Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

Db had mentioned in another thread that the hourly is showing a hinge, which I had failed to recognize. This indicates indecision and contextualizes better what I had written above regarding the confusion about direction. The good thing is that despite not recognizing the hinge the meaning inferred from the tussle between demand and supply was still the same.

 

[Roffe]

Db had mentioned in another thread that the hourly is showing a hinge, which I had failed to recognize. This indicates indecision and contextualizes better what I had written above regarding the confusion about direction. The good thing is that despite not recognizing the hinge the meaning inferred from the tussle between demand and supply was still the same.

Note though how beautifully we've been staying over the 50% retrace between the 28th and the 24th.

 

[Gringo]

Market seems to have formed a hinge. It's too early to declare it to be a bona fide hinge but the signs there almost there. We'll need some resolution here before having some idea what the traders are trying to do.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Price is still moving between the hinge.

 

[recession2016]

Price is still moving between the hinge.

i get the feeling this hinge will resolve itself next week with the fed minutes

 

[Gringo]

i get the feeling this hinge will resolve itself next week with the fed minutes

Price is already outside the hinge. Whether it is resolved or not is yet to be determined. I have come to rely less on my gut to minimize gut wrenching experiences.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

The first thing evident is that it's not easy for price to stay above 4335. Yes it went above but demand wasn't enough to keep it there. The swing low around 4341 was also taken out. We've had a first drop and if there's retracement back up towards 4350/60 area I might look into taking a dive.

There was a chance to take a short as DL was broken and retracement took place. I wasn't paying attention at that time and wanted to see more weakness as the recent trend has been up without any major pullbacks along the way.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

It seems chickens don't really end up getting the goose.

 

[Gringo]

Just waiting for traders to decide what they want to do. Perhaps it is the Fed announcement that's holding everyone in check. Once the decision it made we might get some solid movement. Intra-day seems not bad if one's prepared for a quick entry.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Price pushed upwards after the Fed rate decision. The strength seemed to be there. Yet, within the hour all gains evaporated as demand buckled fast. Supply took over around the median of the TR which happens to also be a lower trend line of the TC out of which price fell after a month or so ago (visible on weekly).

A few things became apparent after this sudden weakness. Price has trouble staying in the TC with 4340 as the bottom. It may appear that price is still close to the bottom and may push up again. This would be a retracement on the daily and hourly if none isn't too tight with the DL.

Notice that the S/R at the bottom of the TR isn't really doing much to price. In other words, to me it's not acting like a strong S/R and as a result deserving of lesser attention. There is some influence but it's not like price is touching a live wire and getting a kick. Notice the behaviour around the median (4440) of the TR and see the difference. That was a kind of kick that shows the intent of the buyers and sellers.

What's more important is the behaviour of price. Price is zigzagging here and at least I am now waiting for another rise and a failure to look to the downside. In case demand gets its footing, price as a result will rise, it would negate the signs of weakness and give us a hint to re-evaluate.

All in all I am looking to the downside and hoping price gets close to the 4400 area or higher to get as close to the danger point, which for me is around 4440 for now.

On the weekly price is still in the retrace mode after the large fall out of the TC. This also gives the potential that if a reasonable entry is made and price does crumble, it could end up being a strong move. It's no guarantee this is how it's going to unfold but when larger bar intervals align with smaller bar intervals interesting moves can take place.

Gringo