Gold at $500 per ounce

It is probably time to fade the retail gold buyers with the record new (and late) money coming to physical gold and new gold funds. If now is truly the destruction of the world's financial system, gold should be trading at $2,000 and up.

I know investors who still have gold coins bought with gold at $1,400 per oz, with 1980 US dollar. These coins has been out of circulation and pretty useless ever since. This is the intent of gold bugs and dealers: to get physical gold out of circulation on a message of fear and as an asset of last resort, which is really the only way to sell an asset of little practical values, other than historical and psychological ones.

In Switzerland, home to the world's largest private banking industry, demand for gold bars and coins shot up six-fold to 21 tonnes in the third quarter of 2008, more than in any other European country.
Retail investment in gold rose 121 percent in the third quarter of 2008, an important contributor to the overall increase in global demand, the Gold Council said.
.............
Private bank Julius Baer in October launched a fund to invest exclusively in gold bars stored in highly secured vaults in Switzerland.
"The fascination with gold has been there since the beginning of civilization," said Schnellmann. "It cannot be explained: you can't eat gold, you cannot build anything resistant with it and yet people want to hoard it."
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http://www.reuters.com/article/inDepthNews/idUSTRE4BG07720081217
Gold action in the 70s and 80s. Similar chart action can be seen today. If you are a long term trader, consider long after it breaks the trendline on the weekly chart from March 2008 high, and keep an eye on the US dollar index $DXY.

If however, the world economy recovers and inflation gets out of control then gold may take off, but that is unlikely for a while.

Gold70s80s.gif
 
Quote from talknet:

4 reasons why I think Gold price will crash to $400 - $500 per ounce
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okay cat...have you or will you short Gold with real "cold hard" cash $$$...please share...
 
Quote from talknet:

4) Al-Qaeda has been silent for past 7 years. There is always a "great silence" before a massive storm (nature's rule). I think there will a massive terror attack on USA and Europe any time now. It will be bigger than 9/11 attacks.
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dude...dude...if this really even happened...Gold would SOAR!!!...when there are times of crisis...investors put their cash into Gold....
 
Quote from Kicking:Al Qaeda no longer exists, iIf you believe it does then you are like those who believed there were WMD in Irak which speaks volume about your intelligence.
It's been destroyed and what is left is a number of small groups with little connection to Bin laden (who is dead) and which act independently within a very loose network of islamic fundamentalists.
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Crude Oil reached $145 in 2008. I think 5% or 10% of "Oil money" from gulf countries goes to Taliban and Al-Aqaeda as financial help.

Worldwide terrorists must have become rich when Crude Oil reached $145 per barrel. They must have purchased High-tech weapons. Even weapons of mass destruction is possible.


Quote from Kicking:And why do you expect a war between India and Pakistan within 2 months ?
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After Mumbai terror attacks, India wants to conduct air-stikes on terror camps based in Pakistan. India wants to copy USA air-strikes in Afghanistan.

If any Indian figther jet enters Pakistan air-space, it will be shot down immedaitely. Pakistan army is stronger, sophisticated and highly motivated because of General Pervez Musharaf's 8 years rule.

Pakistan will not co-operate with India for arresting terrorists (understandable). So India has no other option but to attack terror camps or Pakistan which will lead to full-scale war.
 
Gulf states do not sponsor terrorism. It would go against their interests. Private individuals within these states perhaps. But again Al Qaeda has been destroyed I doubt they have the organisation to carry out such sophisticated attack.

Further more , the election of Obama has changed the landscape. I am willing to bet that even the most die hard fundamentalists are willing to give him a chance and wait and see if a Muslim will take less of a one-sided approach to the Middle East problems.
After all they got what they wanted, Americans are sick of war , sick of the republican shenanigans, sick of their bad reputation abroad (it's impossible to talk to Americans abroad, they will run away as soon as you ask them if they are American!) Americans
are taking a second look at what they do in the Middle East .
 
Making investment predictions based on such unfounded speculation as what Middle Eastern countries might or might not be doing isn't a very smart way to go.

Taking into account what we do know, which is that the Fed is throwing the kitchen sink at reflation, and the incoming Obama administration plans upward of $800 billion or more in new stimulus and spending, and you have a recipe for gold rising if for no other reason than the inevitable inflation that will spread like wildfire. May take some time to show up, but I'd be absolutely shocked if gold didn't convincingly break $1200 an ounce by mid 2009.
 
Quote from talknet:

Reason 5) Crude Oil will fall to $25 or less per barrel. No more money for Oil-rich gulf countries who are Gold-lovers.
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Dum-dum.
Oil will be the catalyst to re-inflate the economy. Physicals en masse along with infrastructure equity will participate. As the economy re-inflates, insolvent giants will unload still more toxic material, all the while interest rates remain near 0%. The re-inflation causes at best stagflation, at worst hyperinflation. At last interest rates move dramatically higher, and oil once again collapses, hence the fed has (already) lost control of the dollar. Metals are the (big time) beneficiary of the dollar collapse.

So it is said, so it shall be. Prepare now.
Obama-Lama

edit: the terms re-inflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, and even depression will be headlines during 2009. Keep your limbs inside the vehicle at all times.
 
Quote from talknet:

2) India is the biggest consumer of Gold in this world. There will a full-scale war between India and Pakistan within 2 months. Both of them have Nuclear weapons.
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Today Pakistan Air Force conducted exercise over several of its cities. They are preparing for war.
 
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