Gold vs bitcoin ...

[semperfrosty]

We dropped down to 63.5K earlier today and we are currently trading at 63815 as I type. You all thought I was only FUDing. Well, you could have sold at 70k (or higher when I spoke about the reversal) and bought it back here, which would have been enough to send your kid to a college for a semester without taking out a needless loan. But some of you fondly called that "tick fucking".

Whatever. I'm done with Bitcoin, as far as sharing my views are concerned.

BTW one last prediction: I feel confident we will drop below 60K.

The call was spot on.

So far anyway.

 

[semperfrosty]

I'm replying to myself here because I recall lots of people saying they are waiting for 10k, and I was one of these guys as well, and ended up chasing the price much higher. At 20k I bought very little, and at 30k, I hated buying more because now I got half as much as I would have at 15k.

And then when I got more money, after it broke out above that 50-52k range, it never looked back, and I missed putting all my chips in then. I chased all the way up to the 60's to be honest. Now 16k was over a year ago, so most of my entries the past year weren't possible since there was no money at the time of the 15.5k low, but I remember a very good quote I read a while ago that DCA is great in a bear market, but inferior in a bull market. which requires an all in approach.

If we don't make it down below 60k (there is that obvious low at 59k that could break or be front run), then many people will likely not start scaling back in until close to 70k, if not higher. So for them, getting out at 69 or 68 when you said it wasn't looking good might not in fact have been the good play. But I certainly agree that if you can have a process where you miss the 10-20% drawdowns, and always get in for a better price than where you got out, you will do better.

IMO DCAing in a rising market is like being on a train,just sitting in the last carriage.DCAing whilst the market is declining is like youre slowly making your way to that front first class carriage.

When its rising youre just keeping up,when its falling youre slowly advancing your position.

This thinking also helped me mentally during the dips,including the little one we're having right now.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

We are talking about 2 different things. It is a speculative, Ponzi-like instrument that has had quite a run. That doesn't make it economically relevant apart from its mass hysteria trading price. What I was "wrong" about, if anything, is that I didn't think it would reach the heights that it did. But that does not validate its premise. It is still founded on make-believe and whole cloth, with all kinds of claims of "disruptions" thrown in for good measure. You know, PR.

A bubble doesn't last just a moment in time. And I will admit that it's hard to believe that it lasted this long and remains ongoing. That you're making money is absolutely great. Good for you. And because you are net positive means that it cannot possibly be a bubble? Especially when there are all kinds of people talking it up at one convention after another, preaching the gospel to mostly young, gullible hodlers who don't know they're being taken for a ride at their own and potentially considerable expense?

Yeah, I know. This time it's different.

I just hope you have a stop loss in place. Just in case the world is round.

A couple things:

If you are an investor, and you thought something was going to zero, but instead in quadrupled, guess what: you were wrong

you insist on calling it a Ponzi scheme and a bubble but I challenge you to this: Please try to find another bubble that has lasted for 15 years, that has had five declines of over 80% and come back every time and has had the kind of performance that bitcoin has had over the long run. This is an asset that has 80% volatility in an sharpe ratio over 1 for over a decade+. I honestly didn’t even think a sharpe ratio of 1+ from buying and holding a volatile asset like this was even possible for such a long period.

The performance is the performance, you can’t change that. Now I know you think this is all of a flimsy premise/ponzi/bubble etc, but the market obviously disagrees with you. At what point do you just think “wow maybe I’m missing something here” or does that just never happen?

 

[Frederick Foresight]

The performance is the performance, you can’t change that. Now I know you think this is all of a flimsy premise/ponzi/bubble etc, but the market obviously disagrees with you.

The market always disagrees until it doesn't. But, yeah, I certainly can't time a bubble burst when it is still raging.

you insist on calling it a Ponzi scheme and a bubble but I challenge you to this: Please try to find another bubble that has lasted for 15 years

Why? What would that prove? As for the legs that crypto has had, and continues to have, let's not lose sight of the fact that it is regularly being talked up in evangelical-like gatherings telling everyone to hang in there and hodl. I don't recall such a concerted effort to keep the faith for any of the other bubbles. So I suppose that may have some bearing on its duration.

