gold

Gold over the next month: your opinion?

  • buy

    Votes: 9 50.0%
  • sell

    Votes: 5 27.8%
  • hold

    Votes: 4 22.2%

  • Total voters
    18
in the last two years gold has done very well the last two weeks of Oct. I just read a great paper on the determinants of the gold price --> http://econwpa.wustl.edu:80/eps/fin/papers/0403/0403003.pdf

they are...

1. currency purchasing power
2. inflation
3. inverse of price earnings (this was a big suprise to me)

this cleared up a lot about the possibility of gold rising during a deflation. if p/e ratios rise, gold likely rises too in almost any environment.
 
GC.GIF


The seasonal seems to say that being long here is going against the flow.

KaW, thanks for the link to article.
 
looks like in the short term once again

precious metals are outperforming any of the

fiat currencies ...

ADEN sisters comments below ....

www.kitco.com/ind/taf/nov162005.html


(gotta love those newsletter writers though
at the end of their bullish commentary one see this note ... )

-Gold could then decline in a downward correction to test its major 65-week moving average now at $427, but the major trend would remain up.-

in other words
... a highly leveraged trader could be wiped
out on any wild drop to the 65 week MA , but
the Aden sisters would still be bullish on gold
and gold could of course run its course higher
(but without the trader who lost his trading stake)

:p
 
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