GOLD has topped !
- Thread starter EmAy
- Start date
I just leafed through the whole thread and I must admit I'm rather disappointed. There are hardly any arguments given for either side (long, short, flat), nor is there any deeper analysis of the situation.
Most of the time when a product is announced it is a good sign for histeria, e.g. nano-tech funds, silver etf when silver hit ~16$ and so on.
Secondly, gold was not always the inflation hedge everyone is so found of talking about. This relationship is not static at all.
We are in a phase in the business cycle where are commodities in general and precious metals in spefic are poised to correct.
If we have a real secondary bear-market in gold we will be likely to correct to at least 450-500$.
I would be interested in the following: How can one analyse to what extent gold is an inflation hedge? What role do the dollar-holding of the asian central banks play?
Most of the time when a product is announced it is a good sign for histeria, e.g. nano-tech funds, silver etf when silver hit ~16$ and so on.
Secondly, gold was not always the inflation hedge everyone is so found of talking about. This relationship is not static at all.
We are in a phase in the business cycle where are commodities in general and precious metals in spefic are poised to correct.
If we have a real secondary bear-market in gold we will be likely to correct to at least 450-500$.
I would be interested in the following: How can one analyse to what extent gold is an inflation hedge? What role do the dollar-holding of the asian central banks play?
Will gold's upside potential be capped by the "unconventional" oils eg. oil shales and canadian oil sands ?
since gold is bought as a hedge against inflation (and declining dollar), a cap on oil prices will also mean a cap on gold's upside potential.
the technolgies used for the oil shales and canadian sands are not able to produce cheaper oil yet, but the canadian sands are currently producing 1 miliiion barrels of oil per day.
also, the oil shales are ready for production, just that it is still not economically viable, yet. but if oil goes north to 80 or above, oil shales will be a good substitute.
so yes canadian oil sands and oil shales may not be substitutes for conventional oil yet, but when prices get too high "unconventional" oil may possibly cap the upside potential.
we also have shell ceo and bp chief grp exec saying that oil prices will decline significantly.
Sept. 18, 2006 issue - Shell CEO Heroen van der Veer was calling the drop in oil prices even before it began last week. An oil-industry veteran who is not given to rash predictions, he spoke recently to NEWSWEEK's Rana Foroohar about the industry's most pressing questions, including oil nationalism, security and those threatening prices.
Do you agree with those like BP's John Browne who see prices falling to $40, or even $25 to $30 a barrel in the long run?
We don't give the precise figures. But we do believe that future prices will be significantly lower than today.
Increasingly powerful state oil companies are limiting Western access to the world's known reserves. Does that worry you?
Easy oil is now mostly in the hands of state-owned companies. The added value of multinational companies like Shell is that with cutting-edge technology we can be very good in unconventionalsâoil and gas that doesn't easily come out of the ground. That would include things like oil sands, oil shale and deepwater reserves.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14788769/site/newsweek/
since gold is bought as a hedge against inflation (and declining dollar), a cap on oil prices will also mean a cap on gold's upside potential.
the technolgies used for the oil shales and canadian sands are not able to produce cheaper oil yet, but the canadian sands are currently producing 1 miliiion barrels of oil per day.
also, the oil shales are ready for production, just that it is still not economically viable, yet. but if oil goes north to 80 or above, oil shales will be a good substitute.
so yes canadian oil sands and oil shales may not be substitutes for conventional oil yet, but when prices get too high "unconventional" oil may possibly cap the upside potential.
we also have shell ceo and bp chief grp exec saying that oil prices will decline significantly.
Sept. 18, 2006 issue - Shell CEO Heroen van der Veer was calling the drop in oil prices even before it began last week. An oil-industry veteran who is not given to rash predictions, he spoke recently to NEWSWEEK's Rana Foroohar about the industry's most pressing questions, including oil nationalism, security and those threatening prices.
Do you agree with those like BP's John Browne who see prices falling to $40, or even $25 to $30 a barrel in the long run?
We don't give the precise figures. But we do believe that future prices will be significantly lower than today.
Increasingly powerful state oil companies are limiting Western access to the world's known reserves. Does that worry you?
Easy oil is now mostly in the hands of state-owned companies. The added value of multinational companies like Shell is that with cutting-edge technology we can be very good in unconventionalsâoil and gas that doesn't easily come out of the ground. That would include things like oil sands, oil shale and deepwater reserves.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14788769/site/newsweek/
No rocket up is possible until after the elections.
Your probably right, (thats your job after all
) but im guessing on around nov3
for irrational exuberance to dry up.
To me, the last month or so in gold has really lacked selling conviction.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
) but im guessing on around nov3for irrational exuberance to dry up.
To me, the last month or so in gold has really lacked selling conviction.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
Ok, so it wasnt much of a rocket.........
Still, not a shabby call, no?
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
Question, is will this hold.
I suspect it will, mostly.
If so much as a whisper of disaster spread, and if you think north korean brinkmanship doesnt count, well.........
You may be right, but you CANNOT discount all time indice highs, and the respectively low price of gold in the current economic climate.
$RM$ may be right here, the real rocket CANT occur until after the elections, but this is difficult.
Basically, lower prices would, or should, be a bargain.
Still, not a shabby call, no?
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
Question, is will this hold.
I suspect it will, mostly.
If so much as a whisper of disaster spread, and if you think north korean brinkmanship doesnt count, well.........
You may be right, but you CANNOT discount all time indice highs, and the respectively low price of gold in the current economic climate.
$RM$ may be right here, the real rocket CANT occur until after the elections, but this is difficult.
Basically, lower prices would, or should, be a bargain.