gold: new highs or reversal leg forming ?

I think it is time to adjust our Andrews forks to include the high. sadly this will lower the low.

you can see an uptrend all the time if you make your channels bigger and bigger.
soon it will be horizontal.

What up with options ?
 
So with today's plunge in gold price, I heard a number of interviews of traders who trade gold on technicals and are shorting because of technicals. But they almost all say they are bullish for the long term prospects.

I read some articles today at CNBC, and here is a common theme that got my attention. It comes under the category (my personal category), that as the woes of the US and others prospectively get deeper into economic black holes, it’s good to have the shiny stuff. At least enough to bribe the border guards. But there is something in these articles that runs counter to this DESPERATE COUNTRY scenario which turns my understanding upside down.


CNBC web site ...Apr 12, 2013 http://www.cnbc.com/id/100637888
"It's not the fact that Cyprus may have to liquidate their gold reserves in order to finance their bailout, it's the fact that if any other country in the world gets in trouble, gold is going to be the first thing to go," said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at iiTrader in Chicago. "And really,generally speaking, in the last five years, countries have had enormous gains in gold reserves. So if you're a country and you run into financial troubles, those gold reserves are the first thing they're going to have to liquidate in order to finance their bailout."

Obviously that throws lots of supply into the market. It won’t happen in the next few months except little Cyprus presumably.

I almost immediately after reading that first article (above) found this older article (below link) on CNBC web site from Dec, that CNBC found worthy of putting on its site again today. It corroborates the first article about countries selling their gold when in trouble:

Jim Rogers in Dec 2012: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100326475
“Gold prices have been gaining for over 12 straight years now, Rogers noted, adding that the safe haven asset has only seen a major correction once in that time period, during the global financial crisis back in 2008 when bullion fell 32 percent. “

QUESTION: So all along I have been thinking gold is the thing to have when melt down becomes reality. What gives ?



A little different question follows. Commodities. (Which gold is one.) Why did commodities get slammed today ? Here is what I know about commodity prices:
1. Weakening/strengthening currency, they go up/down. Takes more dollars to buy the same unit volume.
2. Robust or weak economies, they go up/down as demand/lack of demand for them increase/decrease for industrial reasons.
3. Fundamental issues inside of a commodity’s sector can influence price as in supply issues.

QUESTION: Why did commodities go down today when none of the aforementioned issued happened ? From what I read, Cyprus news of selling gold reserves to get money was a tipping point that accelerated selling pressure, but was not the prime cause.
 
hi deucy28. from my pov fundamental info/analysis has a very limited use, perhaps
a 5% contribution to my analysis and trading decisions - time frame dependent

THE problem with fa is that fa is inconsistent
my methods are absolute

the price of gold has been declining since Sep 2011
theory 1: it formed a reversal formation between Aug/11-Sep/12 and its highs have
seen their best
theory 2: it's undergoing a correction that will soon be completed and the price of
gold will rally to new highs

for chartists like me, one trades the chart
ALL the information one requires in order to trade any instrument is in the chart
 
As Cyprus is in the euro, why do they have to sell thier gold ? they them selves have no debt do they ? Is it possible to not have monetary control but to retain debt ?

If it is for debt that it is not really a sale. it is giving it to some one else. This means that some one is paid the gold for debt at market price.

It should not effect price technically
 
Quote from Wallace:

hi deucy28. from my pov fundamental info/analysis has a very limited use, perhaps
a 5% contribution to my analysis and trading decisions - time frame dependent

THE problem with fa is that fa is inconsistent
my methods are absolute
More...

I totally respect your POV from understanding your perspective as one coming from the trader you are. This IS Elite Trader web site, right ? And as I wrote on my last post, the interviews were with traders. Their answers, too, for explanation of today's sell off and maybe more to come was very T.A. explained, with selected fundamentals thrown in for support of their reasoning.

I don't trade gold. My question still stands from my last post from the perspective of of just owning some. Hedge. Investment. Insurance. Your statement about fundamentals driving gold as being inconsistent does seem to be the crux of my question at my last post. I would say it just has a lot of moving parts that act as variables individually that drive it, along with so many others that in the aggregate it becomes unpredictable the direction it will head based on fundamentals alone, unless they mostly line up in one direction. Otherwise, too many cross currents. That's my uneducated guess.
 
Quote from dandxg:

Well seeing RM's calls I will put my money on him besides who wants to go against a guy with a name Rearden Metal.
More...

Sounds like it would hurt if he hits you.
 
Quote from traitor786:

As Cyprus is in the euro, why do they have to sell thier gold ? they them selves have no debt do they ? Is it possible to not have monetary control but to retain debt ?

If it is for debt that it is not really a sale. it is giving it to some one else. This means that some one is paid the gold for debt at market price.

It should not effect price technically
More...

"Cyprus needs to find 6 billion euros more than originally forecast to meet its share of a 23-billion-euro rescue deal to recapitalize the country's banks, redeem its debts and meet other commitments."
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/12/news/economy/cyprus-bailout-eu-imf/

You may already know that, still asking a reasonable question.; I'm just not smart enough to understand it.
 
OK so the money goes out of Cyprus and to the new euro.

Seller is forced to sell. buyer takes the gold at the given price.

Price is not supposed to go down.

Countries are not selling their gold. the state of Cyprus gives it to the euro.

Price should not move there was new volume on both sides buying and selling.

why did price go down ? one can say that countries are accumulating.

But if the gold was sold on the market and ate up buy orders and then cyprus took the proceeds and and then paid the euro in cash it is a different story.

I assume they ship the gold as you cant really sell it on the market in physical form
 
Texas wants its physical gold investments to be protected from the governments hand and wants it to change the law to allow for physical holdings.

who lives in texas ?

who was Goldman in bed with ?

who said the price of gold will collapse?

The theory here is that they create fear people sell they buy the low and things turn around.

But this does not mean gold hits new highs. it can go from 700 to 1500 and they are happy. in the 700 to 1500 dollar range for example. only some one that knows what will happen will buy around those prices. trend will down so people will be short. those that held for years are down from today's price.

It doesnt matter. I cant place a short on gold as i cant log in to my payment gate way to fund my account.

So unless i find a way around this soon, I will have to sell.

how low will it go ? too many people say 1500 1400 1200 1000.

If the idea is to profit on Goldman side One cant rule out 10$ and one cant rule out today's price.

Again it doesn't really matter . just creating traffic free of charge. maybe ill right an ebook and monitize... oh wait i cant write
 
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