You could be right again and I might be too conservative on my mid term outlook.The wild card here are the institutional and retail investors.Considering how they've pushed up the major index averages,the amount of liquidity flowing into the markets,a weakening dollar senario and the strengthening perception in gold as an asset class , and the actual overall, comparatively miniscule ,market cap for gold related investments,I may be grossly under estimating my mid term price outlook for gold.However since I've been on the winning and losing side of this sector over the past twenty years,if I'm in error ,I'd prefer to error on the cautious side.In all honesty I've never seen the fudamentals this strong either,and dont see any end in sight for this trend. The dollar down gold down post was that afore mentioned wildcard at work.Im 99.9% sure it was some profit taking in anticipation of stellar employment numbers which did'nt materialize.I was watching the currency markets when the numbers came out.Gold was down $2.50 and the dollar was breakeven for the morning.Instant turnaround for gold and the dollar started plunging immediately upon release of the employment numbers. As someone used to say around here, the trend is your friend.Goodluck.
Gold Ripe For Pullback?
- Thread starter rodden
- Start date
The Dollar down, Gold down was a fleeting moment; I didn't take it seriously at that point - just pointing out that any combo is possible.
Gold got hammered this morning on its first shot at @410.0; also noteworthy is the poor performance of Gold Majors this morning. Nonetheless, I'm impressed with the comeback to 408.0+ after the 404.0-ish low. I covered my PDG shorts for a small loss and am now net long Gold instruments.
I'm still concerned about the USD situation though. It's getting pummeled again this morning, but I still think the Dollar Index component currencies are all extended at these levels and we might see a USD reversal. Greenspan's between a rock and a hard place right now: if he raises rates to avoid a panic liquidation of foreign-held debt instruments he could burst the RE bubble and rattle the Equities Markets. He'll have to do some pretty slick talking tomorrow at the big Powwow to avoid upsetting anybody. I wouldn't be amazed to see at least a warning of reversal of Fed interest rates policy, given that other major currency countries are raising their rates.
It's anybody's guess. Don't laugh, but I think the safest thing right now is mini-cap gold exploration companies on the TSX & TSX Venture exchanges. Some of these things have pretty good fundamentals and pay off big when you pick them right.
Of course, Gold Futures are always exciting, but if you don't time them right..
There's something wrong with the Gold Majors; they're just not responding like they they used to to Bullion - maybe it's anticipation of competition from ETF's..maybe it's the big PE ratios.
We'll see.
Good luck.
Thanx, T-Guy.
Wish I could say I'm making a ton of money. Truth is, I'm OK at research and analysis and rotten at trading; I'm always aborting prematurely - too easily spooked by daily fluctuations. Know any good therapists for that sort of problem?
Three months ago I bailed on my Toronto pennies for a $14K profit; if I'd held on two more months I would have cleared $200K+. Research told me to sell because the companies were all bogus. Research told me to hold because the promoters all had track records and were all on the hook for millions of shares.
Looks like insider positions were the best indicator in this instance.
Went short PDG this A.M.; just covered. Maybe a mistake.
Euro brushed 123.0 this morning. That fulfills its immediate requirements and sets it up for a retreat to perhaps 118.0. Other USD currencies looking iffy at these levels.
I think Greenspan may say something that boosts the U.S. Dollar this afternoon - and that may set Gold back a bit. We need a shake-out here to set up a more secure advance.
We'll see.
Euro brushed 123.0 this morning. That fulfills its immediate requirements and sets it up for a retreat to perhaps 118.0. Other USD currencies looking iffy at these levels.
I think Greenspan may say something that boosts the U.S. Dollar this afternoon - and that may set Gold back a bit. We need a shake-out here to set up a more secure advance.
We'll see.
By the time a trade looks good, the market usually doesn't let people back in at a "safe" price. Most people calling for a pullback are those sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in -- dunno if the market will give them another shot to get long. Check out what platinum has done this year as an example of a strongly trending market.
a new stock called Gold Bullion Sec traded
I think US residents are not allowed to own it
but really am unsure about this
I find it funny that the US cannot commit to an ETF for gold
but the aussie and uk govt can
I do know that MER has something called gold trakkers
that just recently started trading .... but do not think this
is exchangable for bullion ....
I think US residents are not allowed to own it
but really am unsure about this
I find it funny that the US cannot commit to an ETF for gold
but the aussie and uk govt can
I do know that MER has something called gold trakkers
that just recently started trading .... but do not think this
is exchangable for bullion ....
