Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

Price wasn't able to continue up after the break of the demand line. There was an attempt by demand but the supply overwhelmed this demand and slammed it back. The sideways drifting of the price was our first signal and now this high volume failure. Price failed to go above the previous swing high and actually turned downwards quite dramatically. I would consider the long side of gold to be less probable at this time. Those who went long based on the recommendation or nudging a week or so ago are not in any major loss. This hasn't panned out as expected but the risk considering the exit is a wonderful reminder of how following price one generally can bail on a weakness before shit hits the fan.

Today could also be considered a signal to go short here for those who are so inclined. If price doesn't follow downward then it would be wise in that case to simply exit with a small gain or a small loss 'before' a strong uptrend shows up. So what's the case against a short? The price didn't stay down and pulled back up. This could be a precursor to a new trading range. We don't know what price is going to do though. All we are doing is simply following it in hopes of catching a larger trend while keeping our losses small. There hasn't been any use of indicators and some might be finding it strange to feel so baggage free.

Price, volume, support/resistance, demand/supply lines, and trend. These are the only criteria used in making a decision. The price was having difficulty rising above the resistance area. The volume showed higher intensity. The demand line break showed a change in stride for price. The trend in the past few weeks has been up but is under pressure. The Law of Demand and Supply holds sway in all matters of trading and speculating.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Gringo:

Price, volume, support/resistance, demand/supply lines, and trend. These are the only criteria used in making a decision. The price was having difficulty rising above the resistance area. The volume showed higher intensity. The demand line break showed a change in stride for price. The trend in the past few weeks has been up but is under pressure. The Law of Demand and Supply holds sway in all matters of trading and speculating.

So what happened to the Gringo of five years ago?

 

[tupapa]

There seems to be a focus throughout the trading community on the S&P and the Nasdaq, TO be honest, neither of these indexes are anywhere close to a position where I would feel comfortable putting a trade on.

Which is why I´ve looked elsewhere and found some interesting behavior. The Dow is at the top of its trading range, so one should get ready for a reversal.

So far we have a rejection (First red line that breaks the DL), now buyers are trying (second green line), if they fail to make a new high, it should be fairly easy to enter on the last red line.

 

[tupapa]

I am keeping an eye on the Ftse; it is testing the top of the monthly Trading Range, and on the daily, I notice 4 signs of weakness

More than enough to start looking for an entry on the shorter interval.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from dbphoenix:

So what happened to the Gringo of five years ago?

Oh Db. Why put salt on old wounds. Those days of my knowing all the shapes price could take, but not knowing the behaviour of price itself. Those days when buying at the support provided by the moving average was considered wise. Those days when shorting a double top in an up trending market was considered the prudent option. Those days of averaging down despite knowing better. Those days of hopelessly pulling hair out while the price kept going in the opposite direction. Those days of having massive gains, and then giving them all back, not knowing the trend was over. Those days of following gurus and and their calls and still losing money.

Hopefully that Gringo and those days are no more. Now it's a new Gringo. The price action Gringo. The Gringo who believes in a better future. The Gringo who has kept his gambler's mentality in check. The Gringo who knows a better future is at hand. The Gringo who is putting the final touches to his master plan. The Gringo who is ready to soar again. The Gringo who is eagerly awaiting the coming year. The Gringo who is forever indebted to his friend.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

Sounds like the last scene in Key Largo

 

[Gringo]

Q's broke the DL and price was unable to make new high. In fact price turned south from there. I would consider this a sign of weakness. The hourly gave the short signal a few hours ago, and the daily might just catch up.

The main thing is that price hasn't been able to make upward progress, and in the absence of that upward progress, down or sideways is the higher probability option. To cash in, in case the drop does come, one needs to be short.

There is a potential of some support around 82.5 but we'll know if price halts its downward move there and deal with it then. If by the end of the day price closes below 82.5 it would be a sign of weakness. If price starts rising, especially above the swing high then of course we wouldn't stay short. To make some dough, one needs to be in the market when the large move comes.

This is still the early stage of market's possible turn. There will most likely be other opportunities to enter if the direction turns to the down side. So there is no urgency but then again there is opportunity. A need to stay alert is now. There is always this chance of getting a false alarm. Then again, how many out there are telling you live for free when to buy and when to sell?

The interplay of supply and demand is creating a mesmerizing dance and it's the interpretation of this dance that will yield some winners and some losers. Our idea is to keep our losses small and profits large.

Those who don't prefer the short side may choose to stay out in hopes of hanging on to their pants in case the storm does arrive.

QQQ hourly:

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Q's couldn't crack 82.5 so it wouldn't be too unwise to ease up on those shorts before the end of the day.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Gringo:

Q's couldn't crack 82.5 so it wouldn't be too unwise to ease up on those shorts before the end of the day.

Gringo

Pandering to those daytraders, are we?

 

[Gringo]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Pandering to those daytraders, are we?

Maybe too much a trader's mentality took over. The moment support held the reason to stay short became less convincing. Price is moving sideways now and it might turn into a TR. This lack of clarity is reason enough to just sit out. I can imagine others who also are betting on either long or short must be feeling some kind of anxiousness as sooner or later price is going to head one way or the other.

I am also worried about those who just have no clue and jump in when I write something. I might be exaggerating the extent of my following here as there are hardly more than ten views after I post . Despite that I don't want them to be left hanging. Maybe I am too much worried about others . I'll think it over, over the weekend.

Gringo