Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[niko]

If one wants to incorporate trends and trend channels into his trading decisions, he has to begin at the beginning, in this case the end of August. One can draw the line and the channel wherever he likes, but if he doesn't do it properly, he is likely to be looking at/for the wrong thing at the wrong time.

In G's chart above, the more profitable strategy is to take the reversals at the extremes, most profitably the shorts in a downtrending channel. Yes the long reversals can be taken off the bottom of the channel, but they aren't as profitable because the channel slopes downward.

One can, of course, wait for price to exit the channel entirely, but this is a far more traumatic event, like having your bus route changed without warning. There will thus be a lot more back-and-fill and wandering around in the dark with a penlite trying to discern direction. This requires extra patience unless there is clear and undeniable evidence of reversion. Note in G's chart that price has not exited the channel but rather appears to be reversing at its upper extreme.

Ok, thanks. I understand that the drill here is to sell the top, but somehow my data showed me that the SL from aug is broken (not shown above, shown below) and therefore my reading was that buyers were struggling for control. They don't have it yet or else the RETs wouldn't be so deep, and they have not even been able to get to 50% of the downswing from October. For all I know, they can even fail to make a HH and price could just plunge back in the TC from aug.

But at the immediate moment I saw buyers trying, the fact that they are trying at the top of a longer TC adds context, thanks.

Now, I am currently only watching what happens around this TCs and therefore I am seeing them everywhere .

 

[dbphoenix]

Ok, thanks. I understand that the drill here is to sell the top, but somehow my data showed me that the SL from aug is broken (not shown above, shown below) and therefore my reading was that buyers were struggling for control. They don't have it yet or else the RETs wouldn't be so deep, and they have not even been able to get to 50% of the downswing from October. For all I know, they can even fail to make a HH and price could just plunge back in the TC from aug.

But at the immediate moment I saw buyers trying, the fact that they are trying at the top of a longer TC adds context, thanks.

Now, I am currently only watching what happens around this TCs and therefore I am seeing them everywhere .

At the risk of hijacking G's thread, buyers have been struggling for control since the end of August. That's why price has been trending down. Now they've managed to escape this channel. Now they have to put a higher low and a higher high in place. Then they'll be in business. If one wants to anticipate a higher high, he can place a buystop above Wednesday's bar.

Edit: Sorry, Thursday. Or Friday. You guys are using multiple charts, each of which shows something different.

 

[niko]

At the risk of hijacking G's thread, buyers have been struggling for control since the end of August. That's why price has been trending down. Now they've managed to escape this channel. Now they have to put a higher low and a higher high in place. Then they'll be in business. If one wants to anticipate a higher high, he can place a buystop above Wednesday's bar.

Edit: Sorry, Thursday. Or Friday. You guys are using multiple charts, each of which shows something different.

Thanks, G is using the ETF and I am using the underlying. I guess we have to agree on what to use. I just dont have a good datafeed for stocks at my disposal.

 

[dbphoenix]

Thanks, G is using the ETF and I am using the underlying. I guess we have to agree on what to use. I just dont have a good datafeed for stocks at my disposal.

In that case, price hasn't even broken out of the spot channel, after one attempt. That may be why the other instruments that are being used are so sluggish.

 

[Gringo]

Note in G's chart that price has not exited the channel but rather appears to be reversing at its upper extreme.

I would add that price in case of GLD is having a retracement now that's very close to the top of the downward sloping trend channel. If a weakness develops here it might be a pretty reasonable short. However, I was playing with GDX that's behaving more strongly than GLD, but whichever of them gives a signal I might take it. GLD is showing more weakness than GDX at this time.

As Db, mentioned in case of GLD the trend channel is intact and now we have a DL breach and a Ret at the top of the channel. I don't know what else a person needs to really initiate a short. The missing part is the onset of weakness that might just show up in a day.

Db, you can always hijack the thread, and I can always reclaim it back with my poetry. What's more important is that your perspective is needed and welcome here to iron out the kinks. At times the issues are larger than being small kinks and a captain is needed to sail through the storms. It's getting stormy out there.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

I would add that price in case of GLD is having a retracement now that's very close to the top of the downward sloping trend channel. If a weakness develops here it might be a pretty reasonable short. However, I was playing with GDX that's behaving more strongly than GLD, but whichever of them gives a signal I might take it. GLD is showing more weakness than GDX at this time.

As Db, mentioned the trend channel is intact and now we have a DL breach and a Ret at the top of the channel. I don't know what else a person needs to really initiate a short. The missing part is the onset of weakness that might just show up in a day.

Gringo

As I said above, price has already rejected the upper limit of the spot trend channel, so that's that. I haven't backtested any of this in the context of AMT, but, just looking at it, AMT appears to be applicable. And a short is particularly attractive given that the slope of the channel is down.

 

[Gringo]

GDX seems to not be picking a direction. It`s like price is in a trading range, and more specifically in a possible hinge. I`ll show the daily and the hourly charts below. The hinge and the indecision are visible. Perhaps a resolution of the hinge might shed some light as to the potential direction.

In case of GLD price is also doing a bit of consolidation close to the downward sloping channel top. There appears to be a weakness in price, but supply has not been able to overwhelm demand yet. Now using AMT the rejection around 122 is visible, but again price refused to continue down. This lack of continuation is indicating a state of indecision, or perhaps demand not ready yet to give up. Other than that I`ll need some more evidence before taking a side.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Q`s are in a down trend. If one was not aware of this fact up until now, one needs to pick another pastime. The supply line is intact, which is and indication that for the end of day trader there are no longs as of now. To be more precise there are no longs for the kind of set ups I wait for. The longer term trend line is intact which means for some there is nothing to worry about.

The demand line was breached and then price has been making lower highs and lower lows. The supply line simply highlights this behaviour in a visually friendly manner. Downward sloping supply line shows the price is moving downward more often than it`s moving upward.

On a side note, notice the increase in volume this time around during the down move. The longer term up trend line is just below the price. There is also this potential support around the 84-85 region. Lets see if demand shows up around here or it's going to wait till price goes lower. Five years for a bull market is a pretty long time, however, a lot of times during the past half decade price just blasted upward and resumed its course after some rest. Is it going to be the same this time around, or are we getting closer to the end game? As Db was mentioning in chat usually the tops take a bit of time and price might go back up to test the highs again. We keep an eye on price and relax until something substantial shows up.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

In case of GLD price is also doing a bit of consolidation close to the downward sloping channel top. There appears to be a weakness in price, but supply has not been able to overwhelm demand yet. Now using AMT the rejection around 122 is visible, but again price refused to continue down. This lack of continuation is indicating a state of indecision, or perhaps demand not ready yet to give up. Other than that I`ll need some more evidence before taking a side.

Gringo

Pace aside, consider extent and duration, i.e., the number of weeks it takes to get from the upper limit to the lower and back again along with the number of points in each wave, upper to lower and back again.

 

[cmb]

I know you are mostly about Gold here, but I saw this on the 60m.., perhaps its worth a look.

CL has broken out of the Up channel and made a lower high.