Global Macro Trading Journal

All Sectors Debt Securities and Loans as a % of Nominal GDP in the US (I think that is the same as the Total Credit Market debt as a % of GDP charts)

upload_2021-6-30_10-43-22.png


The 'beautiful' deleveraging from 2008 to 2019 was interrupted by Covid sending it to higher levels than ever before
 
Daal said:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ark-funds-are-offloading-their-exposure-china-based-equities

I cant help but to wonder if this will mark the bottom on China tech, the Wood bottom

big.chart
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Trend plus cycle fitting of KWEB (KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) for the four months of close prices as of yesterday agrees.
upload_2021-7-14_15-22-25.png

+ signs are close prices for 123 calendar days 20210313 through 20210713 adjusted for dividends and splits and interpolated when the market was closed.
smooth curve is the parabolic trend projected forward 31 calendar days.
wavy curve is the parabolic trend plus three cosine waves fitted to the close prices projected forward 31 calendar days.

example of fitted function:
Code: 
y = 82.725700378418  -  0.229728266596794 * x  +  0.000808047945611179 * x * x
    +  1.76418054103851 * cos(twopi / 45.8431720661662 * x  +  0.275005102157593)
    +  1.62566304206848 * cos(twopi / 20.6373785145359 * x  +  4.84719324111938)
    +  1.51178658008575 * cos(twopi / 27.332784565401 * x  +  1.16346621513367) ;
y is the predicted price.
x is the number of calendar days past 20210313

Data and the function detrended:
upload_2021-7-14_15-29-13.png
 
Daal said:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ark-funds-are-offloading-their-exposure-china-based-equities

I cant help but to wonder if this will mark the bottom on China tech, the Wood bottom
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Perhaps but it feels early to me, and that risks are still building. The bear cycle has so far just been corrective of the huge 3/2020 - 2/2021 rally, but the new much greater degree of interference and determination to bring the tech moguls under control is a major regime shift for the CCP. In several cases it's attacking the foundation of these companies' business plans, and even the VIE mechanism of foreign ownership may be coming under threat. If I were a value guy I'd be pricing out these companies, but I'd be surprised if the valuation was attractive enough to compensate for all the new risks.
 
upload_2021-7-15_10-48-23.png


upload_2021-7-15_10-48-49.png


Looks pretty discounted to me. Also, as a rule in exponential investments, I find it better to be too early than to be too late
 
Added to PSTH pre market around 20.7xish. Ackman didnt get his deal in the SPAC but now the SPAC has 18 months to find another deal. I figure, at some point this will pump again and I can sell these buys at a profit. Maybe at around $22. It reached $30 on pure hype earlier this year
Worse case I opt out of a new deal and get $20 a share in cash back
 
Daal said:
Added to PSTH pre market around 20.7xish. Ackman didnt get his deal in the SPAC but now the SPAC has 18 months to find another deal. I figure, at some point this will pump again and I can sell these buys at a profit. Maybe at around $22. It reached $30 on pure hype earlier this year
Worse case I opt out of a new deal and get $20 a share in cash back
More...
PSTH shares are now back at being effectively a $20 cash shell + a 18 month call option. I think 70 cents is a little to cheap of a call option, especially given Ackman's record, pumping skills and the fact that this call was worth $10 a one point. So maybe I can sell these 70 cent "calls" for $2 or $3.
 
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