Going public with a system ruins it?

Platypus · Feb 24, 2005

Quote from ArchAngel:

750K ES contracts traded today. If you and 10,000 of your closest friends traded 10 contracts each today you'd account for only 13% of the volume.

but if you and 10,000 of your closest friends were trading the same ES system, where would you be filled when your group 100,000 lot order hit the market? and the exit also..

cable · Feb 24, 2005

Quote from Platypus:

but if you and 10,000 of your closest friends were trading the same ES system, where would you be filled when your group 100,000 lot order hit the market? and the exit also..

If your system depends on perfect entries and exits to be profitable, it's not much of a system.

OddTrader · Feb 24, 2005

Quote from Maxprofit$:

The money management part of the system, there's no harm sharing it.

Of course yes, If it doesn't work well.

stock777 · Feb 24, 2005

They ought to close this thread now, as you are much too close to revealing the great underlying secret of all markets.

If it happens to slip. they'll have to convene a special meeting of the Rainbow Tribunal, and change the rules on ya again.

Then you'll have to run 346,000 new backtests to figure out what they've done.

stock777 · Feb 25, 2005

Glad you got the message.

jtpaladin · Mar 1, 2005

No, because there are so many people trading in a market that volume alone erases any advantage that someone might have discovered with a system. All systems are basically particular views of a market.

Martini · Mar 1, 2005

Originally posted by jtpaladin
No, because there are so many people trading in a market that volume alone erases any advantage that someone might have discovered with a system.

You're saying that no systems work?

Cutten · Mar 3, 2005

Quote from Random.Capital:

Markets as we know them have been around for about 500 years, more or less continuously. It takes a pretty acute case of naivete to think you're coming up with something a million traders haven't already seen a billion times.

Counter-example - the Black Scholes model for option pricing.

JanaSergeevna · Mar 3, 2005

Quote from Random.Capital:Markets as we know them have been around for about 500 years, more or less continuously. It takes a pretty acute case of naivete to think you're coming up with something a million traders haven't already seen a billion times.

Or maybe just a pretty acute case of arrogance. Or maybe just a pretty acute case of technology. Or maybe just a pretty acute case of realism, in finding something that many people have often seen and ignored, maybe through lack or recognition and for a variety of other reasons.

Anseld · Mar 3, 2005

Quote from Cutten:

Counter-example - the Black Scholes model for option pricing.

lol.

cutten, do you know what are you talking about?

1.) the black scholes model *isn't*even a "system."

it's just a formula. just a tool. not a trading system. the black scholes model does not give signals on when to buy or sell.

2.) as for its dependency as a model, that's weak, too. even though it gained recognition from the noble prize, that pricing model hasn't even provided accurate derivaitve values for awhile now. anyone serious with options trading knows about how that specific theoretical model works poorly on real-world volatilities and disregards some of the most fundamental aspects of option valuation.

professonals and exchanges on the floor across america and the world don't use black-scholes. it is full of holes.