Golden/Death Cross Trading Model with Initial Claims filter that yields an average of 16% per year

[Troy Bombardia]

Here's a really simple trading model that yields an average of 16% per year:

Indicator: Buy SSO when the S&P 500 makes a “golden cross”, AND… the 50sma remains above its 200sma for 5 consecutive trading days (in other words, the S&P made a “golden cross” 5 days ago).

*SSO is the S&P 500's 2x leveraged ETF.

Only SELL your SSO if both of these indicators occur:

Indicator 1: When the S&P 500 makes a “death cross”, AND…
Indicator 2: Initial Claims is above its 52 week (1 year) moving average for 8 consecutive weeks (2 months).

This is a step up from the previous Golden/Death Cross Model. It essentially combines fundamentals with technicals, and reduces volatility (vs pure buy and hold)

https://bullmarkets.co/model-golden-death-cross-with-initial-claims-filter/

 

[Saltynuts]

I dunno, have not studied but this smells like data mining gone crazy. Could be wrong though.

 

[padutrader]

yep this will work
i tested a similar technique on pepperstone trading sim in eur usd and it made 58 pips in 4 days...not huge i have made 58 pips regularly in a day using price action but this one using 3 ma gave 5 winners no losers.
for further info see the post in the thread:https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...s-thoughts-on-this.320733/page-4#post-4650940 posts nos 28-30

 

[Jack1960]

Why go through all this effort to lose money? Why not just burn it?

Is it lack of knowledge or simple nievity?

 

[Saltynuts]

Jack1960, this sounds fishy to me as well, but do you know for a fact it is BS? Or are you thinking like me it is just data mined/curve fitting and bears little on what might be profitable going forward? Thanks!

 

[fan27]

Leveraged ETFs are not meant to be bought and held. The fees and structure of how they work will not be anywhere near 2 x the performance of whatever the ETF it is based on.

 

[padutrader]

Jack1960, this sounds fishy to me as well, but do you know for a fact it is BS? Or are you thinking like me it is just data mined/curve fitting and bears little on what might be profitable going forward? Thanks!

if this is BS then what is not BS?

 

[padutrader]

Why go through all this effort to lose money? Why not just burn it?

Is it lack of knowledge or simple nievity?

nowadays because of technology you need not lose money. just try it on demo or put 10 usd in a live account and try it out live

 

[Saltynuts]

if this is BS then what is not BS?

I dunno, its tricky like that!!!!

 

[Saltynuts]

Leveraged ETFs are not meant to be bought and held. The fees and structure of how they work will not be anywhere near 2 x the performance of whatever the ETF it is based on.

I was thinking about this - if he didn't use SSO, but just say SPY, shouldn't it still earn something north of 8%, but well short of 16%, assuming the strategy was legit in the first place? Call it 10%? Would not really beat the buy-and-hold, but maybe less draw down?