Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
What?
You get on my ignore right away. What a fuxxing nutcase. Why are there so many deranged people here? ET, the soup kitchen of the desperate perhaps?
You get on my ignore right away. What a fuxxing nutcase. Why are there so many deranged people here? ET, the soup kitchen of the desperate perhaps?
Thank you, I appreciate that
Absolutely. I wrote about this before, if bears who calls things 'bubbles' kept P&L tab on a hypotetical short positions in these supposed bubbles they would discover
-That P&L is massively negative
-Some of these bubbles turn out not to be bubbles years and years later
Roubini is a guy who talks his mouth off but has no skin in the game, do you most know that he is 100% invested in stocks? Look it up, that's how he manages his money. I recall reading that. He will induce millions of people to sell by calling recessions and crisis but he only adds to his stock portfolio.
What people say doesnt mean anything, what matters is what people do. Until he goes short BTC it means he thinks it can go to the moon just like a millenium idiot
Yeah, I have no idea if BTC will work out long-term and I dont care. Its a beautiful story, it captures people emotional brain like nothing else, combine that with the whole 'hodl' mentality and history of appreciation (and all the gag to riches story) this is a perfect market to go absolutely ballistic. We are already 3.5x from the lows and mainstream havent even gone crazy yet, libra is not even out yet
With all that said, it IS possible that the market is deciding that bitcoin IS an alternative to gold, a younger brother if you will. Digital gold like Novogratz says, if that is the case, how would things look like? You would see it rising in price, more and more people keeping their money in it, it would rise in popularity, etc etc. Which is exactly what is happening.
Dalio is wrong when he says BTC doesnt have the traits of a store of value, he is thinking in terms of a MATURE store of value, in that case you do need price stability. But if someone found a better metal tomorrow that is vastly superior to gold, it wouldn't instantly be valued at $9T worldwise, it would have a adoption period where its value would be volatile but there would be a uptrend until it reached the trillions area. That's what is happening to BTC.
Now, i dont know if that will happen to BTC, nor do I care, I will be out at the next peak and reasses during the next collapse. I will go cycle by cycle
Dalio is wrong when he says BTC doesnt have the traits of a store of value, he is thinking in terms of a MATURE store of value, in that case you do need price stability. But if someone found a better metal tomorrow that is vastly superior to gold, it wouldn't instantly be valued at $9T worldwise, it would have a adoption period where its value would be volatile but there would be a uptrend until it reached the trillions area. That's what is happening to BTC.
Now, i dont know if that will happen to BTC, nor do I care, I will be out at the next peak and reasses during the next collapse. I will go cycle by cycle
There is a word for people like Roubini and that is hypocrite
"We'll admit to being a bit perplexed at Nouriel Roubini's personal investment strategy and how it compares to the advice he gives on the pages of his RGE Monitor. Last we heard, Dr. Doom was 100% long, and invested in index funds. That was apparently true as recently as February, when it was reported in the Financial Times." - Bussines Insider March 19 2009
https://www.businessinsider.com/100-long-roubini-says-rally-is-a-dead-cat-bounce-2009-3
I even dubbed this strategy the "Roubini barbell". There is the Taleb barbell which is go keep 80-90% of your wealth in safe assets (say developed market gov bonds, plus some gold) and 10-20% in extremely risky assets, like startups, or tech stocks. The idea is that by mixing high risk with safety you are balanced.
The Roubini barbell works as follows, go long a risky market (say equities) then make a CAREER based on bashing that market. If that market soars, you make a fortune off your investments, but your career will struggle. If the market collapses, you career will skyrocket but your portfolio will struggle. So its a HEDGE, you get rich either way.
A lot of people behave like that, they will talk in opposite ways that they are positioned to HEDGE. To me its completetly unethical to do that
A smaller version of that, but that drives me crazy, is when people talk with authority and conviction but they do not have that same conviction in POSITIONING their portfolio. If someone is utterly convinced BTC is worthless, they need to be short. If they are not doing that in their trading account, they need to TONE DOWN their conviction.
What all these people have in common is the lack of integrity, how they present themselves to the real world is not how they really are. You can probably count in your hands how many financial 'gurus' you will see that have true integrity not to do those things. The more 'macho' a guru sounds, the more likely he is engaging in this misleading sort of behavior
When you listen to people without integrity, dont be surprised if they mislead you.
"We'll admit to being a bit perplexed at Nouriel Roubini's personal investment strategy and how it compares to the advice he gives on the pages of his RGE Monitor. Last we heard, Dr. Doom was 100% long, and invested in index funds. That was apparently true as recently as February, when it was reported in the Financial Times." - Bussines Insider March 19 2009
https://www.businessinsider.com/100-long-roubini-says-rally-is-a-dead-cat-bounce-2009-3
I even dubbed this strategy the "Roubini barbell". There is the Taleb barbell which is go keep 80-90% of your wealth in safe assets (say developed market gov bonds, plus some gold) and 10-20% in extremely risky assets, like startups, or tech stocks. The idea is that by mixing high risk with safety you are balanced.
The Roubini barbell works as follows, go long a risky market (say equities) then make a CAREER based on bashing that market. If that market soars, you make a fortune off your investments, but your career will struggle. If the market collapses, you career will skyrocket but your portfolio will struggle. So its a HEDGE, you get rich either way.
A lot of people behave like that, they will talk in opposite ways that they are positioned to HEDGE. To me its completetly unethical to do that
A smaller version of that, but that drives me crazy, is when people talk with authority and conviction but they do not have that same conviction in POSITIONING their portfolio. If someone is utterly convinced BTC is worthless, they need to be short. If they are not doing that in their trading account, they need to TONE DOWN their conviction.
What all these people have in common is the lack of integrity, how they present themselves to the real world is not how they really are. You can probably count in your hands how many financial 'gurus' you will see that have true integrity not to do those things. The more 'macho' a guru sounds, the more likely he is engaging in this misleading sort of behavior
When you listen to people without integrity, dont be surprised if they mislead you.
That was funny.