GM - what are the chances of bankruptcy?
- Thread starter chewbacca
- Start date
I made it easy for you guys. I ran a focused search of only one division of GM, Caddilac. From year 2000 to 2006 and a price tag of $2000 to $10,000 to filter out misprints because obviously anything with this kind of miles will be priced a bit below market. Also did the same for the entire company of Toyota. This resulted in 395 cars for Cadillac and for Toyota since I included the entire company rather than just one division it came out with 4599 cars. Obviously anyone who knows anything about odds would surmise that there should be a Toyota here with higher miles since the odds in numbers is more than 10 to 1. Well I searched all 4599 Toyotas and had a hard time even finding any over 200,000 miles. Meanwhile with only 395 cars available from Cadillac I found 276,000 miles and 258,000 miles. This is a totally unbiased test that actually tilts the odds greatly in the Toyotas favor and yet Cadillac won clearly. From this we can decide for ourselves that something happens to Toyotas when they reach 200,000 miles, they probably end up in the junkyard, or we can rationalize it and say that Toyota owners do not drive very much and therefore are talking out of their asses when saying they are durable because obviously they don't drive enough to know for sure. My guess is that Toyotas end up in the junkyard after 200,000 miles and that's why you will be hard pressed to find any in a selection of 4599 car search.
Cadillac
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/searc...el=&lang=en&pager.offset=200&first_record=201
Toyota
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/searc...&drive=&transmission=&doors=&color=&x=31&y=12
Cadillac with 276,000 miles
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.j...=200&engine=&lang=en&fuel=&doors=&cardist=479
Cadillac with 258,000 miles
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.j...200&engine=&lang=en&fuel=&doors=&cardist=1152
Cadillac
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/searc...el=&lang=en&pager.offset=200&first_record=201
Toyota
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/searc...&drive=&transmission=&doors=&color=&x=31&y=12
Cadillac with 276,000 miles
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.j...=200&engine=&lang=en&fuel=&doors=&cardist=479
Cadillac with 258,000 miles
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.j...200&engine=&lang=en&fuel=&doors=&cardist=1152
Actually I trade GM debt every day.
GM preferreds have been tracking GM common since last October...
So this "common before preferreds" disintegration happened 6-8 months ago.
A 5% yield spread is peanuts compared to the risk in such a position.
If you are not a very experienced pro in trading debt vs equity... this is not for you.
rm+
Delphi Asks Court to Void Union Contracts
Friday March 31, 1:16 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
Delphi Asks Court to Void Union Contracts; Ford, GM and Nissan Shares Slip in Afternoon Trading
DETROIT (AP) -- Auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. asked a federal bankruptcy court on Friday to void its labor contracts as part of a controversial restructuring that calls for layoffs of up to 8,500 salaried workers and the sale or closure of 21 of its 29 U.S. plants.
The moves carry huge risks: It may lead to a strike by unionized workers at Delphi that could cripple the U.S. auto industry and push General Motors Corp., its former parent and largest customer, closer to Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060331/delphi_unions.html?.v=20
Friday March 31, 1:16 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
Delphi Asks Court to Void Union Contracts; Ford, GM and Nissan Shares Slip in Afternoon Trading
DETROIT (AP) -- Auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. asked a federal bankruptcy court on Friday to void its labor contracts as part of a controversial restructuring that calls for layoffs of up to 8,500 salaried workers and the sale or closure of 21 of its 29 U.S. plants.
The moves carry huge risks: It may lead to a strike by unionized workers at Delphi that could cripple the U.S. auto industry and push General Motors Corp., its former parent and largest customer, closer to Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060331/delphi_unions.html?.v=20
You have a point there, but the results are nearly identical. I found 274,000 and 311,000 miles and quite a few in the low 200's.
http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.j...=900&engine=&fuel=&lang=en&doors=&cardist=410
GM, Ford Sales Down in March; Toyota Up
Monday April 3, 3:07 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
GM, Ford Sales Down in March; Toyota Surges 7 Percent
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. saw sales fall again last month despite some popular new models, while Toyota Motor Corp. reported a 7 percent increase over last March.
Automakers reported monthly sales figures Monday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060403/auto_sales.html?.v=4
Monday April 3, 3:07 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
GM, Ford Sales Down in March; Toyota Surges 7 Percent
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. saw sales fall again last month despite some popular new models, while Toyota Motor Corp. reported a 7 percent increase over last March.
Automakers reported monthly sales figures Monday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060403/auto_sales.html?.v=4
My parents got burned with many cars like Hyundai, Audi, VW, BMW, and myself I had a horrible experience with a 1997 BMW 740iL which I can explain in detail and can even take you the BMW message board I posted on back then. All my complaints and others are still there for viewing if you would like, just ask. Cars will be cars, they are not perfect but every GM vehicle I have had has been great and 3 of them I kept long enough to put over 300,000 miles. Trust me, nobody in the right mind would put that many miles on an unreliable car because it would cost them a fortune. Therefore they would sell the car as soon as it starts costing too much and this is the reason why some auto brands do not have many miles on them at autotrader.com. Just a note, the next generation is expected to have a lower standard of living then the last generation in the US. Keep buying your imports, you are doing wonders to the future generation in the US.