Global Macro Trading (runnermint)

Quote from Macro_Quant:



I was expecting them to remove QE slowly later that year, but I was a little surprised that they actually laid out their exact plan. What surprised me even more was the market's reaction yesterday and today, I can't believe how reliant they have become on the fed. It's ridiculous that the market's main driver for the last 4 years has basically been monetary policy.
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Which market are you referring to?
 
Quote from Visaria:

I'm far more interested in your value of x. Can you say what it is and why you chose it?
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hi visaria, thanks for the interest

x is 5. so it was half of 1% on that trade. the swissy, euro and nikkei trades were made on 4hour time frame and they were purely technical plays

there isn't any compelling reason why i chose 0.5%. it's more of i'm comfortable with these limits

i'll also just mention i risk 1% on daily timeframe and 2% on weekly timeframe. i add my realized profits to the overall 5% risk limits as well.

just for further clarification, i trade trends. trends that are developed by events/data/news on short to medium term basis. on top of that, i take note of what's happening to an economy cyclically and structurally on long term basis as a greater overlay. i classify both as fundamentals

for technicals, it's just price and moving average. no price patterns, trend lines, formations, etc for me. i tried them before but don't find them effective for me

for market tone, how the market is feeling it. is it feeling better or worse? with that said, sometimes i trade because the price and market tone say so. i don't necessarily wait for all 3 to align then i trigger. i'm certain you guys have experienced trades where the market was just feeling it but fundamentals seem to say otherwise

also, i'd scale in if all 3 factors are aligned. i do not scale in if they don't

runnermint
 
Quote from Macro_Quant:

What is your take on yesterday's fed meeting, runnermint?

I was expecting them to remove QE slowly later that year, but I was a little surprised that they actually laid out their exact plan. What surprised me even more was the market's reaction yesterday and today, I can't believe how reliant they have become on the fed. It's ridiculous that the market's main driver for the last 4 years has basically been monetary policy.
I went short government bond futures yesterday and expect yields to soar quite a bit over the remainder of this year. I was also tempted to short the S&P, but I have made bad experiences being short equity indices, the equity bulls will always come back after some time.
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i think more selling would ensue. i will try to put together some data analytics to have a clearer picture of what might happen ahead. will post them up soon

not sure if you watched this, where david einhorn made some points similar to what you mentioned.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcfgfjwwaPM

you went short on which bond ticker? i wanted to short the 2y futures but damn, i'm just too busy over last and this week that i hardly have time to track the markets

yea, i agree with you. there's this uncertainty about when the market would turn up
 
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