Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

Gold is at the top of the hourly TC. This channel is also visible in the charges in the previous post. There has been a DL break in the hourly and if there a retracement and then a drop a short could be taken. Price is going through the retracement currently and we'll have to wait and see whether an entry signal shows up. This of course is for the hourly bar interval traders. We can see the median (dotted line)and in case a short comes about will have to stay alert around it as well.

Gringo
 
The price of gold has been steadily rising. I have been eyeing it for some time now to break the demand line and give me a retracement and drop for a short entry. It hasn't happened yet. There is a little bit of bias in my mind towards the weakening of the price. The strong drop that the demand wasn't able to arrest with much significance until price reached 1280 gave an indication that demand wasn't ready to stand and fight.

Now the demand is winning this tug of war and the wave is taking the price up. So how do we know which side is going to be a dominant in the near future? In reality we don't really know, or at least I don't know, and all I can do is wait for my entry signal and take the position. Now there are cases when price is around a potential resistance where I may take a position when the price starts stalling while it is withing the confines of the demand line and hasn't broken it yet. Generally speaking though those cases are not as prevalent and happen at the failure of price to do something that it was expected to do, like making a new high etc.

We are approaching the 50% mark of the large drop price had and close at hand is also the apex of the red hinge. The precise point or level is not as important as the vicinity of price to these levels. The idea is to start paying attention the SLA method now that price is getting close to a level where it potentially might reverse. The only concern, to keep my sanity, is to focus on the latest demand line and wait for it's breach and the same old retracement and continuation or a lack of continuation to the downside.

I have had a few scratches in a row, that have caused me a bit of consternation. At times I did feel a bit of anguish at not being able to catch the move in real time. When the moment of truth arrived there was a hesitation which caused the price to leave me behind while it continued it's merry way. Nonetheless, despite this inconvenience I am back on the horse and ready to jump in again. The plan and the conditions for entry are already revealed instead of showing up after the fact to claim my greatness. There isn't any hidden technique or method being used here.

Lets hope the probabilities catch up and the edge carries me forth into the blissful bosom of the wealth fairy.

Gringo
 
Gold price has breached the DL quite significantly. From here I am waiting for a retracement and then drop. The distance covered by price during the drop has taken price quite a bit away from the 1331 swing top. The price risk has increased, but at the same time price is dropping hints that the demand doesn't have enough juice in it. These strong down moves coming after the main drop from 1393 is a show of the continuation of that weakness. We must not forget that price has been unable to get to the 50% mark which also shows supply having the upper hand.

Positives for a short:
1) Strong drop breaching DL - a sign of weakness
2) Inability to get to 50% - another sign of weakness
3) earlier straight drop without much stoppage from 1393 to 1280 - a sign of weakness
4) RET is taking place within the daily bar :eek:

Negatives for a short:
1) Price risk is greater.
2) The RET may not be able to push price too much closer to swing high.
3) Price can do anything, even start moving upwards

My dislike for the gaps in GLD/GDX is growing. The behaviour wasn't this pop prone a year ago but is turning into a bag of pop corns. The futures and their flow is getting more and more appealing to me. The movement is the same but the reduction in risk by having greater control over the exits is something I am beginning to appreciate. The coming year might make me dip my toes into the world of futures for good. So far I have avoided it.

Gringo
 
QQQ is around the upper TC. The hourly broke DL, had a RET, and now is falling. This constitutes a short for me. Above the TC I won't stay short.

Gringo
 
Nothing much to do, other than wait and let it play out. Price is moving down one step at a time. It is finding some demand from buyers around the median of the trend channel.

Gringo
 
As noted above, the price is gold is bouncing at the mid of the 1200 to 1400 range. Whether the price decides to go up or down from here is something I am not privy to, but a rise here would warrant a trader to look upwards. Well, in a way the lack of down move the second time halting around 1300 is already a heads up.

Gringo
 
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