Gold

SunTrader said:
So you ignore the obvious. Why?
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The mean reversion trades are very profitable...probably my favorite...they tend to be profitable immediately. So many "trends" are a psyche job to suck traders in before the reversal, in my opinion. To me, trends definitely aren't "obvious", but there's more than one way to beat this game.:)
 
In this modern age, I doubt COT data is relevant / useful.

anyway, if you find COT data useful, go ahead and use it.
 
dozu888 said:
check the COT... large specs are net long right now, how do they get 'very short'?

anyway - it's not about retail schmucks moving the market.... it's about where they have been pushed to, by the brain washing from the smart money, be that commercial or large spec.. hence the perfect contrarian indicator.

COT, commercial, large specs are difficult to read. Commercial may have the first hand info, but some are forced to hedge because they are commercial and have to keep the biz running... large spec is a mixed bag, you have some really smart people there.

but small specs - you can categorically call them the dumb money.
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I don't know why I can't get most current chart, but this is a chart of managed futures (hedge funds) long and short through 7-24-18. The hedge funds have been a dumb money indicator for the last several years now.

COT_000007.png
 
maxinger said:
In this modern age, I doubt COT data is relevant / useful.

anyway, if you find COT data useful, go ahead and use it.
More...
I don't use it for day trades or swing trades. I use it for investing purposes though...when and where to accumulate mining shares. I don't really invest that much in the metals...mostly junior miners right now.
 
Investors purchase gold for a variety of reasons, but the following are the most common ones:
  1. Hedge against inflation
  2. Hedge against global instability
  3. Speculate on demand growth
  4. Portfolio diversification
 
genkaplevis said:
Investors purchase gold for a variety of reasons, but the following are the most common ones:
  1. Hedge against inflation
  2. Hedge against global instability
  3. Speculate on demand growth
  4. Portfolio diversification
More...

decades ago, people bought gold (and sell US$) to hedge against instability / crisis.

recently people bought US$ (and sell gold ) to hedge against instability / crisis.
 
On ASX today, (11.50am) gold index XGD is down 3.4%.
That's an ominous sign, but will wait for close to see if it recovers.
Keeping in context tho, still above 2, 3, 4, & 5 day lows, so no panic required yet.
St. Barbara, gold mkt darling, down 9%.
 
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