Global Macro Trading (runnermint)

R

runnermint

Hi all, I will be starting this global macro trading journal, which would involve trading futures in major market indices, rates, currencies and commodities. In the future, I will express some of trades using options but only after I have finished reading up and have a better understanding of these financial instruments. I do believe expressing trades through options have the great potential to achieve asymmetric risk-reward.

I am a discretionary trader who trades based on fundamentals and technicals. I form short-, medium-, and long-term views, of which, I may trade on them across different time frames. For technicals, I use them to pin-point my entry price and stop loss level. I try to utilize stop-trailing to take profit otherwise it would be completely up to my discretion as to when I would close my position.

Other points worth taking note and also to serve as reminders for myself:

- A position is sized according to how much I allocate to the trade

- I practice scaling out if and only if price goes against my position. I do not scale out when price runs in my direction

- I do not rely on portfolio optimization. However, for every trading week (5 days), my maximum risk limit is 5% of my trading capital

- I trade solely 4-hourly, daily, weekly and monthly. Positions can be held and closed within hours or up to 2-3 months

- I will add market commentary and views (short, medium and long) to this journal as often as possible

runnermint
6/1/13
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Interesting - what fundamentals make you bearish on the Nikkei, or is it purely a technical trade?
More...

Hi ghost,

this was a trade taken based on both fundamental and technical premises.

fundamentally,

market participants put their cash to work in the nikkei and fed on liquidity-induced optimism (since shinzo abe's return to political power and kuroda's easy monetary policies) that brought the index to a high of 16000ish two weeks ago. a slight uncertainty in sentiments and market tone would inevitably cause selling in the index.

as such, the recent upwards movement across JGB's yield curve brought on volatility in the markets. this runs counter to what kuroda ideally seeks to achieve. moreover, the recent news of increasing frequency for monthly bond-buying helped little to calm market nerves and this observation makes selling nikkei an even more plausible hypothesis.

concretely, this brought me to the thinking that perhaps, bond vigilantes are trading against the 'kuroda shock', which is providing a drag on the JGB market

if we move over to the fed, bernanke's recent comments about 'excessive risk-taking' and the tapering off of qe3, has brought on additional volatility to the market

this is a short-term play. my sense is that major market indices would continue to post new highs as i believe the targets set by various major central banks are highly credible. furthermore, the current global economy still remains on unstable footing and it'll probably take a couple more months (within second half of 2013) or 1-2 years' time before central bankers discuss their exit strategies

technically,

i trade based on price action and by looking at price charts, i try to get some sense of market psychology and see if it sits well with the fundamental picture. occasionally, i'd put on moving averages to see where the market might be heading to (from a technical view point)

as for this trade, the recent buying that took place on mon - tues, lacked of strength (as evidenced by the few 'up' bars on the 4H time frame) and that was when i thought a short trade is becoming viable

runnermint
 
Markets that I'm focusing this week (6/3/13 - 6/7/13):

nikkei
yen
us dollar
euro
pound
aussie dollar
us treasuries
crude
nat gas
chinese yuan
copper
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Nikkei short is looking good - it may even be close to a crash/capitulation in that market.
More...

Hi ghost,

What's your take on nikkei?

runnermint
 
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