I'm not going to dictate anything to you here, but just understand that so long as you are making green, NEVER do that "coulda woulda shoulda" thing. It will agitate you to no end.
I have been on both ends of that poisoned line of thought.
The standard "Gee, if I had just held onto the winner", and then the rarefied "Holy shit, my EXIT trade was RIGHT AT THE MAX OF THE MOVE IN MY FAVOR".
To be honest, I'd be happy just getting out of all trades positive, because trying to strive for max MFE is pointless. Not worth the aggravation.
I totally get what you are saying. Thanks for the advice. I know no one including myself will ever get the max MFE on every trade or even on most trades.
That's NOT my point.
What I'm trying to say is that these trades are from well defined set-ups with edge. To get out before the pattern fully unfold is suboptimal behavior in my mind. I know it's probabilistic and you can never know for sure.
So, thanks to the wild gyrations of the market, I have been presented with several opportunities to trade reversals from bottom successfully. In the past, I would have gotten KILLED on days like today and this week in general.
I still remember how traumatic Feb 5, 2018 was! The VIX implosion. I was totally decimated. Destroyed!
I was totally destroyed because I would not wait for the right signal of a bottom and reversing. I would get long right at the beginning of the downward move and held on too long without getting out. Not cutting losses short.
Now my recent reversal trades were methodical and well planned. Calm and collected. Not panicked trades.
A few months ago in thread that I've been writing titled "Made some progress but feels a lot more to go", I was glad that I came out slightly positive instead of being decimated on huge downtrend days.
Well, today I'm proud to report that not only I didn't get decimated I'm nicely positive. Of course, it could have been a LOT bigger especially with 100pts swing every twenty minutes throughout the day. But directionally this is heading in the right way in terms of trader development.
When the next reversal trade comes along I'll time it better in the entry(hopefully at the bottom bar or close to it) and hold much longer on the exit(as long as it continues to go up).
Big regret today was I got out for such puny tiny chunk of the eventual HUGE UP TREND in NG! But profits wise, it still ended up being nice and reasonable because I trade size with NG vs NQ and YM. Many multiples of NQ/YM. So while I capture a bigger swing in NQ/YM they were on smaller size. I capture smaller swing with NG but with BIGGER SIZE.
Next part of my trader development is to RIDE the big trend with BIG SIZE. That's my ultimate goal. Once I can do that then I can say I'm "free". It's not just about the money though the money would be much bigger and nicer too. But it's about finally recognizing a good trend and riding it with size. That's how all the great traders do itl That's when I can kick my trader development to the next level.
Also with today's down move, I missed out on a good short. I was too slow. I tried to click on it and prices moved beyond me. I should set up hot keys.
So short 100 pts down then reverse and go long for 100 pts up on YM. That would be the ideal. Not that I will get it right all the time. But consistently capturing a big chunk of these big moves with size is glorious!
For YM/NQ I'm still practicing with them. So I don't mind trading smaller size and their moves are so fast and violent that I'm not sure if I want to trade size with them just yet. I need to get more confident and comfortable with them.
So, basically I'm training myself to become better and better by constantly recognizing the right setup and trying to hold them longer and longer until I'm near max MFE. Not each time. But the more I can do that out of each trade then the better trader I will become.
Kaizen. Constant and never ending improvements.