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Gold at $500 per ounce
- Thread starter talknet
- Start date
<i>What will be price of gold if Central banks sell $500 billion worth of gold?. It will be a Domino affect and will trigger "mass selling".</i>
--->Much lower for the duration of the liquidation, and then much higher shortly after the selling is finished. This occured on a smaller scale in the late '90s.
<i>Also where is the remaining $3 trillion Gold?</i>
--->Privately held jewelry, mostly. Also privately held bullion and gold used for industrial purposes.
--->Much lower for the duration of the liquidation, and then much higher shortly after the selling is finished. This occured on a smaller scale in the late '90s.
<i>Also where is the remaining $3 trillion Gold?</i>
--->Privately held jewelry, mostly. Also privately held bullion and gold used for industrial purposes.
Yup, Britian's selling made the bottom. They dumped gold that thousands of British soldiers and sailors had died for in the past 500 years, and now are down to where what they have left is so old its not up to current purity standards.
I think the Japanese credit rating agency questioning the US's ability to repay the mountain of debt last night, forecasting a 40% decline in the dollar, and suggesting the best path might be for Japan to just forgive the debt seals the fate of talknet's $500 gold pipedream.
I think the Japanese credit rating agency questioning the US's ability to repay the mountain of debt last night, forecasting a 40% decline in the dollar, and suggesting the best path might be for Japan to just forgive the debt seals the fate of talknet's $500 gold pipedream.
Gold price will first rise to $950 - $1000 in the next 20 days and then it will crash to $400 - $500 per ounce.Quote from thriftybob:
I think the Japanese credit rating agency questioning the US's ability to repay the mountain of debt last night, forecasting a 40% decline in the dollar, and suggesting the best path might be for Japan to just forgive the debt seals the fate of talknet's $500 gold pipedream.
What about "ancient gold" for which there is no mining record.Quote from Rearden Metal:
Total of all gold ever mined: 158,000 tons = $4 Trillion.
Total gold reserves of all central banks combined: 30,000 tons = Less than $1 Trillion.
India and Gulf countries have the "Bulk of ancient gold"
I think "ancient gold" must be 25% of "modern gold". That would be 40,000 Tons of ancient gold.
Quote from talknet:
Gold price will first rise to $950 - $1000 in the next 20 days and then it will crash to $400 - $500 per ounce.
Instead of making what would appear to be an absolutely silly forecast like that, why don't you back it up with some sort of reason for it to come true?
So let me get this straight... You own gold now, plan to sell it over $950 or maybe $1000, soon, then you're going to short the crap out of it, and wait for the US dollar to double or triple in value, and then buy back the gold at $300 to $500.
Sounds like a plan, LOL.
Admittedly, IMO, gold can get over or undervalued at any particular point in time. This is especially true when you are trying to measure its value in FIAT paper currency that can change in value up or down by 20 or 30% in a year, also possibly being over or undervalued at any particular point in time. The big difference is that no well meaning politician or central banker has the ability to print more gold. If there was ANY way they could, they would, I'm sure, but they can't. To print more gold you need to pay about $600 to $700 per ounce in land, royalties, exploration, taxes, labor, fuel, consumables, interest, and administrative costs for people to find and get it out of the ground for you. If gold goes much below that production declines as more and more marginal mines can't afford to keep producing. Sure, there are a very few mines in the world that could still operate at $500 and probably one or two mines in the world that might still be producing at $300, but the output would be very small compared to global demand. Even at $600 or $650 gold there would be absolutely no capital available to even consider building any new mines or expanding any older ones.
Look at supply. For example Zim. They have plenty of mines, but they have almost all now closed. They can't afford to buy the fuel, or chemicals needed to mine gold because they aren't receiving enough for the gold to be able to pay for them. As prices go lower more and more mines around the world fall into this same trap. With base metal prices now having crashed, many of the mines that mined gold as a byproduct or coproduct have stopped producing. Gold is not getting easier to find. They keep having to go deeper and deeper to find it, and that cost more and more for energy to run the mines. That's one of the reasons South African output is declining so badly. Another factor is central bank sales and leasing. Fewer and fewer central banks have less and less gold they are willing to sell. In addition, they are no longer trying to lease out gold, and are trying to get the gold back that they leased out in the past. I'm not sure why they want it back, but they are. They were supplying 500 tons of gold per year of sales, plus what they were leasing to the market. The sales alone were 20% of total supply. That means demand has to drop by 20% longer term if you expect the price to hold stable, let alone drop by half or two thirds.
I remember a guy here a few years back that was saying that so much gold would be recovered from the oceans that gold would go to $300. I haven't seen him around lately to ask what went wrong with his theory.
Sounds to me like you are just another joker talking your book...
All I expect from my gold is that it will still be as shiny and weigh as much as it did before. Man has always wanted gold. I don't think that will change.