Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-sudden-selloff-answer-lies-georgia
Odds of a blue wave are rising
Odds of a blue wave are rising
Finished my return accounting for 2020, the net result was a gain of 19.8%. The main drivers were:
The main things I got right was buying China when covid hit (I called it the last great opportunity to buy China, I was right), sticking with crypto despite the covid carnage (in hindsight, I should have bought more), buying US stocks during the panic. Buying JOE and HHC months after the market bottom, even though I'm not bullish US equities
The things I got wrong are just too numerous to count. I didnt react to the pandemic fast enough. I didnt stablish SPY put hedges during the down move even though there was PLENTY of time to buy puts or short outright. I failed to sell CRESY and GREK on the way down even though I was bearish on them (I kept waiting for a bounce that never came). I was a bit too aggressive on my spy shorting when markets bounced big (but at least I gave up on it after a while). I sold my Pershing Square Holdings too soon, it almost doubled since then (I'm just super strategically bearish US equities and I couldn't justify owning an US equity fund after the 1.5/16% fees kicked back in as Ackman went over his high water mark). Overall, its not too bad of a year given that at the lows of the market I was down ~14%. And my returns would have been higher had I considered GBTC part of my macro trading, but I had in under my short-term trading account so I counted it as a swing trading, my short-term accounts returned 7.2% last year. I quit very short-term trading in May of last year, so from now on I will count everything in my returns.
I'm looking forward to this new year, I think crypto might go completely ballistic, Fannie could soar and the dollar could implode if the Blue Wave materialize. We will see
The main things I got right was buying China when covid hit (I called it the last great opportunity to buy China, I was right), sticking with crypto despite the covid carnage (in hindsight, I should have bought more), buying US stocks during the panic. Buying JOE and HHC months after the market bottom, even though I'm not bullish US equities
The things I got wrong are just too numerous to count. I didnt react to the pandemic fast enough. I didnt stablish SPY put hedges during the down move even though there was PLENTY of time to buy puts or short outright. I failed to sell CRESY and GREK on the way down even though I was bearish on them (I kept waiting for a bounce that never came). I was a bit too aggressive on my spy shorting when markets bounced big (but at least I gave up on it after a while). I sold my Pershing Square Holdings too soon, it almost doubled since then (I'm just super strategically bearish US equities and I couldn't justify owning an US equity fund after the 1.5/16% fees kicked back in as Ackman went over his high water mark). Overall, its not too bad of a year given that at the lows of the market I was down ~14%. And my returns would have been higher had I considered GBTC part of my macro trading, but I had in under my short-term trading account so I counted it as a swing trading, my short-term accounts returned 7.2% last year. I quit very short-term trading in May of last year, so from now on I will count everything in my returns.
I'm looking forward to this new year, I think crypto might go completely ballistic, Fannie could soar and the dollar could implode if the Blue Wave materialize. We will see
As far as a comparisson with my 'benchmark', the Dalio All-Seasons portfolio, I was able to beat it last year
I no longer consider this an appropriate benchmark because its just too damn long of bonds. Which I consider very dangerous. I'm not sure what I will use as benchmark, maybe just an absolute return benchmark is better. So 12% a year with resonable drawdowns (say median drawdowns of -10% and a max drawdown limit of 20-30%)
I no longer consider this an appropriate benchmark because its just too damn long of bonds. Which I consider very dangerous. I'm not sure what I will use as benchmark, maybe just an absolute return benchmark is better. So 12% a year with resonable drawdowns (say median drawdowns of -10% and a max drawdown limit of 20-30%)
Attachments
So I did stake most of my ETH on ETH2.0 deposit contract using a service. I (and only I) have access to the withdraw keys. The service does have the validator keys (as I do), this creates one risk which is the risk that a hacker would get a hold of the validator keys by hacking the service, and then start to behave maliciously in order to generate slashing punishments. If he continues this could lead to a loss of half of the ETH staked. So its a risk but I believe its a risk worth taking because if that process starts I can ask for my validator to be removed from Eth2 validator system. This would stop the punishments (but also the staking reward) and my eth will be illiquid until Phase 2, which I'm fine with.
So I will get paid something like 10% a year and be prevented from doing something stupid, like selling too much too soon. And, even better, the ETH will become liquid if/when ETH 2.0 succeeds in its developments. So in a way is similar to investing in a mid stage start-up and then getting liquidity at the IPO. If ETH 2 suceeds the price is likely to be many many multiples from the current price. If it fails, all ETH holders are going to get creamed, no matter if they staked or not
GLXY is a great example of the value of this. I was long from 1.08 CAD, now the stock trades at 12 CAD. a twelve bagger but I sold too much at 2/3/4/5 as a result I ruined what could have been a home run investment.
