GOLD ready to Drop $100 - COT Reports

D

Digs

Large speculators have over $200k contracts for LONG.

Soon they must SELL for profit taking.

Why : either some funds must liquidate positions for redemptions or help cover margin calls from loosing stock positions.

But watch out btw gold at $900 to $100 for a major sell off.
 
look ... it could happen ... in the weeks to come
the longs to need to digest alot of things this week

a. rollover week in gold
b. fed meeting
c. nfp data
d. ET posts ( just kidding )

at the same time ... the market is a bit nervous about
the power blackouts in south africa

plus the other markets with high correlation
to gold ... what will they do this week
how will gold react to their movements

good luck to all and please try to manage your risk
properly
 
The COT reports show incredible danger for LONGS, soon the Large speculators must find BID to bank profits. Massive abnormal large speculator longs at the moment. The commercials ( ie the producers/miners) have not been in this last rally, so unless they become much serious about being long, then the rally is over. I bet the a waiting for sell off before they act.
 
Robbie380, can you expand on your comments here. I'm not claiming to be the most knowledgable regarding fundamentals, so perhapes you can enlighten me. I am very cautious of gold right now. The COT data absolutely shows extremes with the commercials heavily short and along with the cyclical February risk to the downside in gold prices, you could be forgiven playing it from the shortside. But, as I say, I'm extremely cautious right now because it also looks like a screaming buy on any pullbacks. Hence, flat right now, but always looking to take a trade. I will definately jump on the back if it starts to weaken, but pls explain you adamant view that gold is clearly not a sell??
 
Quote from Wood474:

Robbie380, can you expand on your comments here. I'm not claiming to be the most knowledgable regarding fundamentals, so perhapes you can enlighten me. I am very cautious of gold right now. The COT data absolutely shows extremes with the commercials heavily short and along with the cyclical February risk to the downside in gold prices, you could be forgiven playing it from the shortside. But, as I say, I'm extremely cautious right now because it also looks like a screaming buy on any pullbacks. Hence, flat right now, but always looking to take a trade. I will definately jump on the back if it starts to weaken, but pls explain you adamant view that gold is clearly not a sell??
More...

i'm not saying don't sell gold if you feel that is the right play. it's a pretty crowded play right now to be long gold. what i am saying is this guy is insane if he thinks gold is going to lose almost 90% of its value because some people are long and need to sell.

maybe i am the retard who can't read...i just re-reading his comments and maybe i am reading them wrong. when i saw the "But watch out btw gold at $900 to $100 for a major sell off." i just took that to imply gold was selling off $800. i guess that was a typo and he meant gold could sell off $100 from this $900 price level.

yeah i can't disagree that is a possibility but not because someone needs to take profit. if gold sells off it is because the data this week shows that things just aren't that bad and that a flight to buy gold just isn't necessary. and to the OP what do you mean by $200k contracts to sell. do you mean 200,000 contracts or do you mean a dollar value that you mistyped?

and also the margin calls would have already happened earlier in the month when we opened down 500. people have been liquidating on the way down so i don't think margin calls will be an issue especially since the market has deleveraged a lot since the subprime crisis started when it was totally over leveraged.

so if he meant gold could sell off $100 then i agree it's possible but i completely disagree with his reasoning on why it could sell.
 
Quote from Digs:

Large speculators have over $200k contracts for LONG.

Soon they must SELL for profit taking.

Why : either some funds must liquidate positions for redemptions or help cover margin calls from loosing stock positions.

But watch out btw gold at $900 to $100 for a major sell off.
More...

Yes it's expected, but it appears you're saying from $900.00 down to $100.00.
 
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