But why do you care? Just buy the dip and keep buying the dipping when it occurs. And then you can post a shit-eating grin with your orange Lambo.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

The market always disagrees until it doesn't. But, yeah, I certainly can't time a bubble burst when it is still raging.


Why? What would that prove? As for the legs that crypto has had, and continues to have, let's not lose sight of the fact that it is regularly being talked up in evangelical-like gatherings telling everyone to hang in there and hodl. I don't recall such a concerted effort to keep the faith for any of the other bubbles. So I suppose that may have some bearing on its duration.

But why do you care? Just buy the dip and keep buying the dipping when it occurs. And then you can post a shit-eating grin with your orange Lambo.

I don’t want a lambo. I hate the “save fun staying poor” bullshit. You will never hear me say that stuff.

I guess the core of my question was: can the market speak loud enough for you to listen/rethink/have a more open mind.

I think I have my answer: absolutely not.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I don’t want a lambo. I hate the “save fun staying poor” bullshit. You will never hear me say that stuff.

I guess the core of my question was: can the market speak loud enough for you to listen/rethink/have a more open mind.

I think I have my answer: absolutely not.

It’s not the market. The market clearly loves the stuff. It’s the premise. I just don’t buy into the premise. And herd mentality will not convince me. Listen, I am not being argumentative for its own sake. The very premise of crypto in its present form just strikes me as utter bullshit. No amount of market nosebleed will change that. Clearly I have missed out. But that’s okay; I have other stuff to keep me busy. Crypto is not the only game in town.

 

[themickey]

But why do you care? Just buy the dip and keep buying the dipping when it occurs. And then you can post a shit-eating grin with your orange Lambo.

Ahhhhhh haha
Someone's pissed off, lmao

 

[orbit23]

A couple things:

If you are an investor, and you thought something was going to zero, but instead in quadrupled, guess what: you were wrong

you insist on calling it a Ponzi scheme and a bubble but I challenge you to this: Please try to find another bubble that has lasted for 15 years, that has had five declines of over 80% and come back every time and has had the kind of performance that bitcoin has had over the long run. This is an asset that has 80% volatility in an sharpe ratio over 1 for over a decade+. I honestly didn’t even think a sharpe ratio of 1+ from buying and holding a volatile asset like this was even possible for such a long period.

The performance is the performance, you can’t change that. Now I know you think this is all of a flimsy premise/ponzi/bubble etc, but the market obviously disagrees with you. At what point do you just think “wow maybe I’m missing something here” or does that just never happen?

Ever heard of Bernie Madoff? His ponzi scheme lasted for 18 years, possibly even much longer. It grew to about 65B$ in size - about the same as the Tethers marketcap is these days if you account for inflation.

Whoever called it "wrong" might be just wrong on the timing. The whole purpose of a ponzi scheme is to lure in new investors on the premise of legitimacy.

In a traditional ponzi scheme, people ARE getting paid out and the scheme is working, luring in new participants.

In cryptocurrencies, there is no promise of APY, but people buy because the price is going up. And the reason why price is going up is possibly because of Tether. They might be de-facto counterfeiting the US dollar. How do you think that is going to end up?

The whole premise behind the Bitcoin ponzi scheme is the "number go up" in order to attract new investors.

This is one of the problem of people calling for the demise because you are wrong no timing, you lose the credibility, people will laugh at your "failed predictions" and then in the end everyone gets rekt.

 

[johnarb]

A year ago, the whining nocoiner bitches of ET could have bought 10 bitcoins for a total of $150,000 investment

When bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 each in the next 5 years, they would have $10,000,000 and could sell 1 bitcoin for $1,000,000 and hodl the rest

It's so fucking simple, but the whining nocoiner bitches are too stupid to understand simple math

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772071348598198669

 

[GlobalMacro90]

Comparing madoff to bitcoin is so stupid it doesn’t warrant a response. Get a clue