Global Macro Trading Journal

I was doing a google search on skycoin and it produced a result way back on page 734 of your journal where you had mentioned it. I was curious what your current thinking is around the potential of this platform, especially now in retrospect of the ico mania and current bear market in crypto's.

Pardon if this comment is taking the current discussion off track, you can DM me to keep the continuity of your journal intact.

Cheers!
 
Sprout said:
I was doing a google search on skycoin and it produced a result way back on page 734 of your journal where you had mentioned it. I was curious what your current thinking is around the potential of this platform, especially now in retrospect of the ico mania and current bear market in crypto's.

Pardon if this comment is taking the current discussion off track, you can DM me to keep the continuity of your journal intact.

Cheers!
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Hey, I gave up on trying to find special coins because the adverse selection was just too great in these ICOs and alt universe. Its probably less bad now because the market has been cleansed but with BTC down so much, it just seems a lot easier to buy more BTC (if I want to increase my crypto risk). I mean, sure Skycoin or any other tiny coin might offer a lot more potential but they also offer a lot more risk. Instead of buying them I can just buy MORE BTC relative to the alt.
Ex:
If an investor wants to invest 0.5% in Skycoin, they can just buy 1% or 1.5% in BTC instead. This should offer a similar risk-reward profile but with a lot better liquidity, much easier analysis (its hard to understand what a lot of ICOs are doing), less time wasted etc.
 
Daal said:
Hey, I gave up on trying to find special coins because the adverse selection was just too great in these ICOs and alt universe. Its probably less bad now because the market has been cleansed but with BTC down so much, it just seems a lot easier to buy more BTC (if I want to increase my crypto risk). I mean, sure Skycoin or any other tiny coin might offer a lot more potential but they also offer a lot more risk. Instead of buying them I can just buy MORE BTC relative to the alt.
Ex:
If an investor wants to invest 0.5% in Skycoin, they can just buy 1% or 1.5% in BTC instead. This should offer a similar risk-reward profile but with a lot better liquidity, much easier analysis (its hard to understand what a lot of ICOs are doing), less time wasted etc.
More...

Lumping Skycoin into other ICO’s is not like to like. It’s also structural different than BTC and addresses BTC’s fundamental flaws.

Listening to some of the main developer’s interviews on YouTube about SKY is quite informative of the entire space, it’s inherent limitations and where the tech is going from here.

I’m just now forming an informed opinion on the subject with my first pass at evaluating offerings in the field by
1) Is it a blockchain platform or is it a blockchain company?
2) by the profile of the development teams and the growth or non-growth of tech development during this crypto bear market.

It filter’s a lot of the noise.
 
tsznecki said:
I think you are making a sub optimal decision derisking and here's why: You are selling into a rally from lows when you could have sold highs earlier by a few months.

What if the recent rally didn't happen? That would be weakness in the market and you could be making a smart decision by derisking. But since the market rallied strongly, it's an indication of strength.

It's not a rational decision if you are seeing strength and still derisking. If you truly believe in your positions, you should be adding to them.

Not a criticism, just an observation.
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I would say that if you're managing a long-term portfolio and see the risk of a bear market but still want to ride the bull for as long as possible, looking to sell the relief rally after the first major selloff (however you technically define "major") is a fine strategy. The bear market obviously can't have started until you see a major selloff, thus waiting for one greatly reduces your risk of being ludicrously early. On the other hand, every major bear market in modern times offered a clear chance to sell after the first leg down, for only modest losses compared to nailing the exact top. Either way it beats panicking out at the lows with the herd.

Of course one does need a plan to re-establish risk if the whole thing turns out to be just a large correction.
 
Sprout said:
Listening to some of the main developer’s interviews on YouTube about SKY is quite informative of the entire space
More...
The people behind a coin have a inherent interest in giving a distorted, glass half full view of the whole thing. When you combine that with the adverse selection of the market, and lack of subcommunications that come from a personal meeting, its really dangerous to do due dilligence based on YT interviews. Furthermore, if you look at the great VCs, they reject 95%-99% of investment ideas and then personally talk with the founders and do weeks of due dilligence before they invest. Those things are hard to do with coins these days (unless you are Sequoia). For those reasons, I rather 'lever' up on BTC or ETH (by owning more vs the alts) than to buy alt coins or ICOs.
But another alternative, which I did, was to buy Galaxy Digital stock. They are buying common, preferred stock, debt instruments, coins and tokens in the entire space. They will have access to special deals, meetings and opportunities that I dont. If a couple of their investments turn out to be big hits, that alone can make my investment give me a very good return. If there is another crypto bubble, then I make money as well. Two ways to win
 
Ackman is up 24% YTD and started a dividend to PSH shareholders. If FNMA goes the way I think it can go (a settlement with shareholders to clear the way for private recapitalization) he might have a monster year
 
According to some research that I read, the CAPE ratio will fall bellow its 25 year average by the end of this year as a result of Earnings growth and the bad earnings from the 2008 crisis that will be removed from the calculation (they use a 10y avg earnings figure). The whole CAPE thing is a joke
 
CAPE is a slow and long term smoothed measure so not particularly precise or tactical. 2008 should already be dropped with latest decade being 2009-2018. 25 year average of CAPE is pretty much the internet era where valuations overall have elevated upwards. This may be a permanent structural shift due to a variety of factors such as more knowledge based enterprises rather than the capital intensive enterprises more common in the industrial era. Other impacts could be persistently low and falling interest rates accompanying a 40 year bond bull market, increasing monetary interventions by central banks, growing global prosperity, lessening large scale conflicts, etc. Like any measure referenced against history, we have to ask, how has the world changed over time and what does it mean for this measure?
 
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