Gold vs bitcoin ...

schizo said:
Hey, there was 1 dude who got his head out just in time. Others wouldn't listen. :banghead: :sneaky:
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Do you mean yourself??? LOL... I thought you were calling for a possible test of 60k and then back up. This is of course turning out to be a really good call. But you did still think it was going higher. I take it though that you're just interested in bitcoin as a trading vehicle?
 
NoahA said:
Do you mean yourself??? LOL... I thought you were calling for a possible test of 60k and then back up. This is of course turning out to be a really good call. But you did still think it was going higher. I take it though that you're just interested in bitcoin as a trading vehicle?
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We dropped down to 63.5K earlier today and we are currently trading at 63815 as I type. You all thought I was only FUDing. Well, you could have sold at 70k (or higher when I spoke about the reversal) and bought it back here, which would have been enough to send your kid to a college for a semester without taking out a needless loan. But some of you fondly called that "tick fucking".

Whatever. I'm done with Bitcoin, as far as sharing my views are concerned.

BTW one last prediction: I feel confident we will drop below 60K.
 
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schizo said:
We dropped down to 63.5K earlier today and we are currently trading at 63815 as I type. You all thought I was only FUDing. Well, you could have sold at 70k (or higher when I spoke about the reversal) and bought it back here, which would have been enough to send your kid to a college for a semester without taking out a needless loan. But some of you fondly called that "tick fucking".

Whatever. I'm done with Bitcoin, as far as sharing my views are concerned.

BTW one last prediction: I feel confident we will drop below 60K.
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That's fair, but you have to get this right several times in a row in order to actually realize a return that would be above just holding. Every week I watch another podcast where people cry about selling out too soon. Some guy the other day said he bought a house a few years ago, and holding that bitcoin turned out to have been the superior play if he in fact kept the coins and took out a mortgage.

So I think that to make it work, you have to also time the re-entry well, not just the exit. Most will not be able to do this, or if they exit, they are too scared to get back in. I think John is looking at everything from the perspective of what is good for most people. He has shown that he is also trading actively other coins, so he isn't against trading, but he seems to be against trading bitcoin, which I think makes sense for most people. He was harsh, I grant you that, but I'm not surprised given how much shit he has been given over the years. And no matter how many thousands of percent bitcoin has gained, there are still yahoos on here who question everything. They hate it so much that they continue to FUD it every day, and that takes a toll I think.

Please do update us though when you think the right time is to enter a long position again. I'd like to somewhat forward test your calls if you don't mind sharing.
 
NoahA said:
Please do update us though when you think the right time is to enter a long position again. I'd like to somewhat forward test your calls if you don't mind sharing.
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I'm replying to myself here because I recall lots of people saying they are waiting for 10k, and I was one of these guys as well, and ended up chasing the price much higher. At 20k I bought very little, and at 30k, I hated buying more because now I got half as much as I would have at 15k.

And then when I got more money, after it broke out above that 50-52k range, it never looked back, and I missed putting all my chips in then. I chased all the way up to the 60's to be honest. Now 16k was over a year ago, so most of my entries the past year weren't possible since there was no money at the time of the 15.5k low, but I remember a very good quote I read a while ago that DCA is great in a bear market, but inferior in a bull market. which requires an all in approach.

If we don't make it down below 60k (there is that obvious low at 59k that could break or be front run), then many people will likely not start scaling back in until close to 70k, if not higher. So for them, getting out at 69 or 68 when you said it wasn't looking good might not in fact have been the good play. But I certainly agree that if you can have a process where you miss the 10-20% drawdowns, and always get in for a better price than where you got out, you will do better.
 
NoahA said:
If we don't make it down below 60k (there is that obvious low at 59k that could break or be front run), then many people will likely not start scaling back in until close to 70k, if not higher. So for them, getting out at 69 or 68 when you said it wasn't looking good might not in fact have been the good play. But I certainly agree that if you can have a process where you miss the 10-20% drawdowns, and always get in for a better price than where you got out, you will do better.
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Okay this will be last reply on Bitcoin.

What I will say is this: the selloff has been pretty orderly up till now. However, if Bitcoin should break below 60K (and not just a minor dip, but say it goes down to 57K), you might see some panic selling. You can accuse me of FUD and whatnot, but I don't care. I only speak what I see based on my experience.

As always, good luck. And please don't bother me with further rationalizations on why Bitcoin is different. :)
 
Gold is not volatile, bitcoin is volatile as it's a new asset, it is still on a price discovery to infinity

  • Bitcoin did not go from $100 to $60,000 in 10 years without volatility
  • Bitcoin did not go from $3,000 to $60,000 in 5 years without volatility


Bitcoin will go from $60,000 to $1,000,000 within 5 years with volatility

But gold will still not be volatile and stuck below $3,000
 
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