As of today I am now totally out of my longs in these positions, with the exception of a few 1.47 & 1.48 euro calls expiring on Friday. IMO we are pretty close to a significant top. The gold all-time high is really close, oil is very close to the key $100 level, and the ⬠is very close to the key $1.50 level. There is massive one-way sentiment against the dollar, practically no major investors or speculators are betting on the greenback and those few that are must all be underwater significantly as of today. Today's price action is also symptomatic of capitulation at new all-time dollar lows. Finally, we have the Chinese central bank puking its gigantic dollar holdings after losing money on them for years. Whenever a Central Bank finally pukes out a massive multi-year loser, you simply have to consider going the other direction.
People might ask what is the potential catalyst for a dollar rally. Well, those same people are often talking about how subprime & housing is going to get worse, assuming this is bearish for the dollar. But if in fact housing really melts down and affects the rest of the economy, then IMO this is likely to cause massive risk-aversion and subsequent repatriation of capital from abroad (where the assets are, for the most part, more risky). We saw a premonition of this is August, with the dollar spiking and risk-assets getting creamed.
There's no immediate timing signal yet, but I am placing some initial options bets on a dollar rally. I'll increase size once the market appears to put in a reversal, up to a full bet once the market movement confirms my view. I think we could see $1.35 and maybe even $1.30 within the next 4-6 months.
People might ask what is the potential catalyst for a dollar rally. Well, those same people are often talking about how subprime & housing is going to get worse, assuming this is bearish for the dollar. But if in fact housing really melts down and affects the rest of the economy, then IMO this is likely to cause massive risk-aversion and subsequent repatriation of capital from abroad (where the assets are, for the most part, more risky). We saw a premonition of this is August, with the dollar spiking and risk-assets getting creamed.
There's no immediate timing signal yet, but I am placing some initial options bets on a dollar rally. I'll increase size once the market appears to put in a reversal, up to a full bet once the market movement confirms my view. I think we could see $1.35 and maybe even $1.30 within the next 4-6 months.
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