...who remembers that MGM classic.....perhaps this will prove to be a little different....the hero may not win....could this be classic shorting by momentum players....it would seem logical, that on exiting at 700+ having enjoyed/achieved your high, one would short similar volumes....it looks like short covering....gaping and periods with no activity in the last 24hrs.....65 week moving average around 510....the 65 week, never been breached....maybe this time...or is that too much of a reach....today's usd index similar in value to 430 gold....admittedly oil is up...but hey, arabs buy other things than gold........read an article claming offers as high as 940 contracts during the free fall...what;s the annual production ???...around 500k, in contract terms...if this idea is remotely correct, and the institutions/hedge funds cover with the producer/miner given the producers haven't pre sold to their maximum plus a bit...an idea, which would defy logic, coming off a cost base of 300- .... where the future buyer for any spec longs, the jewellery trade, very much use too lower values.....will be hard for the CB;s to accept usd lower than 82...foreign deposits/Tbills considered, not to mention depreciated purchasing power both present and future receipts....my view lower..await arguments...
Gold correction has ended
- Thread starter GlobalFinancier
- Start date
......the MGM classic........the golden fleece....
579.50, higher, long. Yes, shortchanged $7, but it was unclear.... Focusing on the major trend...
.....572/3......still think it's short covering.....cleaning out the weak longs and stacked lower bids.......but I've been wrong before.....
How much gold do the central banks really have to sell? It is an interesting question and worth pursuing further.
Personally, I don't think we've seen even the first half of the advance.
Personally, I don't think we've seen even the first half of the advance.
I think we dip below 500 on:
USD strength
Continued liquidation mode in risk assets e.g. emerging markets / us equities
Higher rates
Only 9% of net longs reduced.
I want to buy the metal, but think we have more blood ahead.
USD strength
Continued liquidation mode in risk assets e.g. emerging markets / us equities
Higher rates
Only 9% of net longs reduced.
I want to buy the metal, but think we have more blood ahead.
If I compare the recent price action to 100s of markets from the past, currently it's acting like a short-term bounce during a moderate bear market, in a secular bull market. Similar to US stocks in mid 1998, or oil in early 2003 after the Iraq invasion. In other words, the current market phase is corrective - a moderate bear market or strong correction - but long-term gold still acts like it is in a secular bull market.
Past experience of secular bull market corrections/bear markets suggests that the best course is to be flat - maybe with trading shorts - and wait for the correction to run its course and see some kind of panic capitulation, before getting long again. So I am waiting for people to give up on gold, and looking to buy later once price starts acting strong whilst sentiment remains negative or indifferent.
In value terms I think gold will eventually hit 1000, but has downside potential to around 450-500. But that's just a very rough estimate; I prefer to let the market action guide me.
Past experience of secular bull market corrections/bear markets suggests that the best course is to be flat - maybe with trading shorts - and wait for the correction to run its course and see some kind of panic capitulation, before getting long again. So I am waiting for people to give up on gold, and looking to buy later once price starts acting strong whilst sentiment remains negative or indifferent.
In value terms I think gold will eventually hit 1000, but has downside potential to around 450-500. But that's just a very rough estimate; I prefer to let the market action guide me.
By the way, I think people are missing the point somewhat here. Its not really worth trying to guess whether to buy gold at 560 vs 580. If you are a long term bull and think gold will hit 1000 - or even higher - then what matters is having on and holding a large long position when the market is making its subsequent very large price advance.
Just as it did not matter so much whether you bought at 375, 400, or 430, but rather whether you held a large long position from 450 to 700, so it will not matter whether you pick the exact bottom of this correction. Rather, what will make the big money is identifying when the correction has ended, spotting a resumption of the long-term bull market, and then getting and staying long until that bull run is over.
Just as it did not matter so much whether you bought at 375, 400, or 430, but rather whether you held a large long position from 450 to 700, so it will not matter whether you pick the exact bottom of this correction. Rather, what will make the big money is identifying when the correction has ended, spotting a resumption of the long-term bull market, and then getting and staying long until that bull run is over.
