There is a signal to go short in EUR/HUF but the spreads do not narrow until about 3:00 am...according to the spread graph...they wll reduce to 25 or 40 from 100
"Golden Arches" Project
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
Code:
TIME 4% CONFI #of INT
[U](MST)[/U] [U]UNITS[/U] [U]PAIR[/U] [U]ACTION[/U] [u]DENCE[/u] [U]SPREAD[/U] [U]PRICE[/U] [U]TP[/U] [U]PIPS[/U] [U]DIFF[/U]
03:54 10,316 EUR/HUF Short 3.5 25 PIPS 251.88 250.84 104 PositiveTrade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker was in the sell zone (between the dotted and solid red DeMareker lines).
Open Trades & Statistics:
Code:
[u]# of UNITS[/u] [u]PAIR[/u] [u]Direction[/u] [u]PRICE[/u] [u]TP[/u] [u]# of PIPS[/u]
51,413 EUR/GBP Short 0.6671 avg. 0.6670 1
10,316 EUR/HUF Short 251.88 250.84 104
Code:
Balance # of DAYS Open
Banked Gain ROI % TRACKED UPL DD Leverage
[color=blue]$14,252.39 $807.16 +5.98 24[/color] [color=red]-$666.34 -4.68% 6.0 :1[/color]The spread narrowed and I got in.
Wednesday 2/21/07 cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code:
7:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.5%
7:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
7:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 1.0% 0.2%
7:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.1%
9:00am USD Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.3%
12:00pm USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks
1:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
2:30pm USD San Fran Fed President Yellen Speaks
5:00pm AUD Leading Index m/m 0.2%
5:50pm JPY Trade Balance (p) 0.7T 1.1TYou know...
It is slow going. For those of you that would like to know the drawdown endured...it bounces from minus 500-700 bucks on a 14k balance, while holding leverage under 10:1. The method yields 6% for 2/3rd's of a month in what I would charactarize as a "large drawdown month", with a position held past the "14 day max duration".
The trading continues during this and the prevalent pair causing the drawdown and the delay of the transfer to "live, measured trading alerts" separated into a journal is the, EUR/GBP.
In an effort to get flat, I cannot just shut down the trading and take unnecessary losses to just do the "clerical switch". It would not be responsible, considering that I am trading with real funds. This is not on the simulator.
I had planned to start a Journal with 14k (originally 17K) last week.
During the wait, there have not been any changes to the trend discovering method that only the curves/arch's can bring. There has been some work on anchoring the CR lines and the Ergodic indicator was eliminated.
In passing the time...I would like to thank those of you reading this thread. This thread will continue throughout the trading here and in the new thread that will start flat and serve as a separation for the alert posts....someday...Currently we have the alerts in here. I am told to please continue with the isolated alerts in the new thread that is formed and waiting. I have discovered that some use those alerts together with their own consensus for decisions.
I currently have two positions open and may add or exit positions during an effort to endure this lengthy EUR/GBP position. There are four events that can take place.
The most likely event occuring is to trade the basket flat...(the third bullet highlighted in blue above)
ElectricSavant
Michael B.
It is slow going. For those of you that would like to know the drawdown endured...it bounces from minus 500-700 bucks on a 14k balance, while holding leverage under 10:1. The method yields 6% for 2/3rd's of a month in what I would charactarize as a "large drawdown month", with a position held past the "14 day max duration".
The trading continues during this and the prevalent pair causing the drawdown and the delay of the transfer to "live, measured trading alerts" separated into a journal is the, EUR/GBP.
In an effort to get flat, I cannot just shut down the trading and take unnecessary losses to just do the "clerical switch". It would not be responsible, considering that I am trading with real funds. This is not on the simulator.
I had planned to start a Journal with 14k (originally 17K) last week.
During the wait, there have not been any changes to the trend discovering method that only the curves/arch's can bring. There has been some work on anchoring the CR lines and the Ergodic indicator was eliminated.
In passing the time...I would like to thank those of you reading this thread. This thread will continue throughout the trading here and in the new thread that will start flat and serve as a separation for the alert posts....someday...Currently we have the alerts in here. I am told to please continue with the isolated alerts in the new thread that is formed and waiting. I have discovered that some use those alerts together with their own consensus for decisions.
I currently have two positions open and may add or exit positions during an effort to endure this lengthy EUR/GBP position. There are four events that can take place.
- The EUR/GBP can be exited at a loss.
- A hedge with another pair that has an inverse correlation can be put on.
- Other positions can come into profit and cause the drawdown to venture into a plus area and the entire basket can be exited in one instance.
- During the effort to trade out from the EUR/GBP another pair can replicate what is happening with the EUR/GBP or replace it, thus see the above three possibilities over again.
The most likely event occuring is to trade the basket flat...(the third bullet highlighted in blue above)
ElectricSavant
Michael B.
