Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

GDX hourly is giving a sell signal after the ret. Price just got rejected around the 26.66 resistance level from Oct. For EOD players this is a bit early as on the dailies the DL is intact. For those seeking faster and hourly entries this was an entry.

It is riskier in the sense that the greater push is upwards and we haven't given price much change to drop before this. Then again we are aware of the danger point being close at hand hence the risk can be managed.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

GDX short wasn't behaving as I had expected. Price two times refused to go down as demand showed up to prevent it from getting to 26. I don't like to be in a short when demand is so persistent, even though it's not strong enough so far.

So the fact that price couldn't continue in the intended direction after two tries, I am scratching this trade. I know so many of my fans were rooting for this position, but the nature of the business demanded that I be ruthless . I have had a few folds in a row now. Do I deserve better from the trading gods? Or is it the test of the true character of a trader to be persistence and patience. Continuing to fold is the mantra. At least there hasn't been any major loss.

Does anyone else see a budding hinge?

Gringo

 

[bmwhendrix]

You are preserving capital. Rule 1

 

[tupapa]

With all due respect Gringo, it seems to me like you are looking for a "revenge short" against the major trend, out of frustration after getting in at the bottom and exiting prematurely.

Then again you are on of the few people posting entries, management and exits in real time, which is commendable.

Sometimes its best to accept you made a mistake and step back, maybe look for opportunities elsewhere. It works for me when I fell the heat...

 

[Gringo]

With all due respect Gringo, it seems to me like you are looking for a "revenge short" against the major trend, out of frustration after getting in at the bottom and exiting prematurely.

Then again you are on of the few people posting entries, management and exits in real time, which is commendable.

Sometimes its best to accept you made a mistake and step back, maybe look for opportunities elsewhere. It works for me when I fell the heat...

Hi Tupapa,

It could be, but strangely I don't feel any remourse. I take is as a fact and actually learned from it. When I took the long it was based on EOD trading, while this short was based on the hourly. So the hourly as I showed gave the signal based on how do things. The EOD you are right hasn't given a short yet.

I would have looked at tweaking the system and myself a bit, but Douglas had warned about this tendency after a string of losses. It's a probabilities game and the fact that I got a few bad in a row doesn't negate the edge. I am not even losing much to be realistic so the fear level is quite contained so far. I am enjoying my trading, even though I haven't gotten a home run yet.

Gringo

 

[niko]

.

Does anyone else see a budding hinge?

Gringo

Hingy, hingy. I guess you have scratched by now.

So given what has happened so far, is the LOLR still up, or does this hinge means neutrality until broken out?

 

[Gringo]

Niko,

I was looking at gold futures (ETF: GLD) when I detected the hinge. I was looking at GDX. Here's the hinge using the hourly. Dailies haven't shown much hinge character so far. It's hard to tell with hinge which way the price might turn. We are close to potential resistance on the dailies for GDX and also could have more juice to the upside. We'll have to detect the weakness or strength as it develops. There is no point in guessing right now.

And yes, based on this yesterday I had scratched the position when price refused to go down at two occasions.

Gringo

 

[Roffe]

Gringo, seeing as you're also mainly focusing on slower charts, what's your take on pyramiding? Do you feel it is something you can add in later, when you trust your interpretation skills more? Or do you prefer to scale out even though not on quicker charts?

I think scaling out is great for making one relax and not worrying as much, but it's a shame to let the power moves go to waste by perhaps sitting on them with less size, and at the same time having larger size when you're mostly wrong, and the moves are small.

Or would you consider a combination? Say that you're beginning with being long 5 contracts. Then selling 2 due to e.g. some demand lines being broken. You're waiting for the retrace, but you never get your sell signal. Instead you get a new buy signal after the smaller supply line gets broken + retrace. Now you go long 5 contracts again, for a total of 8 contracts. You'll have worse entry price than if you'd stayed in with the original 5 all the time, but perhaps it is worth it due to the psychological reasons.

Of course, this all have to be tested, and adjusted to ones personal needs and circumstances, but I'm just curious how your thinking goes. Or perhaps you've mentioned this elsewhere and I've just missed it.

 

[Gringo]

Gringo, seeing as you're also mainly focusing on slower charts, what's your take on pyramiding? Do you feel it is something you can add in later, when you trust your interpretation skills more? Or do you prefer to scale out even though not on quicker charts?

I think scaling out is great for making one relax and not worrying as much, but it's a shame to let the power moves go to waste by perhaps sitting on them with less size, and at the same time having larger size when you're mostly wrong, and the moves are small.

Or would you consider a combination? Say that you're beginning with being long 5 contracts. Then selling 2 due to e.g. some demand lines being broken. You're waiting for the retrace, but you never get your sell signal. Instead you get a new buy signal after the smaller supply line gets broken + retrace. Now you go long 5 contracts again, for a total of 8 contracts. You'll have worse entry price than if you'd stayed in with the original 5 all the time, but perhaps it is worth it due to the psychological reasons.

Of course, this all have to be tested, and adjusted to ones personal needs and circumstances, but I'm just curious how your thinking goes. Or perhaps you've mentioned this elsewhere and I've just missed it.

Buying I do in two or three chunks but at times go all in if the risk is easy to identify. Exiting, is a bit tricky and after a strong run up I would exit half and play with the other. Keep in mind I also have to deal with personal demons so if I feel scared I just exit regardless of what the market is doing. I don't want to get into the hope game.

Gringo

 

[bmwhendrix]

G. Trying to post a chart. Daily 30 year bond hinge.