Quote from TSGannGalt:
6. When you have a system, ask "How vulnerable is this model?" If the specific "reason it has worked" can break down at any moment in the future, all the backtesting you've done is worthless. Typical one... Candlestick pattern based models, it can do the opposite anytime.
How would you determine, if a model can break down at any moment in the future? We all dont know the future, so..
Why do you think pattern based models do just that? Is this some sort of theoretical reasoning, or the results of the patterns you tested?