Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action
- Thread starter Gringo
- Start date
Are you trading intra-day? The spike was mainly on GLD and not much on GDX or NUGT. For GDX or NUGT the daily move appears to be less than the average trading range. For NUGT the average range for the past four days has been a minimum of 2 points. Today it hasn't even reached 2 points. So the gyrations are less than what would be considered extreme. Unless of course I am misinterpreting.
For those trading intra-day GLD or gold futures, the spike might have caused some panic. It might even have triggered stops of the weak holders across multiple bar intervals. Lets see if this was a shake out and whether price is going to start moving up from here. So far futures and GLD, GLD, NUGT are all stabilizing.
The fact that price hasn't continued down and has maintained it's composure might show underlying strength. Lets see what price decides to do. Price after all is the best arbiter of opinion.
Gringo
p.s. On second thought, that gold spike was nasty, especially for those holding the futures.
For those trading intra-day GLD or gold futures, the spike might have caused some panic. It might even have triggered stops of the weak holders across multiple bar intervals. Lets see if this was a shake out and whether price is going to start moving up from here. So far futures and GLD, GLD, NUGT are all stabilizing.
The fact that price hasn't continued down and has maintained it's composure might show underlying strength. Lets see what price decides to do. Price after all is the best arbiter of opinion.
Gringo
p.s. On second thought, that gold spike was nasty, especially for those holding the futures.
Price hasn't pushed up higher. At the moment, or I guess at all moments, it's not certain which direction the price might pick. There is a possibility of a breather and price could go down to 28 area. There's also a chance that price might jump up and punish the shorts. I am just finding reasons to stay in. We'll see when and if things start to look dangerous.
Gringo
Gringo
Price dropped strongly for NUGT early in the morning, but by the end of the trading session it was back up and closed strong. We've have had four days in a row where the closes have been within a tight range. From this we can decipher one thing for now, and it is that price isn't dropping. Lets see how it all unfolds in the coming days. It's when price drops and finds it tough to go back up shall we get ready to bail, but until then we sit tight. So far, normal moves up and down, within a reasonable range, and with tight closes is the norm. Not a sign of weakness so I would say.
Gringo
Gringo
Quote from Gringo:
Price dropped strongly for NUGT early in the morning, but by the end of the trading session it was back up and closed strong. We've have had four days in a row where the closes have been within a tight range. From this we can decipher one thing for now, and it is that price isn't dropping. Lets see how it all unfolds in the coming days. It's when price drops and finds it tough to go back up shall we get ready to bail, but until then we sit tight. So far, normal moves up and down, within a reasonable range, and with tight closes is the norm. Not a sign of weakness so I would say.
Gringo
I hate when that happens, you get in and then buyers decide to give it some time
. From my perspective, so far, we are at the RET after the BO of the hinge you described or we are forming a wider TR (of the rectangular kind). No trend just yet 
BTW, happy new year!
This is pretty standard action for gold going into a NFP it almost always just finds a range and trades inside it for 3 to 4 days. Wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow is an inside day.
Price of NUGT again opened lower and today it couldn't muster the courage to recover the loss. This could be seen as a Retracement after after popping up above 28 area.
The situation is such that price is hanging in a balance. A day ago the action was constructive but now it has reached a tipping point. If demand isn't able to handle price around this level, with some leeway, we might have to consider thinking about demand being not ready for prime time. Whether it's a proper retracement and an up move is coming is going to be discovered in real time sooner or later. This is the fun part about trading. One can think all one wants but it's still a mystery as to what lies ahead.
Looking at the GDX, which incidentally seems to show trend lines in a different light, it is evident that a longer term trend line was breached. Price is resting a bit after this breach, but could return all the way back to the lows. This behaviour being a possibility calls for caution. If it does come to pass, would it be prudent to exit and then re-enter at a better opportunity, or hold in hopes that price will bounce again? There is no correct answer. Based on one's plan one trader could wait for the lows to be breached and another could exit and wait for the price to stabilize.
I'll post the chart of GDX to show what I am talking about.
Gringo
The situation is such that price is hanging in a balance. A day ago the action was constructive but now it has reached a tipping point. If demand isn't able to handle price around this level, with some leeway, we might have to consider thinking about demand being not ready for prime time. Whether it's a proper retracement and an up move is coming is going to be discovered in real time sooner or later. This is the fun part about trading. One can think all one wants but it's still a mystery as to what lies ahead.
Looking at the GDX, which incidentally seems to show trend lines in a different light, it is evident that a longer term trend line was breached. Price is resting a bit after this breach, but could return all the way back to the lows. This behaviour being a possibility calls for caution. If it does come to pass, would it be prudent to exit and then re-enter at a better opportunity, or hold in hopes that price will bounce again? There is no correct answer. Based on one's plan one trader could wait for the lows to be breached and another could exit and wait for the price to stabilize.
I'll post the chart of GDX to show what I am talking about.
Gringo
Niko had mentioned a hinge in a post above. Although it does seem like some kind of hinge action was in place, I wasn't actively looking or paying attention to it. I simply connected the demand and supply lines and they ended up looking as if there was a hinge.
Price behaviour can be looked at in many ways and at times the shape is in the eyes of the beholder. What's important is to keep our focus on the price itself. For now price is slowly moving downwards and if it's unable to gather some steam it would indicate weakness. For now we don't know what the case is or whether this is the slouching of the price before a big leap.
Here's the chart for NUGT:
Gringo
Price behaviour can be looked at in many ways and at times the shape is in the eyes of the beholder. What's important is to keep our focus on the price itself. For now price is slowly moving downwards and if it's unable to gather some steam it would indicate weakness. For now we don't know what the case is or whether this is the slouching of the price before a big leap.
Here's the chart for NUGT:
Gringo
The weakness seems to be increasing. Price isn't finding much traction here to the upside. The close was also weak today. I am going to start taking position off if this persists. Price behaviour although retracing isn't showing the kind of strength that would make this long a convincing one. I am beginning to sense some 'hope' creeping into my mind. This means somethings not right and I don't like sitting on a position feeling vulnerable. If things don't improve fast, I'll have to bail on this one.
Gringo
Gringo