Through my BTC blockchain lock and ETH staking (while holding the keys) I just guaranteed this will not happen with my crypto
So I will get paid something like 10% a year and be prevented from doing something stupid, like selling too much too soon. And, even better, the ETH will become liquid if/when ETH 2.0 succeeds in its developments. So in a way is similar to investing in a mid stage start-up and then getting liquidity at the IPO. If ETH 2 suceeds the price is likely to be many many multiples from the current price. If it fails, all ETH holders are going to get creamed, no matter if they staked or not
GLXY is a great example of the value of this. I was long from 1.08 CAD, now the stock trades at 12 CAD. a twelve bagger but I sold too much at 2/3/4/5 as a result I ruined what could have been a home run investment.
Through my BTC blockchain lock and ETH staking (while holding the keys) I just guaranteed this will not happen with my crypto
IMO a big reason why some VC/angel investors and startup founders are so rich is the fact that they CANNOT sell for long periods of time. If they could I bet a lot of them would screw-up and sell too much, maybe all. Real-time quotes and daily liquidity is like kryptonite to good patience
Here is a lesson that took me a long-time to learn: The vast majority of well known investing personalities (that ones that get asked to be on Bloomberg, CNBC and whose articles get spread around on the internet) are well known, not because they know what they are talking about, because they are knowledgeable and great risk managers or even decent traders and investors. No, that's not the reason they are there. The vast majority of them are there because they are SPEAK and/or WRITE well! That's it.
When I look at the vast majority of finance gurus and crypto gurus, I can only laugh at their methodologies, its just damn right pathetic. It might sound arrogant to say but I learned this lesson well over my career as a trader
I met so many pretty darn good traders, better than me, and these people would NEVER be on bloomberg/cnbc and they would never write pieces that would show up on Zerohedge. Why? They are mostly technical people, introverted types, shy, non-charismatic or poor writers. They would sink ratings with their technical explanations, their articles would be too technical to the average joe. They simply dont have the time or the inclination to work in these secondary skills.
Most hedge fund managers are like that. What is the number one skill a hedge fund manager needs? Investing and trading skill? No. The ability to raise capital, that's what it takes to be a HF manager. As a result, it tends to attract persuasive people that speak well. They can convince you of a lot of things, that does not necessarely mean they know nothing about what they are talking about, only that they can convince you that they do.
You look at the investing methodology of David Einhorn its just downright ridiculous, its just so super bad its a joke. It makes you wonder how he got so big, well, he is this soft spoken nice looking guy and he can convince you of things. Next thing you know he was managing billions
Every year that passes I try to pay attention less and less to investing/trading calls from people, because, as arrogant as it sounds, I just dont respect them as investors/traders to even care what they think. I try to read news and data, not opinions. There are some exceptions but they are few and far between. 99% of what is out there is completely worthless
When I look at the vast majority of finance gurus and crypto gurus, I can only laugh at their methodologies, its just damn right pathetic. It might sound arrogant to say but I learned this lesson well over my career as a trader
I met so many pretty darn good traders, better than me, and these people would NEVER be on bloomberg/cnbc and they would never write pieces that would show up on Zerohedge. Why? They are mostly technical people, introverted types, shy, non-charismatic or poor writers. They would sink ratings with their technical explanations, their articles would be too technical to the average joe. They simply dont have the time or the inclination to work in these secondary skills.
Most hedge fund managers are like that. What is the number one skill a hedge fund manager needs? Investing and trading skill? No. The ability to raise capital, that's what it takes to be a HF manager. As a result, it tends to attract persuasive people that speak well. They can convince you of a lot of things, that does not necessarely mean they know nothing about what they are talking about, only that they can convince you that they do.
You look at the investing methodology of David Einhorn its just downright ridiculous, its just so super bad its a joke. It makes you wonder how he got so big, well, he is this soft spoken nice looking guy and he can convince you of things. Next thing you know he was managing billions
Every year that passes I try to pay attention less and less to investing/trading calls from people, because, as arrogant as it sounds, I just dont respect them as investors/traders to even care what they think. I try to read news and data, not opinions. There are some exceptions but they are few and far between. 99% of what is out there is completely worthless