"Golden Arches" Project

no sir..I am the one missing it. managing the trade is time consuming and I missed the opportunities. When I retire someday...I will trade full time again.

if you or someone writes me out a check for 5 million with no strings attached, I will reitire immediatley :) hehe..meanwhile I stumble my way through...

Your point is a real good way to take this ....I wish it had occured to me. Sometimes in hindsite everything is so clear.

Michael B.

P.S. you know I can still do this...meanwhile the carry gave some interest to those players.


Quote from walterjennings:

I understand that the CR expects it to go down. The price jumped from 1.6425 to about 1.6600 at the news event. After a day you could have seen that is it not going to correct quickly.

Say the 2nd day you closed your short position at 1.6625. and set a limit order a bit greater than the average daily vol (lets assume 0.005 as an expected daily range) below that to re-short. say at 1.6570.

so if the market corrects at that point. you lose 0.005 vs holding it. as the price continues to go up you can adjust your limit order so it is greater than the daily vol below the open. so at this point the price is around 1.6800. your limit would be around 1.6750~. so now when the price corrects you will make an extra (1.675-1.6625) profit vs holding it. if it doesn't correct you protected yourself from that risk, paying 0.005 risk at the beginning if it corrected right after you closed.

im sure this idea of using short term systems or logic to augment long term trades isn't new. am i missing something?

edit. this idea might be better / idea using forex options.
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the thing about that method which does'nt sit well with me. why is the limit order the correct place to re-enter the position, is that the optimal place? why not use some system to decide when its best to re-enter it? (ie. your current system)

it gets me thinking that it might be similar or better just to cut the loss and let the system decide when it wants to try to make profit, regardless of trying to make back that loss.

maybe fighting to regain losses is a fallacy. and it is more profitable to ignore it and let the system decide the best places to risk your money, rather than letting a loss decide when to risk it, outside regular system operations.
 
would you believe me if I posted that I just do not know....

but when its right it will smack! me in the face like a piece of raw steak...Smackkkk! nope not yet...hit me with another sir...



Quote from walterjennings:

the thing about that method which does'nt sit well with me. why is the limit order the correct place to re-enter the position, is that the optimal place? why not use some system to decide when its best to re-enter it? (ie. your current system)

it gets me thinking that it might be similar or better just to cut the loss and let the system decide when it wants to try to make profit, regardless of trying to make back that loss.

maybe fighting to regain losses is a fallacy. and it is more profitable to ignore it and let the system decide the best places to risk your money, rather than letting a loss decide when to risk it, outside regular system operations.
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for example...

check out EUR/CAD and how nicely price came back in...it was up there in the stratosphere way off the daily CR lines and adjusted BUT RESPECTS THE CR EVENTUALLY...and as you pointer out earlier walterjennings...what does it take to bend the line...

I am not suggesting counter trend trading ...but two things happen...price meets line or line meets price..if your on the right side I wonder what a stop would do to interuppt this...
 
Quote from walterjennings:

the thing about that method which does'nt sit well with me. why is the limit order the correct place to re-enter the position, is that the optimal place? why not use some system to decide when its best to re-enter it? (ie. your current system)

it gets me thinking that it might be similar or better just to cut the loss and let the system decide when it wants to try to make profit, regardless of trying to make back that loss.

maybe fighting to regain losses is a fallacy. and it is more profitable to ignore it and let the system decide the best places to risk your money, rather than letting a loss decide when to risk it, outside regular system operations.
More...

These kinds of things only work out if you trade small enough, but you must wonder about something that will tend to have you trading biggest and with greatest leverage against the strongest of moves. An open loss is usually the worst reason to add to a position.

You really need to do this with OPM, cuz it works until it doesn't and hopefully by then you've taken enough performance fees so you can just shrug off a blowout. But you'll only get one shot at it, for obvious reasons.
 
hello there illiquid...welcome! and salutations

ranking is so important to me...can you discuss your ideas in detail as they arrive?...(sorry I do not mean to put you at task, but your input is needed)

smaccck me/us a good one :) (I think I am ready and can receive, but take it easy and methodical and post in "plain speak", ok?)

I am getting ready to trade this live here in ET and need stops! Generally the method is loose and the direction defined...so there is a lot of room for fine tuning...but not too fine, as it is not my style...

also i " need set and forget, but if you have time to glance you can make it better" methods

Michael B.


Quote from illiquid:

These kinds of things only work out if you trade small enough, but you must wonder about something that will tend to have you trading biggest and with greatest leverage against the strongest of moves. An open loss is usually the worst reason to add to a position.

You really need to do this with OPM, cuz it works until it doesn't and hopefully by then you've taken enough performance fees so you can just shrug off a blowout. But you'll only get one shot at it, for obvious reasons.
More...
 
I am now trading over at Oanda as we speak with 11.5K.

I am in the process of unfragmenting my holdings in other places and rearranging some debt and had a little more money left over than I thought :) This was much needed and really needs not to be discussed here other than the need to explain the delay in published live trading here in ET (gawd what an awful mess I have built..but there was a method to the madness).

I have written off the 6K in FXCM as I consider it gone. heck I might leave it there over NFP (-$3,679.18 with a 6k balance just now)

I am noticing that the 10 period Demarker on the 5M chart with the 0.05 and the 0.95 extreme levels works but the entry does not gurantee the correct place for the longer view...and you can get some extended holds...there might be a better way...but thus far the daily CR is 100% accurate in trend direction identification...Virgin arches are extremely accurate and safe.

I know this thread is becoming long...but newcomers, please start from the beginning, before you post (not you illiquid)

Michael B.
 
I think walterjennings expressed it already, if your system has an edge on "timing" then you should allow it to fully dictate entries with some kind of cutoff on losing positions, as over time and thousands of trades your edge should win out.

You seem to be placing more emphasis on winrate rather than overall gain. Adding to positions while tightening targets is the natural response for trading "out of a hole", but has really nothing to do with what will happen in the market. The one time you get "stuck" will be problematic, especially if it means ignoring all other signals in your system while you try to wait out a bounce. I think maybe a simple time stop can be useful for you, when things are meant to bounce they usually bounce fast, instead of treading sideways for hours or even days (if a time stop is built into your "arch", then by all means use it).
 
ok...

this smacks me and I have already expressed the liking for a time stop earlier here somewhere....

how much time.... would be determined by the secondary arch I believe...

but time stops are generally entry dependant...but it all starts with the demarker...

I am thinking that the original 15M arches are best and I can throw out the comparison with 30 minute and 60 M...but then the CurviRank™ gets screwed up...



Quote from illiquid:

I think walterjennings expressed it already, if your system has an edge on "timing" then you should allow it to fully dictate entries with some kind of cutoff on losing positions, as over time and thousands of trades your edge should win out.

You seem to be placing more emphasis on winrate rather than overall gain. Adding to positions while tightening targets is the natural response for trading "out of a hole", but has really nothing to do with what will happen in the market. The one time you get "stuck" will be problematic, especially if it means ignoring all other signals in your system while you try to wait out a bounce. I think maybe a simple time stop can be useful for you, when things are meant to bounce they usually bounce fast, instead of treading sideways for hours or even days (if a time stop is built into your "arch", then by all means use it).
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

ok...

this smacks me and i have already expressed the liking for a time stop earlier here somewhere....

how much time.... would be determined by the secondary arch I believe...
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backtesting over a few years of data might find a good avg stop time. running a simple optimization alg on the time stop. anyone doing backtests with golden arches care to try this?
 
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