"Golden Arches" Project

Dart_target.gif
TARGET ADJUSTMENT
Code: 
TIME    4%                        CONFI                          #of    INT
[U](MST)[/U]   [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]   [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]  [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]   [U]DIFF[/U]
21:58   30,925  EUR/GBP  Short    3.0    2 PIPS  0.6632  0.6631  1      Pos
Stop: not yet
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. CR is running out of steam.


Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]    [u]PAIR[/u]       [u]Direction[/u]    [u]PRICE[/u]         [u]TP[/u]        [u]# of PIPS[/u]
28,167        CAD/JPY    Short        103.81        103.21    60
30,925        EUR/GBP    Short        0.6632 avg.   0.6631     1
 9,957        USD/HKD    Long         7.8136        7.8164    28 
58,781        NZD/USD    Long         0.6882 avg.   0.6883     1
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$13,968.86    $523.63   +3.85   15[/color]          [color=red]-$279.00    -2.01%   8.3 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

Tues. 2/13/07 cst
Code: 
1:00am   EUR German GDP q/q (p)               0.6%     0.6%   
1:45am   EUR French GDP q/q (p)               0.5%     0.0%   
3:00am   EUR Italian GDP q/q (p)              0.4%     0.3%   
3:30am   GBP CPI m/m                         -0.5%     0.6%   
3:30am   GBP Core CPI y/y                     1.8%     1.8%   
3:30am   GBP RPI m/m                         -0.2%     0.8%   
4:00am   EUR Industrial Production m/m        0.4%     0.2%   
4:00am   EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment    5.2     -3.6   
4:00am   EUR GDP q/q (p)                      0.6%     0.2%   
7:30am   USD Trade Balance                  -59.5B   -58.2B   
7:30am   CAD Trade Balance                    4.7B     4.7B   
3:45pm   NZD FPI m/m                         -0.5%   
5:30pm   AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m       7.3%   
5:50pm   JPY Trade Balance (r)               1.18T     1.03T   
10:30pm  JPY Industrial Production m/m (f)    0.7%      0.7%
 
Dart_target.gif
EXIT @ 1 PIP PROFIT
Code: 
TIME    4%                        CONFI                          #of    INT
[U](MST)[/U]   [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]   [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]  [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]   [U]DIFF[/U]
07:42   58,781  NZD/USD  Long            4 PIPS  0.6882  0.6883  1      Pos
Stop: not yet
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. CR is not in agreement with the Daily CR.

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]    [u]PAIR[/u]       [u]Direction[/u]    [u]PRICE[/u]         [u]TP[/u]        [u]# of PIPS[/u]
28,167        CAD/JPY    Short        103.81        103.21    60
30,925        EUR/GBP    Short        0.6632 avg.   0.6631     1
 9,957        USD/HKD    Long         7.8136        7.8164    28
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$13,977.51    $532.28   +3.89   16[/color]          [color=red]-$384.00    -2.75%   5.5 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

Glad to get out of this position. I have carried it since 01/30/07.

Tues. 2/13/07 cst
Code: 
3:45pm   NZD FPI m/m                         -0.5%   
5:30pm   AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m       7.3%   
5:50pm   JPY Trade Balance (r)               1.18T     1.03T   
10:30pm  JPY Industrial Production m/m (f)    0.7%      0.7%
 
This EUR/GBP short is really tough.

The 4 hr. CR is maturing into a long, which means the next 7-14 days, will be an uptrend.

The Daily CR is short and will be that way for several weeks.

The Demarker on the 4hr. is not really respected the way I like it to be recently.

The recent news popped this pair higher and it is holding after the news.

Ergodic...no help...

I got real desperate and looked at the weekly and monthly CR's...they are short...exposure is light with just one "add to" so far and I sucked in the target to just one pip...and I am still 68 pips away from an exit, in light trading. (You guys watched that NZD/USD trade with me and I just was able to escape from it...it took 14 days and resembles this trade very much)

Here is the question: SHOULD I "ADD TO"? OR WAIT? ANYBODY? I NEED YOUR HELP CURVIDEVIANTS...PLUS I WANT TO SEE IF YOUR LEARNING..HEHE OR IF I AM!

Michael B.
 
rjb1024,

Could you provide a default download for the Ergodic values (everything else can stay the same)in the input tab to be...2,6,9,3, & 2. I need to slow down the Ergodic just a bit and take some chop out of it...

Naturally the users can change it to what they will, but lets make the default values with these new #'s, when you have the time. No hurry as they are all manually changed in my charts and I am trading with them.

If you do not agree with these settings or your research reveals other ideas...then by all means share...I really am not an optimizer or curvefitter, I just needed to slow the Ergodic down for this method, considering the "time-duration" (2-14 days) of trades planned...and I am not a big fan of indicators believe it or not...except for the CR...:)

SlowlyGettingInTuneSavant
Michael B.


Quote from rjb1024:

re indicators for CR system
Hey ES and others. I have enjoyed reading everyones contributions to this thread. As previously discussed please find attached some indicators.
1. cr_v1d (with channel width)
2. SupRes (support and resistance fractals)
3. ergodic (ergodic on price)

plus a script fifo might find useful for exporting CR data to spreadsheets for financial modelling...
4. "cr_v1 export" (put this into experts\scripts folder)

cheers
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

This EUR/GBP short is really tough.

