Quote from Jayford:
No.
But I am one of the few dollar bulls. The only reason why commodities have spiked is due to the massive liquidity available. Thanks to the FED post dot.com implosion.
The FED will be forced to tighten in the coming months. Bye bye gold, hello dollar.
Note, 99% of economists disagree with this. Perfect in my mind as they are always sheep.
I am, reluctantly, starting to share your opinion. The nature of the problem facing us (credit meltdown) is inherently deflationary, although the escape will be inflationary (the deflation shows up in the short term, followed by longer term structural inflation).
I would not exclude a strengthening of the dollar against the Euro to 1.20, simply because the fed's and paulson's defense of the rate of fall of the dollar (note what I said there) via interest rate policy has been overdone and is likely to create a recession with excessive debt. Fed fund rates will fall, too little, too late, and we'll see Gary Shilling be correct with a strengthening dollar and 30 year rates back down to 3%. For a while.
The only place where I disagree is regarding the price of gold or oil, and possibly agricultural commodities. Because of the fiat system and competitive devaluations of currencies, I think players are starting to 'opt out', and some of these players may be certain CB's as well. So, I could see a world where we have a strengthening dollar, stable gold price, and still relatively high prices of oil (from global demand and political instability). Agriculturals move due to different reasons, but stay bid.
Other commodities, etc... may either be lifted by a rising tide or simply not participate, particularly the industrial ones as demand slows.
