Gold - on cusp of massive bearmarket :)

[deadbroke]

While the HERD gets razzle dazzled, let's note the following

the recent wave from July 28 MUST correct. It has to. That's the way markets operate. Sure it can extend. But it will correct.

If you just jump from daily to 4H you will see that the wave consists of only dips - that in itself tells you that as soon as the first dip is taken out we will have a fullblown corrective wave IF NOT a reversal.

This means to 38.2 or 61.8% = 1274-1233

the leveraged latecomers will be slaughtered.

Your first job in this game is PRESERVATION. You are not preserving when you are running with the madmen blinded by greed.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from deadbroke:

August 19, 2010

...a massive bearmarket is coming or has already come since the June 2010 top, is quite evident to me.

Gold long-term bearmarket target = $250, possibly lower, the lower target will be provided if necessary, when we get there.

How about now?

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from Debaser82:

A large chunk of gold's recent strength is due to the weakness in the USD.

Should gold retreat accompanied by a strengthening USD gold's price in foreign currencies could very well hold their ground to a large extend and thus retain it's attractivity for buyers across the board.

Also, at some point in the bull market, gold should start rallying strongly in foreign currencies too. Once it decouples from the dollar, things will get really interesting.

Since the dollar is so oversold, I would say that being long gold partially against foreign currencies might be a better play than just long against the dollar. I think long gold short GBP looks good, for example. Or against EUR.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from deadbroke:

Reiterating, reversal imminent ... currently a closing break below $1310 on 4H will set it in motion.

some commonsense thoughts in next post

Reiterating, reversal imminent ... currently a closing break below $1310 on 4H will set it in motion.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

DBs' problem rests in his expectations of deflationary environment to set in around the globe. Perhaps he will be correct one day, after all austerity measures are likely to cap growth after all, but right now governments seem to be trying to inflate their way out of debt. And that's being reflected in equities & commodities. How long can that last intil deflation sets in is an unknown variable.

So nice of you to use fundamental analysis to TIME

So nice of you to state db's problem in fundamental terms.

>>>> How long can that last intil deflation sets in is an unknown variable. <<<<<

DEFLATION is already here - in early stages yes, but its here.

 

[deadbroke]

continued ...


focus is ONLY Gold's current rally upleg from the July 28, 2010 low.

All fundamental stuff, even the larger picture technical view is blocked out now as the focus is only timing the END OF THE CURRENT RALLY UPLEG.

Nothing else matters, not the woman, not the Land, not the experts - only when the turn wil come and for that I listen to nobody but PRICE.

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The larger real life perspective

My bet continues to strongly remain in favor of the MAN with no house, no money, no friends - but in just casually observing his luggage, his now worn-out clothes, its clear he still is a MAN of substance - and HISTORY has shown that when one forces such a MAN into a corner the repercussions on reconnecting with his POWER, can be and usually are drastically severe.

That MAN be the US Dollar. My bet remains on him with the hedge being the Yen.

 

[peilthetraveler]

Quote from deadbroke:

Nothing else matters, not the woman, not the Land, not the experts - only when the turn wil come and for that I listen to nobody but PRICE.

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Yeah, you know what...lets use that logic with another asset and see how it works. Lets use it against a car.

In 1965 you could buy a brand new Ford Mustang for $2,200 right off the lot. Today a brand new mustang is about $30,000+ minimum. (Hell, if you found a 1965 mustang in mint condition with only a few hundred miles on it, its worth $100k) Therefore Mustangs are clearly a bubble based on price and brand new mustangs must come down in price.

Hey...lets also look at candy bars. In 1980 a candy bar was 20 cents. Today its $1 for the exact same candy. In fact, the price of a candy bar has risen faster than the price of gold, so clearly candy bars are a bubble too.

Laundry detergent was $1.59 in 1980 too. Today its about $10 bucks for the same size. Clearly laundry detergent is a bubble also.

Gold only looks like a bubble because its playing catchup. Gold didnt go up in price for all those years that all the consumer products went up in price. Gold is still a little underpriced if you ask me.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from deadbroke:

Reiterating, reversal imminent ... currently a closing break below $1310 on 4H will set it in motion.

$1,325 is an aggressive, higher risk TLP/reverse to Short

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from deadbroke:

Reiterating, reversal imminent ... currently a closing break below $1310 on 4H will set it in motion.

Uh...how about now? LOL

 

[deadbroke]

I can smell the leper in our midst. His name is Lucrum Megasoreass. Due to an inflamed rectum he received yesterday in the Politics forum, he might be hard to spot, so these guidelines might help ....


These are his characteristics ....

pain is nature's way of reminding you who's in charge.

Never argue with Idiots. They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.