During the hold in the EUR/HUF there is a widening and narrowing of the spread by 4 *the amount....which is 25-100 pips...(weekends are more). So the unrealized drawdown gets affected by the simulated movement of price by the marketmaker in the EUR/HUF...
Believe me...at 6:1 leverage, I watch EVERYTHING. Please excuse the small amount of equity that I am trading with, but I cannot let that affect my trading decisions...you saw what happened earlier with the over-exposure in the EUR/AUD. It eventually came back which was good for this method, but my overexposure demonstrated that I was at fault and could not endure the drawdown.
I believe each method has its own signature and the exposure-drawdown balance, can be identified, assuming the method has a good entry edge. "Golden Arch's" is loose as a goose and simply points you in the direction of the waterfall. When your way "up river" there are not any noticable rapids.
So far in forward trading this method, I have discovered three instances where I get "stuck" and the method finds that position. I would like the method to hold for 2-14 days and these discoveries are important in development. Thank for reading and following along.
Surely 6% a month is robust enough for those of you only looking at yield. To pump this up more would require refinement to the method and I do not have or been able to receive any improvments yet. For me to recieve, requires a Smacking!
ElectricSavant
Believe me...at 6:1 leverage, I watch EVERYTHING. Please excuse the small amount of equity that I am trading with, but I cannot let that affect my trading decisions...you saw what happened earlier with the over-exposure in the EUR/AUD. It eventually came back which was good for this method, but my overexposure demonstrated that I was at fault and could not endure the drawdown.
I believe each method has its own signature and the exposure-drawdown balance, can be identified, assuming the method has a good entry edge. "Golden Arch's" is loose as a goose and simply points you in the direction of the waterfall. When your way "up river" there are not any noticable rapids.
So far in forward trading this method, I have discovered three instances where I get "stuck" and the method finds that position. I would like the method to hold for 2-14 days and these discoveries are important in development. Thank for reading and following along.
Surely 6% a month is robust enough for those of you only looking at yield. To pump this up more would require refinement to the method and I do not have or been able to receive any improvments yet. For me to recieve, requires a Smacking!
ElectricSavant
Code:
TIME 4% CONFI #of INT
[U](MST)[/U] [U]UNITS[/U] [U]PAIR[/U] [U]ACTION[/U] [u]DENCE[/u] [U]SPREAD[/U] [U]PRICE[/U] [U]TP[/U] [U]PIPS[/U] [U]DIFF[/U]
09:56 10,538 EUR/HUF Short 3.5 25 PIPS 252.62 251.19 106 PositiveTrade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker breached dotted red line in the DeMarker.
Open Trades & Statistics:
Code:
[u]# of UNITS[/u] [u]PAIR[/u] [u]Direction[/u] [u]PRICE[/u] [u]TP[/u] [u]# of PIPS[/u]
51,413 EUR/GBP Short 0.6671 avg. 0.6670 1
20,854 EUR/HUF Short 252.25 avg. 251.19 106
Code:
Balance # of DAYS Open
Banked Gain ROI % TRACKED UPL DD Leverage
[color=blue]$14,263.48 $818.25 +5.98 26[/color] [color=red]-$428.76 -3.01% 6.9 :1[/color]The Arch's are Maturing and I need to keep the average trade price close. Averaging in is a dangerous geometric progression even in an edge and the Arch's will run out of steam in this trade shortly and I need the time of their strong pull, thus I added to this trade to speed things up...I need to exit with the target soon.
cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code:
Code:
TIME 4% CONFI #of INT
[U](MST)[/U] [U]UNITS[/U] [U]PAIR[/U] [U]ACTION[/U] [u]DENCE[/u] [U]SPREAD[/U] [U]PRICE[/U] [U]TP[/U] [U]PIPS[/U] [U]DIFF[/U]
10:59 13,804 USD/MXN Short 3.5 40 PIPS 11.0419 11.0005 414 PositiveTrade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker breached dotted red line in the DeMarker. Arch's were good.
Open Trades & Statistics:
Code:
[u]# of UNITS[/u] [u]PAIR[/u] [u]Direction[/u] [u]PRICE[/u] [u]TP[/u] [u]# of PIPS[/u]
51,413 EUR/GBP Short 0.6671 avg. 0.6670 1
20,854 EUR/HUF Short 252.25 avg. 251.19 106
13,804 USD/MXN Short 11.0419 11.0005 414
Code:
Balance # of DAYS Open
Banked Gain ROI % TRACKED UPL DD Leverage
[color=blue]$14,263.48 $818.25 +5.98 26[/color] [color=red]-$462.98 -3.25% 7.9 :1[/color]cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code:
USD/THB has been added to the watchlist, though it does not have much history yet. It must be new for North Finance.
Michael B.
Michael B.
Hey..I looked at a YM futures chart for the fun of it with the arch's...
It a long...puddycat...
It a long...puddycat...
I added EUR/CZK to the watchlist..in MT4 NF feed the EUR/CCK is the same movement...one less decimal point...
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