So what's your verdict regarding the direction of gold and bond for the month of May? The numbers are out.
Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action
- Thread starter Gringo
- Start date
So what's your verdict regarding the direction of gold and bond for the month of May? The numbers are out.
Depends on how much ukraine is regarded. If it breaks out above 1305 and stays there, you can enter a long. If it doesn't rip higher on monday, then it's a possible short.
QQQ are closer to the trend line of the downward sloping trend channel. There's also a hinge highlighting the indecision of the buyers and sellers. I haven't been able to find anything clear enough to take a position. Perhaps it's the May blues or perhaps it's just a brief rest.
What I am looking at is to see whether an opportunity to short presents itself when price is around the upper trend line. So far that's all I am looking for. If price changes its behavior to shun the trend channel and leaves it for good to the upside, I'll of course have to change in that case what I'll be looking for.
Close to 87 is the apex of the hinge. This area by its very nature is where a large number of transactions between buyers and sellers take place. As a result, trading around this area is fraught with peril. Only the most daring can handle the gyrations around the apex.
Gringo
What I am looking at is to see whether an opportunity to short presents itself when price is around the upper trend line. So far that's all I am looking for. If price changes its behavior to shun the trend channel and leaves it for good to the upside, I'll of course have to change in that case what I'll be looking for.
Close to 87 is the apex of the hinge. This area by its very nature is where a large number of transactions between buyers and sellers take place. As a result, trading around this area is fraught with peril. Only the most daring can handle the gyrations around the apex.
Gringo
after I get SCR... 
NQ hourly has breached the DL but not convincingly. Just because a line is broken doesn't mean it's because of weakness. This appears to be broken in time, while the price was moving sideways. So far, the buyers are willing to bid prices up and are holding 1610. I am keeping an eye on this level and if it breaks then will start looking for opportunities for a short.
I am not looking for a long simply because price has moved quite a bit from it's turning point that was around 3511. It doesn't mean there is no upside left, but it does mean the price risk is greater around here.
In the bigger scheme of things we can keep in mind that the price is still hovering a bit above the supply line of the downward sloping trend channel. So a weakness here for me is going to carry some conviction, or an anticipation that price might try to go down to the bottom of the trend channel. Whether that comes to transpire is another matter.
Gringo
I am not looking for a long simply because price has moved quite a bit from it's turning point that was around 3511. It doesn't mean there is no upside left, but it does mean the price risk is greater around here.
In the bigger scheme of things we can keep in mind that the price is still hovering a bit above the supply line of the downward sloping trend channel. So a weakness here for me is going to carry some conviction, or an anticipation that price might try to go down to the bottom of the trend channel. Whether that comes to transpire is another matter.
Gringo
When looking at price from the beginning of this bull market i.e., from Mar 2009, we can see that price has been on an upward trajectory. The red trend channel represents this longer term bull trend. Currently price has broken the DL of the more aggressive upward sloping trend channel. We are experiencing a retracement back up towards the 90 or beyond.
From an AMT perspective if price starts dropping soon it would be around the overbought area of the longer term red trend channel. Using SLA around here we have this DL break and a retracement in place. Continuation down would bring both these approaches into play and we would be looking downwards.
A weakness here could also spell a start of a bear market, which at the time we have no clue about. It could also mean that price might only attempt to go half way to the mid of the trend channel to the grey line, or to the bottom, which is around 75. All we can do is anticipate this scenario and attempt any shorts using the SLA when and if the retracement ends and a drop ensues.
Now, looking at the monthly we can see that we haven't experienced even the first major break yet. If we observe the two previous bear markets, we can see that they are preceded by a major break that sets the tone for the second break. That first break gives us the retracement that is the harbinger of potential danger.
This in the overall picture could imply, assuming previous behaviour plays out somewhat similarly, that if the daily or weekly give a sell signal which turns out to be valid, it could potentially be the first break we have talked about earlier. The likelihood of it leading to a major bear drop right from here, keeping in the mind the overall past behaviour is lower than would appear on first glance. Again, there is no rule stating it can't be the case this time around. But the generally speaking though, a full fledged bear market has given ample time to get out of it's path before the floodgates are opened.
Although, the weekly and monthly charts show some semblance of order, the daily is quite chaotic. There are a lot of possibilities and that's why when it gets too confusing I either stand aside or stick to SLA. It takes away from the twisting and turning in bed all night. I am including the daily here just to show what I am talking about. There's this downward sloping trend channel and also the possibility of a new upward sloping trend channel. Of course, there's also this hinge in the middle of it all. For daily, or hourly, we can pay attention to it for now, but this post is mainly for the larger trend. I am including this daily chart for completion, so that later we can all come back with a cup of warm milk in our hands, and reminiscence about this great juncture, and what we were thinking about the markets at that time.
Gringo
From an AMT perspective if price starts dropping soon it would be around the overbought area of the longer term red trend channel. Using SLA around here we have this DL break and a retracement in place. Continuation down would bring both these approaches into play and we would be looking downwards.
A weakness here could also spell a start of a bear market, which at the time we have no clue about. It could also mean that price might only attempt to go half way to the mid of the trend channel to the grey line, or to the bottom, which is around 75. All we can do is anticipate this scenario and attempt any shorts using the SLA when and if the retracement ends and a drop ensues.
Now, looking at the monthly we can see that we haven't experienced even the first major break yet. If we observe the two previous bear markets, we can see that they are preceded by a major break that sets the tone for the second break. That first break gives us the retracement that is the harbinger of potential danger.
This in the overall picture could imply, assuming previous behaviour plays out somewhat similarly, that if the daily or weekly give a sell signal which turns out to be valid, it could potentially be the first break we have talked about earlier. The likelihood of it leading to a major bear drop right from here, keeping in the mind the overall past behaviour is lower than would appear on first glance. Again, there is no rule stating it can't be the case this time around. But the generally speaking though, a full fledged bear market has given ample time to get out of it's path before the floodgates are opened.
Although, the weekly and monthly charts show some semblance of order, the daily is quite chaotic. There are a lot of possibilities and that's why when it gets too confusing I either stand aside or stick to SLA. It takes away from the twisting and turning in bed all night. I am including the daily here just to show what I am talking about. There's this downward sloping trend channel and also the possibility of a new upward sloping trend channel. Of course, there's also this hinge in the middle of it all. For daily, or hourly, we can pay attention to it for now, but this post is mainly for the larger trend. I am including this daily chart for completion, so that later we can all come back with a cup of warm milk in our hands, and reminiscence about this great juncture, and what we were thinking about the markets at that time.
Gringo
I exited as price is stuck in a range and I don't want to sit here to find out which side wins the battle. My anticipation was to the downside which didn't pan out, even though price isn't going up much either. In the absence of price not doing what I had expected it to do I am going to observe from outside until I can get a sense of whether the buyers or sellers are stronger.
Gringo
Gringo
You're trading on the daily chart with the stop size of a scalper. What's your win rate 10%?