It's pretty clear what I was expecting didn't play out. The recent market action is simply not consistent with my view, so I've exited the last of my shorts at $810, as I mentioned in my prior post. I am flat now except a few Jan puts which will probably expire worthless.
I thought there was a big imbalance of longs in this market, but I probably overestimated how much. Right now, it does look pretty much like a sharp but not major correction in a bull market. I did think there were good prospects for a major dollar rally in the short/medium-term - 2 weeks later and I think I got the timing and direction fairly accurate, but I was wrong on the extent of the move, it was way smaller than I was expecting. Right now it looks as though the move is done for now and was just a moderate counter-trend correction, rather than the beginning of a more major selloff.
I thought there was a big imbalance of longs in this market, but I probably overestimated how much. Right now, it does look pretty much like a sharp but not major correction in a bull market. I did think there were good prospects for a major dollar rally in the short/medium-term - 2 weeks later and I think I got the timing and direction fairly accurate, but I was wrong on the extent of the move, it was way smaller than I was expecting. Right now it looks as though the move is done for now and was just a moderate counter-trend correction, rather than the beginning of a more major selloff.
I agree with you about the recent action - it's a pretty decisive bounce off $775 and break above $800. As for the major collapse, I was expecting a move below $700 at least, and thought a 20% fall over 6-8 weeks was likely, that's a pretty big move for a low volatility commodity like gold. 
