Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

Avoid unnecessary worldviews
To prevent any perception skews

Weakness isn't in one's purviews
It's in responsibility, when one eschews

Behind every news what really brews?
Focus on price itself and not on other reviews

And fear not the deviant views
From the bearer of bad news

Gringo

p.s. All in good humour

 

[Gringo]

Lets see where price is compared to the previous two bursts. We are rising but there doesn't appear to be a sign of a major change in trend. The smart money (that would be me!) is on the long side. Now this doesn't mean we are not going to have normal corrections along the way. What it means is that we need to see more weakness before we can call it the end of the bull market from 2009.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Avoid unnecessary worldviews
To prevent any perception skews

Weakness isn't in one's purviews
It's in responsibility, when one eschews

Behind every news what really brews?
Focus on price itself and not on other reviews

And fear not the deviant views
From the bearer of bad news

Gringo

p.s. All in good humour

Its always great to see the poet back

 

[niko]

GLD weekly shows a potential resistance around 130. GLD daily is flirting with overbought supply line. GLD hourly shows a demand line break and then a retracement taking place. A weakness here if it develops could be used for a possible short.

The argument against the short is that the trend is strongly up. It would be prudent to let price show more weakness before jumping the gun.

Gringo

Did you take the short in Gold?

 

[Gringo]

GLD hourly has showng a bit of spring around the potential support. No shorts. Stay alert to longs here for hourly guys. Price like love is fickle.

Gringo

No shorts. I took the chance to go long when price bounced. The short I had initiated earlier but covered when price wouldn't drop. Db in chat had raised a point that perhaps my emotions are getting the best of me, and missing out on the long earlier in the year is causing me to short in an uptrend. I have a queasy feeling that he may be right. The good thing is that I didn't have much trouble switching my position when price behaved differently. To me this means there are probably some issues but not a complete structural breakdown. Perhaps some fine tuning is needed. I don't know whether taking a break from posting might do the trick. There is some extra pressure when one is reading and coming across all kinds of information.

I had thought to be beyond these emotional upheavals by now, and yet again, it's not completely the case. I'll sort things out soon enough to see what is appropriate. I am sticking with the hourly until price in EOD gives some kind of proper long or short signal.

Gringo

 

[Redneck]

Db in chat had raised a point that perhaps my emotions are getting the best of me, and missing out on the long earlier in the year is causing me to short in an uptrend.

I have a queasy feeling that he may be right.

o me this means there are probably some issues but not a complete structural breakdown.

Perhaps some fine tuning is needed.

I don't know whether taking a break from posting might do the trick.

I had thought to be beyond these emotional upheavals by now, and yet again, it's not completely the case.

I'll sort things out soon enough to see what is appropriate. I am sticking with the hourly until price in EOD gives some kind of proper long or short signal.

Gringo

Person puts in many long.., concerted… at times frustrating..., even tedious - hours to "get" this trading thing

Only then.., to be forced into completely divorcing oneself from it – so as to be able to effectively…, successfully.., and repeatedly implement it

Epitome of irony – that is

================

And it is necessary - else more exceedingly frustrating and unsuccessful hours await

C'est la vie

================

Success Sir

RN

 

[Gringo]

Gold hourly is currently in a no man's land. There is this channel that gives some perspective.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

GDX (gold miners) daily is also consolidating. There is enough room for the hourly to wait for extremes and hop on, however price is dead in the center where the wise don't bite. Since I am one of the wisest alive, I'll behave like the wise ones and not mess with this for now.

Since the trend is also up, it would be prudent to wait for a drop for a higher probability long entry. I bet no one here suspected to be given such professional advise but some times I am just feeling generous.

Gringo

 

[badnewsbear]

I'm not trading this. I have a long term investment against GDX, so price action means very little to me. This little gold rally can gain steam if spring economic data comes in weak, and the trend can just as well reverse with stronger economic data.

I'm betting on the economy to grow and on the 10 year yield to rise, which will destroy gold's uptrend. The last gold bear market lasted 30 years. Sure it had rallies. I'll keep selling into them until the economy shows signs of a real contraction.

 

[Gringo]

Someone in the Ghost thread was mentioning the mechanical short in ES. I wanted to highlight the QQQ and the weakness that it's exhibiting. There's this demand line break and also the retracement and today's drop. For me the weakness is becoming clearer however I would want to see price break 89 strongly and then come back up for a larger retracement. Without the ability to even break the last swing low I wouldn't mess with the short side.

On this chart at least the potential support and swing low around 89 coincide with the median of the uptrend channel as shown in grey. Whether this turns back up with a force is yet to be seen, however, we cannot deny that it would be prudent to stay alert to any further developments. The full fledged bear market signal this is not. Usually bear markets take a few months of sideways moves that get progressively weaker. It could be the beginning of it but most likely not the right edge before major collapse begins. Now this is all historical information and price can do anything it wants. Still, we keep in mind the normal and usual behavior to guide us through the turbulence.

I say a bounce here and then if weakness persists, to join the dark side and go against the crowd that is bullish. So far I sit and wait and enjoy my meals.

Gringo