Going full time

[newwurldmn]

Substitute AI with computer intelligence. Of course as computers become more and more advanced, computers will replace more and more human activity. That of course goes for trading as well.

ChatGBT is just a reference for how advanced a computer has become.

So what I allow myself to tell the newcomer that wants to give up his job is that he should be aware when he chooses this career path that he will compete with computer intelligence at a level that did not exist when I started 14 years ago and that it will accelerate in the coming years.

i started 20 years ago, and there are just as many opportunities to earn as there was back then. those opportunities are different but at the end of the day, people are risk averse and will compensate you to take risk.

 

[zzz123]

edge in the financial market is self-destructive and ai can't change that, I would suspect there will have a lot of blowout on a large scale if ai do take over

 

[tomkat22]

It's just a numbers game(duh). I suppose it comes down to how much you need to live on annually income-wise. If you're skilled enough to pull at least 10% from the market EVERY SINGLE YEAR,guaranteed, and you could "survive" on a Spartan annual income of 50k then you just need to maintain 500k buying power in your trading account.

 

[NoahA]

Substitute AI with computer intelligence. Markets will continue to be risky. Markets will continue to move dramatically in response to new unpredictable information just as today. But the systematic correlation - the quant strategies - will dry up, because at some point some computers will be better able find those strategies and thus take profit away from the humans that lived of those strategies in the past.

If you are one of the few that own the most powerful and intelligent computers, this is of course an opportunity - not a threat. I am not one of those. So I assume at some point I will go out of business and have to live of my capital, which is fine.

I am having trouble figuring out how the chart will change. Could you perhaps draw some sort of mock-up of what you think a 1 minute chart would look like if all the trading is done by super computers?

Right now its fairly clear, although after the fact of course, that there was a trend in the market and a certainly place where price didn't go beyond (the support and resistance you pointed out earlier). Will super computers and AI not respect levels? Will they push prices through them? If this is the case, won't we now as human traders be able to get in on this game once we see excessive moves?

I understand that human traders working for firms might not be needed, or even humans that write code would also be out of a job, but a price chart will still be produced that shows the trades placed by AI and I fail to see how even if it looks different, human traders won't be able to participate. If the market like ES goes from 4000 to 3900 in the blink of an eye, and maybe back to 4000 again, won't we learn to just place limit orders at the extremes?

 

[Zwaen]

It's just a numbers game(duh). I suppose it comes down to how much you need to live on annually income-wise. If you're skilled enough to pull at least 10% from the market EVERY SINGLE YEAR,guaranteed, and you could "survive" on a Spartan annual income of 50k then you just need to maintain 500k buying power in your trading account.

It's the fluctuations in income stream what makes it more difficult. When you are employee your employer takes away this risk by providing a fixed (but offcourse lower overall) income stream. The difference is the risk-premium for the employer /risk-taker. Freelance is a form in between.

 

[Nobert]

I lost my job. Made it a lot easier. 14 years. I do not have to work again. Still I will not recommend it to my children. Why?

Look at the ChatGPT and ask yourself what trading bots can do a few years from now with numbers - the native language of computers. A Google founder is working on a super computer for trading that will make Jim Simons look like a below average student.

All the people on this board who talk about resistance levels, support levels and breakouts and relative strength etc. of super liquid instruments like ES. Pure gambling. Nothing to do with business.

We got like 25% of our GBP resting in banks & doing nothing. The real game is getting ones hands on it.

 

[tomkat22]

It's the fluctuations in income stream what makes it more difficult.

That's why I tried to highlight/emphasize MINIMUM 10% average pulled from the market. I realize that 10% number will fluctuate over say a 10 year span. (but it better not fluctuate too much to the downside)

 

[GoldDigger]

It's just a numbers game(duh). I suppose it comes down to how much you need to live on annually income-wise. If you're skilled enough to pull at least 10% from the market EVERY SINGLE YEAR,guaranteed, and you could "survive" on a Spartan annual income of 50k then you just need to maintain 500k buying power in your trading account.

It does not take $500K to generate $50K.
In a perfect world, it would be nice but
most people don't have accounts that
large.

For people starting with small accounts,
there is the magic of compounding.

 

[M.W.]

Which is why most can't make a living trading. Generating 20% for most is a pipe dream, but the anecdotal evidence of a person here or there making 50% every now and then surely pulls in all the lurkers...

It does not take $500K to generate $50K.
In a perfect world, it would be nice but
most people don't have accounts that
large.

For people starting with small accounts,
there is the magic of compounding.

 

[GoldDigger]

Which is why most can't make a living trading. Generating 20% for most is a pipe dream, but the anecdotal evidence of a person here or there making 50% every now and then surely pulls in all the lurkers...

It's a pipe dream because most people are
lazy, they are not going to be consistent,
they are not going to put in the work
required to be successful, and they will
ultimately give up and quit.

But if they would get busy, then they don't
need $500Ks to generate 50.