"Golden Arches" Project
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
This is a post from another ET'r in another thread. This actually is, "right on the money".
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1320441#post1320441
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1320441#post1320441
EUR/AUD faces uncanny support....very powerful price action...Its like gravity has no chance....cascades are presented for buyers and then gravity returns...
They can't throw the ball up in the air and keep it up there indefinitely...this is why you should always expose correctly for extended moments like this, as you need time and not necessarily to be at its mercy...The Daily CR does not lie.
They can't throw the ball up in the air and keep it up there indefinitely...this is why you should always expose correctly for extended moments like this, as you need time and not necessarily to be at its mercy...The Daily CR does not lie.
im curious why you didn't close the position after the initial loss, preventing exposer from the slow trend we've seen over the past week, and having a limit order ready to catch and re-enter on the way back down.
i am not 100% convinced about holding positions through large negative swings. getting out at any point of the swing other then the bottom and having your system reenter you 'around the bottom' when the price comes back into line with what you expect should result in less loss.
I use a method where no stops are used and it's worked very well for me. I cut my risk to 2% or less via alternate pairs and in a way hedge my position. Once I see a major trend change I lift the ones in profit, price average the one in loss, and ride it back in the original direction.
I've never taken a drawdown more than 5% and very seldom take a loss. It's possible to make it work but some things need to be added if this method is to survive long term trends in the wrong direction as you stated.
Good luck ES! Just keep changing your method till you find what works for you.
The Daily CR..the exposure had already been INCORRECTLY decided by ME...I am contemplating taking off half for the NFP volatility.
mm...You seem to be a brilliant trader...please check back often my friend...as I stumble in the dark..hehe
but I love to develop methods and the finer points of my trading life are RIGHT NOW...the boring job of execution and keeping the focus for a creative person, is the downfall.
Stay alive...Keep Going...and Good trading to you. Thanks for reading.
Michael B.
P.S. Stops are really not a problem for me...I just need to develop the strategy.
but I love to develop methods and the finer points of my trading life are RIGHT NOW...the boring job of execution and keeping the focus for a creative person, is the downfall.
Stay alive...Keep Going...and Good trading to you. Thanks for reading.
Michael B.
P.S. Stops are really not a problem for me...I just need to develop the strategy.
I understand that the CR expects it to go down. The price jumped from 1.6425 to about 1.6600 at the news event. After a day you could have seen that is it not going to correct quickly.
Say the 2nd day you closed your short position at 1.6625. and set a limit order a bit greater than the average daily vol (lets assume 0.005 as an expected daily range) below that to re-short. say at 1.6570.
so if the market corrects at that point. you lose 0.005 vs holding it. as the price continues to go up you can adjust your limit order so it is greater than the daily vol below the open. so at this point the price is around 1.6800. your limit would be around 1.6750~. so now when the price corrects you will make an extra (1.675-1.6625) profit vs holding it. if it doesn't correct you protected yourself from that risk, paying 0.005 risk at the beginning if it corrected right after you closed.
im sure this idea of using short term systems or logic to augment long term trades isn't new. am i missing something?
edit. this idea might be better / easier using forex options.