Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
@Daal - are you considering any major changes to your portfolio stance given the events of the past few weeks? IMO the failure of US stocks to make new highs on the Fed cut, the string of recent failed IPOs, coupled with the shock negative ISM print, is as close as they come to ringing a bell at the top. Seems like we might be on the verge of a global coordinated bear market for the first time in a decade.
Very hard for me to find time these days to devote to macro, but one thing I'm looking at are banks/developers exposed to the high-end luxury condo markets in NYC and especially Miami - been hearing recently that those markets have essentially gone bidless.
One thing I'd like to play as well is the VC unicorn blowup, but not quite sure how to do that beyond shorting Softbank.
Very hard for me to find time these days to devote to macro, but one thing I'm looking at are banks/developers exposed to the high-end luxury condo markets in NYC and especially Miami - been hearing recently that those markets have essentially gone bidless.
One thing I'd like to play as well is the VC unicorn blowup, but not quite sure how to do that beyond shorting Softbank.
Hey
I put a small short today on SPY to hedge some of my exposures (and of course, the market went straight up right after it), I also trimmed some BRKB yesterday. But I havent sold it all yet, lots of my stocks are micro stories (like FNMA preferred) that shouldnt be very affected by a small recession. If shit hits the fan then it would be a different story but it doesnt seem likely as of yet. But yeah, it does feel different this time. That we could be in for a 2016 repeat at the very least
I put a small short today on SPY to hedge some of my exposures (and of course, the market went straight up right after it), I also trimmed some BRKB yesterday. But I havent sold it all yet, lots of my stocks are micro stories (like FNMA preferred) that shouldnt be very affected by a small recession. If shit hits the fan then it would be a different story but it doesnt seem likely as of yet. But yeah, it does feel different this time. That we could be in for a 2016 repeat at the very least
"As a result of this dynamic, the prices of financial assets have gone way up and the future expected returns have gone way down while economic growth and inflation remain sluggish. Those big price rises and the resulting low expected returns are not just true for bonds; they are equally true for equities, private equity, and venture capital, though these assets’ low expected returns are not as apparent as they are for bond investments because these equity-like investments don’t have stated returns the way bonds do. As a result, their expected returns are left to investors’ imaginations. Because investors have so much money to invest and because of past success stories of stocks of revolutionary technology companies doing so well, more companies than at any time since the dot-com bubble don’t have to make profits or even have clear paths to making profits to sell their stock because they can instead sell their dreams to those investors who are flush with money and borrowing power"
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio/
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio/
Would your view change if a Democrat candidate won the 2020 election?
The whole 'the yield curve has inverted, its time to sell everything' thesis some people seem to use is so ridiculous. The last 2 times the yield curve inverted, stocks went on to rise over 50% and 20% respectively (1998 and 2006) before the market peaked.
Furthermore, now the Fed has cut rates, the yield curve has disinverted. Are these investors buying back what they sold? If so, they got to consider the splippage of their strategy (they probably lost 200 SPX points in missed profits, plus the taxes they had to pay on gains).
If they do not buy back, when will they? Lets say this markets keep grinding all the way to 3400. At that point they would have lost 600 SPX points in missed profits. This is similar to a short position without a stop loss
This is the difference between silly journalist logic and real world investing. In the real world you get punished by silly strategies, but commentators, writers and bloggers can scare the public with their crap strategies and nothing ever happens to them
This is a big reason why I believe what people DO means a million times for than what they SAY. I bet some of these yield curve scaremongers, never sold any significant amount of stock (and if they did, they rebought some of it) despite their tone. And if they sold it all, they probably did years ago and now they are just crying from the sidelines because they want a chance to get back in
Furthermore, now the Fed has cut rates, the yield curve has disinverted. Are these investors buying back what they sold? If so, they got to consider the splippage of their strategy (they probably lost 200 SPX points in missed profits, plus the taxes they had to pay on gains).
If they do not buy back, when will they? Lets say this markets keep grinding all the way to 3400. At that point they would have lost 600 SPX points in missed profits. This is similar to a short position without a stop loss
This is the difference between silly journalist logic and real world investing. In the real world you get punished by silly strategies, but commentators, writers and bloggers can scare the public with their crap strategies and nothing ever happens to them
This is a big reason why I believe what people DO means a million times for than what they SAY. I bet some of these yield curve scaremongers, never sold any significant amount of stock (and if they did, they rebought some of it) despite their tone. And if they sold it all, they probably did years ago and now they are just crying from the sidelines because they want a chance to get back in
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If its Warren or Sanders, it would be pretty bad for the GSEs. But I expect Trump and co to do the bulk of what they need to do before the election and shortly after. If they sign a settlement for some of the suits, that cannot be undone by another president, because it would be binding in a court of law. Of course, someone like Warren could still try to mess things up but I'm expecting a Trump or Bloomberg or Biden victory. Plus there is the chance Warren wins but she is unable to do much about what Trump did with the GSEs (without breaking major laws)