Gold - on cusp of massive bearmarket :)

[JSSPMK]

Quote from deadbroke:

August 19, 2010

Gold could = might make one more top. This aspect is unclear to me right now. If it doesn't, then of course, June 20, 2010 is the top. I will update this aspect if/when it clears up.

But, that a massive bearmarket is coming or has already come since the June 2010 top, is quite evident to me.

Gold long-term bearmarket target = $250, possibly lower, the lower target will be provided if necessary, when we get there.

$250 is pretty much impossible IMO. Unrealistic target. Chinese will not allow this. What you been smoking?

Look, you expect equity markets to crash, short term DX will most likely take out resistance as cash becomes King during sell-off, but once smoke settles US's loan obligations, which are huge, will lead to USD following equity markets as tax revenue decreases dramatically. Some sort of war on bigger scale than Iraq/Afghan is more likely than Gold @ $250.

Perez-Santalla: Well, the average cost of production, that's a hard thing to nail down. But it's been projected between $400 and $500 an ounce. - Jan 2010.

 

[JSSPMK]

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[deadbroke]

Quote from promagma:

That would be a gutsy move .... a good call I think, but I have a feeling in my bones that we see a serious blowoff top before then .... $1600-$2000 range. How high do you think it could go?

This is exactly one of the things that bothers me - and I stated it in my opener posts re: one more top - but without this blowoff concept.

And Gold is quite capable of doing stuff like this.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from deadbroke:

This is exactly one of the things that bothers me - and I stated it in my opener posts re: one more top - but without this blowoff concept.

And Gold is quite capable of doing stuff like this.

But even if we do go one more top, its days are numbered - from the Feb 5, 2010 low it would be an easier count to see the clear 5 waves up.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from JSSPMK:

$250 is pretty much impossible IMO. Unrealistic target. Chinese will not allow this. What you been smoking?

Look, you expect equity markets to crash, short term DX will most likely take out resistance as cash becomes King during sell-off, but once smoke settles US's loan obligations, which are huge, will lead to USD following equity markets as tax revenue decreases dramatically. Some sort of war on bigger scale than Iraq/Afghan is more likely than Gold @ $250.

Perez-Santalla: Well, the average cost of production, that's a hard thing to nail down. But it's been projected between $400 and $500 an ounce. - Jan 2010.

Welcome JP.

The only way to survive at ET is to smoke a chillum a day.


OK, all good points, but you're mixing FA with TA and trying to make sense of all this using FA logic. It doesn't work that way.

But if we follow your reasoning about China, why would the USA allow Gold to go higher and compete with its treaury bonds given how important the latter is to keep its borrowings going strong?

About the war you mentioned that is going to dwarf the Gold = $250 postulate, jeez, that is exactly what I've been saying elsewhere in the overall picture I'm putting forth, namely that in a BEAR of this magnitude a gigantic war of > or = magnitude than WW2 is around the not so distant corner.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from deadbroke:

At $1,221 we'd have a trendline break. But a close below $1218 will be better for my expected Short.

if Gold closes < 1228.25 on 1H, odds are favoring a nice Short that could be MY SHORT?

 

[deadbroke]

For JP ...

I don't want to bring in other threads, but the basis for almost all my stuff is a DEFLATIONARY environment for the forseeable future, with the USD being the prime beneficiary, the Yen being a #2 despite all the crap about both governments' high debt problems.

The above might look like an FA argument but the underpinning is TA, pure TA in fact as per a major 5-wave move northbound is completed since the 1700s. So a correction that is commensurate with that bull rise is due.

This correction will dwarf the size of the Great Depression by a Richter Scale factor of 2 or 3.

There, you have my basis.

If I'm wrong I'm a total asshole because my entire life, money, investment, cash holdings, pussy etc., is geared to this. I took the big swing with this and kicked all alternates out the fckin window. I'm going with this 100% and have been now since coming to ET in October 2009.

 

[JSSPMK]

IF there was to be a major war...but I am not talking about what would happen to price of Gold IF there is a war, but rather what will happen to price of Gold IF there is no war or depression. Now that you have clarified in your last post the actual reason for your expectation of a dramatic decline in Gold price I will not argue the case. Personally, I will stick with today rather than tomorrow. I don't have a crystal ball

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

If gold is going to $250 then shorting here is a terrible trade. At least wait for it to decisively break below the recent support around 1150ish, so you have some evidence of downward momentum, and a defined risk to the upside. Shorting here would be a bit of a crapshoot, how do you stay short it if breaks to 1275-1300+?

Besides, we have seen none of the usual signs of a classic long-term top.

 

[gold5000]

Ha Ha Ha he he he I am laughing so hard I lost my breath. Gold at 250 dollars. Man are you on the wrong side of that one. With the amount of money this administration is pumping into the system 5000 an ounce will be the minimum.