Gold - on cusp of massive bearmarket :)

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Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

If gold is going to $250 then shorting here is a terrible trade. At least wait for it to decisively break below the recent support around 1150ish, so you have some evidence of downward momentum, and a defined risk to the upside. Shorting here would be a bit of a crapshoot, how do you stay short it if breaks to 1275-1300+?

Besides, we have seen none of the usual signs of a classic long-term top.
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Yes, we do have a sign of a long-term classic top. But at ET such things are taboo. The HERD just simply does not like it. :) They prefer to just "react" as they've been doing for centuries. :) I once made the stupid mistake of pointing out a croc to a HERD member at the Mara river bank and he just laughed at me and said it was just a submerged boat.

The boat ate him an hour later, so we were unable to discuss any further. :)


At the risk of incurring their wrath :) I'll post the long-term topping pattern on WEEKLY - its called an ending diagonal triangle, but in this case its a fifth wave, i.e. a terminal wave. Remember that the upwave started in 1999 or thereabouts, so its a very long uptrend.




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Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

If gold is going to $250 then shorting here is a terrible trade. At least wait for it to decisively break below the recent support around 1150ish, so you have some evidence of downward momentum, and a defined risk to the upside. Shorting here would be a bit of a crapshoot, how do you stay short it if breaks to 1275-1300+?

Besides, we have seen none of the usual signs of a classic long-term top.
More...


I think it would not be too difficult to trade the short (if I'm right about the short in the first place) initially on 4H/1H and then once below $1160, switch to Daily and hold the short for months or 1-2 years.
 
Quote from gold5000:

Ha Ha Ha he he he I am laughing so hard I lost my breath. Gold at 250 dollars. Man are you on the wrong side of that one. With the amount of money this administration is pumping into the system 5000 an ounce will be the minimum.
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They say, "Laugher's the best medicine" .... :D :D


You're on. The bet is $1. You say $5k, I say $250. :)
 
DB, there is nothing wrong with patience. You consider reaction based decisions to be inferior compared to being first in line. This might come as a surprise to you, but we ain't discussing how to buy fresh water in Pakistan. Why the need to beat another guy or even majority by being one of the first to call a top? Sounds like an ego trip if you don't mind me saying so. Once a trend is broken it becomes a factual event where in a bear trend you need price to make lower lows and in bull vice versa. It is simples to understand. So why bash people that deal based on facts rather than fiction. Gold may be rallying for years & you will be calling tops for years, sometimes nailing intermediate ones, sometimes being squeezed until you puke as when there is no upper resistance who knows where a train might stop? In fact you said yourself in the past - a trend line break etc. And now you are yet again trying to be first in line trying to prove some sort of superiority m8? Guess what, I don't care whether you are first or second or third ;)
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Personally, I will stick with today rather than tomorrow. I don't have a crystal ball ;)
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ET has once again been defined. :) :) :D

Rephrased, "I will stick with today rather than tomorrow (chicken = pussy). I don't have a crystal ball (no balls and no prescience)

:) :D
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

DB, there is nothing wrong with patience. You consider reaction based decisions to be inferior compared to being first in line. This might come as a surprise to you, but we ain't discussing how to buy fresh water in Pakistan. Why the need to beat another guy or even majority by being one of the first to call a top? Sounds like an ego trip if you don't mind me saying so. Once a trend is broken it becomes a factual event where in a bear trend you need price to make lower lows and in bull vice versa. It is simples to understand. So why bash people that deal based on facts rather than fiction. Gold may be rallying for years & you will be calling tops for years, sometimes nailing intermediate ones, sometimes being squeezed until you puke as when there is no upper resistance who knows where a train might stop? In fact you said yourself in the past - a trend line break etc. And now you are yet again trying to be first in line trying to prove some sort of superiority m8? Guess what, I don't care whether you are first or second or third ;)
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You keep defining the HERD and yourself as a member therein, repeatedly. I got the message already.

>>>> I don't care whether you are first or second or third <<<<

I do. I like to be first. :)


>>>> Sounds like an ego trip if you don't mind me saying so.<<<<

Yeah, but I do love it so! :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

if Gold closes < 1228.25 on 1H, odds are favoring a nice Short that could be MY SHORT?
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We're on. Now I need a solid close < $1,219 AND continuation south. Downtrendline on 1H shows where the manual STOP should be.

If the short fails, I'll try again next time. :)
 
I love your enthusiasm but find your logic and methodology... well, wanting.

Soooooooooooo many buyers just above $1,000.

Why not just wait for a close below $1,000 before getting short? You know, swap some ego and a bit of trading range in exchange for better risk/reward skew?

You don't have to be a market timer to be a successful trader - I mean, if you're a natural at it then God Bless. For the majority of us mere mortals please be advised that there are lots of different and IMO better risk/reward methodologies.

Gold (and by extension other physical commodities) has replaced fixed income as a 'flight-to-quality' instrument and a favorite place to park cash.
 
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