Hourly:
Q's jumped up in the morning and appeared to be gaining steam. I gave price some space to see whether it was a one last push up or a sustained increase in demand. As it turned out price dropped within an hour or so and was heading lower.
Later price bounced up from the lows. A small bounce is understandable, however, there was a serious strength behind price as it would rest without much drop, and then resume upwards without letting those who might have shorted lower any respite to get out. My entry had been higher so there wasn't panic but the quick rebound was a red flag.
I had identified a smaller trend channel that's downward sloping. The supply line is intact so far, but I am not sure I'll be giving price too much more room if it continues to go up from here.
Daily:
Looking at the daily one can can also see a supply line within the large trend channel being broken and price retracing. The end of the day has brought a substantial rise in price. If we have another up day this could signal a long entry on the daily using only SLA. I am showing the possible move of price in the direction of the green arrow. The price after moving up and down ends up close to the mid of the day, mainly in the upper half. This would also mean the price made a higher low after the bottoming at 83.
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly, one can see that the major trend is still up. Although this is the case, there is this DL break and a retracement. Price this week actually started dropping, which incidently looks like a sell signal on the weekly. I don't know if this is going to pan out but the potential to get to the other end, which is, all the way down to around 75 is present. A failure here would highlight the weakness in demand that wasn't able to chase price all the way up, above the previous high of over 90.
Conclusion:
The hourly and the daily point to the same thing: a situation calling for caution and protection of the short in case demand persists in overpowering supply. I am finding reasons to stay in but won't sit and let all profits evaporate. If I must, a re-entry can also be made in case demand falters after my exit. If price follows the path of the pink arrow I stay in; and if it follows the path of the green arrow I exit. The weekly bar interval shows that if one can manage to stay in, and the price does begin to falter, the potential for a large move is ever present.
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