Gold unfazed by the FED

xandman

xandman

The FED move was telegraphed from months ago and implied volatility on options do not indicate a reaction to the actual event.

I think gold is going to puke down to it's previous channel. But if it happens before the FED meeting, I will be sorely pissed.

upload_2016-12-9_13-15-56.png
 
Very snazzy website.

He is using the COT as a stochastic rather than seeing who was involved in the past trend. The COT is a rearward looking indicator. The problem with stochastic indicators is that they scale down when new data beyond the current range is added, thus making the previous data not so dramatic and the current data more so..

Additionally, his interpretation of the decline in retail speculators is "net short". I just interpret it as less longs. My chart has net figures.

His chart from his website:

upload_2016-12-9_15-9-19.png
 
Last edited:
Sid seems to be about 50/50, (just spit-balling numbers). I've seen the guy post uncannily accurate projections in markets (first one that comes to mind is the peak in equities a year ago in early November). He had a few good calls in crude and an excellent one in bonds...This year, from what I could see, he was early and probably wrong on the decline in equities (albeit he was about a week early on the cycle low date for equities)...in fact that was the worst decline going into the election (just one week of relentless selling)...

I think there is a good reason why so many gravitate towards equities..whether implied or not, bulls can basically get bailed out of bad trades by a larger unidirectional market...one off events like last Jan-Feb are an anomaly, and realistically, prices recover in short order (either a massive one week spike higher) or one day wonder rallies..OTOH, you go long crude or gold at the wrong prices and you may not get bailed out of that trade.
 
imo gold and bonds could be a massive buying opportunity heading into fed minutes next week

if they don't hike, there will be massive short covering but if they hike it could still shoot up after a sell off because this is what's expected
 
Do you have a rough guess of the magnitude? Would we fill the gap between 114-116 in GLD within a few sessions?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top