Gold correction has ended

Ivanovich · May 31, 2006

Quote from zdreg:

what is your opinion of the $us dollar for 3 months 6months 1 yr vs. gold compared to the yen vs. gold?

I'm a bit skeptical in answering your questions, given your strong viewpoint and our history in the past (re: Banana Republic). But I'll take a chance and answer in hopes you're willing to discuss this openly, and not looking to flame me for having a view that may be opposite your own...

Gold price will correct to $580ish in my opinion, probably in the next few months. At that point it'll take off again with intent to take out it's highs and beyond.

Buying now is fine if you're doing it for the long run. But I think there will be better buying ops shortly.

contango · May 31, 2006

Quote from Ivanovich:

How do you judge what kind of a trader I am when all I did was post a number?

The market dipped on the day. You pointed this out to Global Financier... I assumed you're an intra-day trader. After all, he may be right tomorrow.... And I did have a smiley...

NZDSPeCIALISt · May 31, 2006

Check out the Daily chart - their has been a HUGE inverted head and shoulders pattern developing over the last 2 weeks - Shoulder 1 - may 22 nd, Head may 24 th, second shoulder today.

The 50 % retracement from March 2006 upthrust is 632.71 - we are almost there...

Then again.... their is a HHUUUGGGEEE shooting star on the Monthly chart. If it holds - and the aforementioned H and S is a sucker punch - then enjoy the ride down!!!

Nobody knows anything

But I agree with Ivanovitch - this is going down. CCI 6 on the monthly shows a head and shoulder formation and we are on the second shoulder.

zdreg · May 31, 2006

Quote from Ivanovich:

I'm a bit skeptical in answering your questions, given your strong viewpoint and our history in the past (re: Banana Republic). But I'll take a chance and answer in hopes you're willing to discuss this openly, and not looking to flame me for having a view that may be opposite your own...

Gold price will correct to $580ish in my opinion, probably in the next few months. At that point it'll take off again with intent to take out it's highs and beyond.

Buying now is fine if you're doing it for the long run. But I think there will be better buying ops shortly.

zdreg · May 31, 2006

Quote from Ivanovich:

I'm a bit skeptical in answering your questions, given your strong viewpoint and our history in the past (re: Banana Republic). But I'll take a chance and answer in hopes you're willing to discuss this openly, and not looking to flame me for having a view that may be opposite your own...

Gold price will correct to $580ish in my opinion, probably in the next few months. At that point it'll take off again with intent to take out it's highs and beyond.

Buying now is fine if you're doing it for the long run. But I think there will be better buying ops shortly.

what is your scenario of gold vs. yen?

Ivanovich · May 31, 2006

Quote from contango:

The market dipped on the day. You pointed this out to Global Financier... I assumed you're an intra-day trader. After all, he may be right tomorrow.... And I did have a smiley...

Ah, the ol' smiley

The correction has not ended. He said it did. That's all I was pointing out.

Ivanovich · May 31, 2006

Quote from zdreg:

what is your scenario of gold vs. yen?

I believe the Yen will appreciate vis a vis the dollar. I believe the dollar will depreciate vis a vis gold. But I do not have a thought on yen to gold.

smilingsynic · Jun 1, 2006

Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt:

Check out the Daily chart - their has been a HUGE inverted head and shoulders pattern developing over the last 2 weeks - Shoulder 1 - may 22 nd, Head may 24 th, second shoulder today.

The 50 % retracement from March 2006 upthrust is 632.71 - we are almost there...

Then again.... their is a HHUUUGGGEEE shooting star on the Monthly chart. If it holds - and the aforementioned H and S is a sucker punch - then enjoy the ride down!!!

Nobody knows anything

But I agree with Ivanovitch - this is going down. CCI 6 on the monthly shows a head and shoulder formation and we are on the second shoulder.

Yeah, AND there is a picture perfect descending triangle.

No position.

mhashe · Jun 1, 2006

With global stock markets pulling back....and barely a nudge in Treasuries and Gold, it seems there is a liquidity crunch in the works. Also I note that the USD is holding at current levels inspite of the incessant "world-is-ending" bearish news for the USD. Does this mean the USD has indeed bottomed and will soon start trending up? if the USD does trend up, Gold will show further weakness.

2cents · Jun 1, 2006

gold is dead and so is silver...

as a hedgie one has a few problems:
- prospect of rates starting to go up in Japan, v.slowly but in relation to the huge amounts of so-far-free JPY used to finance all manner of speculative trading everywhere, every 25bp bump will prompt players to remove billions of $ worth of exposure / OI off the table over the next 1-3 years... clearly not a healthy prospect for red hot speculative mkts like commodities in recent years...
- with US rates at 5% and not done rising, and similarly rising in the EU etc to keep inflation risks in check, more money will be flowing away from riskier and peaking mkts into safe & rising fixed-income instruments... again not a good factor for commodities etc
- as for supply/demand, China with its $550 - 900bio NPLs looks more like a time bomb than a perpetual growth engine to me... huge credit bubble there, huge overcapacity... its not a question of if, but when, it will pop...

... just a view ;-)