Global Macro Trading (runnermint)

Quote from Daal:

Nikkei actually looks like a potential multiday bouncer. I'm playing through EWJ
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hi daal, i think that's possible from a technical viewpoint. however, the reasons why i exit was because:

1. i won't be trading next week as i'll be away from my work desk and decided to close the position largely because of the reason below

2. if the market buys back QQE (quantitative & qualitative easing) after Abe discusses the specifics of his growth strategy and Kuroda working out plans for coordinated efforts with bond dealers, we'll see funds flowing back to Nikkei and Yen
 
holding on to the following 2 positions for 6/10/13 - 6/14/13:

short AUD
short USD

will be away from my desk for a week. will try to post market commentaries and observations as and when i can

runnermint
 
Quote from runnermint:

we learnt that the Federal Reserve has a 6.5% unemployment rate target to meet before it scales out the monthly bond-buying programme and that today's data has showed that the unemployment rate increased by 10 basis points to 7.6% for May. concretely, this implies the central bank will continue the bond purchases and some may start to expect a resumption of the liquidity-induced rally. however, there are two market observations that do not run in accordance what one would expect in a resumption
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Hey, I also trade global macro, mainly discretionary, but I use quantitative methods as well and I will try to follow this thread in the future.

In regards to the quoted part, you are actually mistaking something. The Fed will stop with its loose monetary policy once the unemployment rate has reached 6.5% ( which won't happen in the next 2 years imo), meaning that it will raise rates, but the QE program will definitely be ended prior to that. At this point I also believe that the current market worries about tapering are a little out of place, simply because inflation is low enough for the FED to continue expanding its balance sheet, but they might start tapering at the end of the year imo.
 
Hi macro quant,

Thanks for pointing that out, I realized the 6.5% is the benchmark for hiking fed funds rate and tapering will occur if economic data over the next 2 FOMC meetings support it. However, the jobs report last friday has somewhat created uncertainty.
 
my short AUD position broke even and i closed out the short USD position before market close last night. i do not have any outstanding positions at the moment and am looking forward for the next trading week!

runnermint
 
Quote from runnermint:

reduced exposure in long Nikkei by half
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stopped out of long Nikkei trade. overall, it was a good trade. i reduced exposure by half when the price went against my trade direction. i risked (0.x)% on this trade but lost approximately (0.x/2)% and it's good to know i cut my losses short. however, at this point in time, i'm not sure if the market wants to resume its rally in the Nikkei index. this long trade was initiated due to the way i interpreted the market sentiment.

when i looked at the futures charts of rates, currencies and indices of the G3 economies and the price action seemed to reflect a possible resumption of market movements prior to JGB bond market volatility and the weakness in USD due to poor ISM data and uncertainty in jobs report in the last 3 weeks. moreover, Nikkei is currently hovering the 12500(+-) support level and the market is perhaps waiting for more confirmations coming from G8 summit and/or Bernanke's FOMC this week. i believe a market vote is just round the corner and perhaps, i shouldn't have traded that early in the Nikkei and/or shouldn't have put on a trade with a tight stop point

runnermint
 
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