Gold "Gone Wild" Where does it end? $2,000.00?

[DrPepper]

Quote from zboy2854A:

right now, there are too many indicators showing this current run is unsustainable and quickly approaching a top. I still believe gold has a date with 3000 or higher eventually, but not until after a significant sustained pullback during the remainder of the deflationary forces we are still facing.

One other indicator you did not mention is that the net COT commercial index for gold and silver has been getting progressively more short for the last 6 months, suggesting a coming temporary top.

I can't wait for a significant pullback in gold and silver, so I can buy more. All countries seem to be rushing to devalue their currencies and people are losing faith in paper money. Thus, the interest in gold and silver.

 

[matgallis]

Quote from DrPepper:

One other indicator you did not mention is that the net COT commercial index for gold and silver has been getting progressively more short for the last 6 months, suggesting a coming temporary top.

I can't wait for a significant pullback in gold and silver, so I can buy more. All countries seem to be rushing to devalue their currencies and people are losing faith in paper money. Thus, the interest in gold and silver.

Ding. This is why the miners are lagging. Commercial shorts = miners/producers etc

 

[Anaconda]

Quote from zboy2854A:


Even all those cash for gold commercials and gold party advertisements I was seeing every 5 minutes have all but disappeared (at least in my viewings), indicating that all those investors who were busy buying up scrap gold cheaply aren't doing so quite as aggressively, and are turning into sellers as much as buyers.

You don't get it how it works. They buy scrap gold at absurd discounts, smelt it into bars acceptable by CME standards and sell futs with intent to deliver.

Regardless, why fight the trend. Gold and especially silver have been suppressed by the futures shorts.

 

[zboy2854A]

Quote from Anaconda:

You don't get it how it works. They buy scrap gold at absurd discounts, smelt it into bars acceptable by CME standards and sell futs with intent to deliver.

I get how it works just fine, thanks. And the recent lack of advertising and hype from these businesses compared to the levels of advertising and hype when gold was sub-1000 is an additional contrarian indicator, suggesting that the cash for gold outfits are currently scaling back on their purchasing.

Regardless, why fight the trend. Gold and especially silver have been suppressed by the futures shorts.

I agree that the trend should not be fought, and the long term trend has been up. But a lot of indicators are now starting to show divergences and suggest that a near term top for gold may be coming. So I've got my trailing stops in place. If it wants to "melt up" in a final bubble move, fine by me. But everything I'm seeing tells me this is an unsustainable move, and I'm definitely in a more cautious mode from this point forward.

 

[dtan1e]

today i was on the elevator and some china guy was telling a china woman that the US dollar is going to get depreciate more and more and so gold is a good buy and i was thinking wtf even the chinese commoner knows that

 

[Optionpro007]

Quote from dtan1e:

today i was on the elevator and some china guy was telling a china woman that the US dollar is going to get depreciate more and more and so gold is a good buy and i was thinking wtf even the chinese commoner knows that

That is a huge red flag....

 

[zboy2854A]

Quote from dtan1e:

today i was on the elevator and some china guy was telling a china woman that the US dollar is going to get depreciate more and more and so gold is a good buy and i was thinking wtf even the chinese commoner knows that

Yep, the contrarian flags are getting bigger and bigger. In fact, everyone is so bearish on the Dollar that I've started shorting the EUR/USD futures.

 

[cleveland45]

Quote from dtan1e:

today i was on the elevator and some china guy was telling a china woman that the US dollar is going to get depreciate more and more and so gold is a good buy and i was thinking wtf even the chinese commoner knows that

well why not? The Chinese gov't is encouraging their people to buy gold.

 

[Anaconda]

Quote from zboy2854A:

I get how it works just fine, thanks. And the recent lack of advertising and hype from these businesses compared to the levels of advertising and hype when gold was sub-1000 is an additional contrarian indicator, suggesting that the cash for gold outfits are currently scaling back on their purchasing.

You said that the Cash4Gold guys are sellers now instead of buyers. You're wrong, they have always been buyers & re-sellers. As for the recent lack of advertising, you are very mistaken. More of these shops are opening up by the week. The "gold parties" are being advertised in local papers as well as Cash4Gold copycats. My guess is that these new shops are middlemen for Cash4Gold as they need the use of the refinery. The public are sellers not buyers of gold. What do you think that means, hmm?

I agree that the trend should not be fought, and the long term trend has been up. But a lot of indicators are now starting to show divergences and suggest that a near term top for gold may be coming. So I've got my trailing stops in place. If it wants to "melt up" in a final bubble move, fine by me. But everything I'm seeing tells me this is an unsustainable move, and I'm definitely in a more cautious mode from this point forward.

What ton of indicators? Name one. Silver lagging gold? You do realize that silver has lagged gold for years. It took a much bigger dive during the selloff but also made a much better move up allowing greater gains. (wish i bought up more bullion when it was sub $10)
Do you even realize that gold is moving up in small increments with pullbacks in a steady appreciation? It's not like it's flying $100/ounce a day. What is so unsustainable about the move? Gold goes through significant sideways periods before making any moves.
I don't know what you're looking at, but you're obviously not seeing the rapid money supply growth of USD, as well as significant growth of other fiat currencies.

 

[Anaconda]

Quote from zboy2854A:

Yep, the contrarian flags are getting bigger and bigger. In fact, everyone is so bearish on the Dollar that I've started shorting the EUR/USD futures.

I'm guessing you would have been a big buyer of GBP in first half of 1992.