The 4 hr. CR is maturing into a long, which means the next 7-14 days, will be an uptrend.

The Daily CR is short and will be that way for several weeks.

The Demarker on the 4hr. is not really respected the way I like it to be recently.

The recent news popped this pair higher and it is holding after the news.

Ergodic...no help...

I got real desperate and looked at the weekly and monthly CR's...they are short...exposure is light with just one "add to" so far and I sucked in the target to just one pip...and I am still 68 pips away from an exit, in light trading. (You guys watched that NZD/USD trade with me and I just was able to escape from it...it took 14 days and resembles this trade very much)

Here is the question: SHOULD I "ADD TO"? OR WAIT? ANYBODY? I NEED YOUR HELP CURVIDEVIANTS...PLUS I WANT TO SEE IF YOUR LEARNING..HEHE OR IF I AM!

Michael B.
More...


fwiw, I wouldn't add in just as yet. Plot MACD12269 on the Daily. Looks like a typical MACD cross of the center line. However it shot straight into overbought territory, high band. Similar to previous moves on April 4, July 4, Jan 4 and surrounding areas.
Here is what I would do. Wait till MACD crosses below signal line above 0, then average in, momentum (MACD) and trend (DAILY CR) will be on your side, plus it will be overbought territory. Just as a jump out the window stop, I would also place a stop just above the previous peak, below 0.6762 somewhere. This is all assuming these risks are acceptable to you and the Daily CR stays short. Having said that, don't know about targets just yet so if this were to execute, I would bail at break even.

I've been able to get some data and will post as soon as it is compiled. No out of memory issues with 4hr data but still takes a long time.
 
ohhh. i did not know this method used the macd..I do not have enough room on these little squares..

It's interesting to see how different traders trade this..The use of the arch's with your own methods is just awesome!

Thanks fifo...


Quote from fifo:

fwiw, I wouldn't add in just as yet. Plot MACD12269 on the Daily. Looks like a typical MACD cross of the center line. However it shot straight into overbought territory, high band. Similar to previous moves on April 4, July 4, Jan 4 and surrounding areas.
Here is what I would do. Wait till MACD crosses below signal line above 0, then average in, momentum (MACD) and trend (DAILY CR) will be on your side, plus it will be overbought territory. Just as a jump out the window stop, I would also place a stop just above the previous peak, below 0.6762 somewhere. This is all assuming these risks are acceptable to you and the Daily CR stays short. Having said that, don't know about targets just yet so if this were to execute, I would bail at break even.

I've been able to get some data and will post as soon as it is compiled. No out of memory issues with 4hr data but still takes a long time.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

ohhh. i did not know this method used the macd..I do not have enough room on these little squares..

It's interesting to see how different traders trade this..

Thanks fifo...
More...

Note that I am more comfortable waiting for a long setup than going short. I went back a few posts to find out the reasoning behind this trade and it was mentioned that "it is still a valid short ... based on the agreement of the daily and 4hr CR".

I think although the 4hr CR may seem in agreement with the daily it really isn't. The rate of change must be taken into account as it is a lagging indicator. Note that the shape of the curve can be used as more specific of a criteria. A "U" shaped curve (or part of it) shows slowdown in the downside but more importantly actually means price is moving up. An "n" shaped curve means an increase to the downside and price is moving down.

In the case of EUR/GBP, the Daily is "n" shaped and the 4hr is "U" shaped. Mid-trade, we are stuck with the disagreement of the 4hr and daily CR.

Bottom line, maybe the agreement of the CRs need to also be in shape and not just direction: "n" for shorts and "U" for longs. After all, this is why we use regression to the 2nd order....
 
ES, try these, they are in standard settings on Neoticker.

Daily - .6782 Prev week low, .6776 prev week support, .6947 Prev week resistance, .6898 prev week high.

Look at where the Prev wk low and support are, tooooo close, it would take some heavy down volume to move below these levels.

Now these are the standard settings, of course mine are tweaked so that they are as sharp as a VIPER fang, but tweaking is not an absolute need, you can get a good idea just by the standard settings. I think that by using basic levels you will refine your entries and be able to build a consensus system. There has to be some kind of level code floating around for the platform y'all are using.

A while back you asked about data feeds etc. I strongly URGE the new traders to get a real platform like Neoticker, and an esignal data feed. If you trade with Gain, Coes, Hotspot etc their feed comes right off of esignal. The HOTS feed is close to CurreneX and right on the IB feed.

Pay the money, get something where the support is great and the product is of a very high quality. Also if you are a programmer, and you have a permenant Neoticker license, they have an open API that would allow you to build a "data server" plugin thingie to link to OANDAS API, then you could have OANDAS data on an advanced charting platform.
At least use the free trial of Esig and Neo to give it a try. Also with Neoticker there is no learning a new language, you can program in c++, VB and others.

The Ever You Asked VIPER
 
yeah...I am finding that arches can change and shift as one candle drops off "back there" and a new one comes on...

4 hr. arches start to change in longer holds...not in the planned trajectory either...
 
Oh, I forgot. Why is it that traders will pay for the sunday, saturday, hockey, basketball, nascar, etc tickets to watch sports on the sat or cable but wont pay for high quality charting?

The Ever Venomous And Clark Howardesque VIPER
 
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