What is interesting is that some people like Chris Sacca (a VC with a great track record) makes it part of his investment criteria to ONLY invest in startups lead by people that have lived abroad for a certain period. I can see why he would do that, at least partially. I believe that if someone lives their whole life in the same place, its like living inside a box. There is only so much one can learn from books and the internet, most of communication (and I believe, learning) comes from suttle things, subcommunications, implicit facts that cant be captured in words, timing, silence, etc. Reading about a war will never be being in a war. People with those experiences abroad could have little advantages against those without, simply because they know more about people, themselves, dont think inside a box, etc etc
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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What is interesting is that some people like Chris Sacca (a VC with a great track record) makes it part of his investment criteria to ONLY invest in startups lead by people that have lived abroad for a certain period. I can see why he would do that, at least partially. I believe that if someone lives their whole life in the same place, its like living inside a box. There is only so much one can learn from books and the internet, most of communication (and I believe, learning) comes from suttle things, subcommunications, implicit facts that cant be captured in words, timing, silence, etc. Reading about a war will never be being in a war. People with those experiences abroad could have little advantages against those without, simply because they know more about people, themselves, dont think inside a box, etc etc
For americans its pretty much a nobrainer for the young people to consider graduating from a college overseas rather than in the US. Not only will they save a massive amount of money (avoiding being stuck with debt for years) but they will also accumulate a lot of lessons, learnings and knowledge that they would otherwise never have
I don't know how to define "rude" between HK and Mainland China. From my experience, I think people in Mainland China are nice, at least I did not feel anything bad in China.
I only trust my eyes and feelings, because I think many medias or people are bias now. I would recommend you to visit Mainland China someday.
You are from Palo Alto, CA right? Maybe thats why. I would recommend you visit a small town in Brazil, especially in the state of Minas Gerais or Bahia. That should demonstrate to you why I felt that way (also locals also told me that mainlanders are even ruder than them)
Yes, you are right. I will visit a small town in Brazil someday.
I do not think they are rude, I want to say even in developed countries, like US, there are still many rude or bad people, but I will not say people in US are rude or bad.
Novogratz on Crypto valuation:
“[Cryptocurrency] is a global revolution. The internet bubble was only a US thing. It was rich US people participating. [Cryptocurrency] is global. There are kids in Bangladesh buying coins. It is monstrous in Tokyo, in South Korea, in China, in India, and in Russia. We’ve got a global market and a global mania. This will feel like a bubble when we’re at $20 trillion,” said Novogratz.
I agree, I made the same point last year
“It won’t go there ($20 trillion) right away. What is going to happen is, one of these intrepid pension funds, somebody who is a market leader, is going to say, you know what? We’ve got custody, Goldman Sachs is involved, Bloomberg has an index I can track my performance against, and they’re going to buy. And all of the sudden, the second guy buys. The same FOMO that you saw in retail [will be demonstrated by institutional investors],” explained Novogratz.
https://www.ccn.com/cryptocurrency-will-become-a-20-trillion-market-billionaire-bull-mike-novogratz/
I like BTC as a speculative play even if that thesis will be right a small percentage of the time. I happen to think it should be right about 50% of the time
“[Cryptocurrency] is a global revolution. The internet bubble was only a US thing. It was rich US people participating. [Cryptocurrency] is global. There are kids in Bangladesh buying coins. It is monstrous in Tokyo, in South Korea, in China, in India, and in Russia. We’ve got a global market and a global mania. This will feel like a bubble when we’re at $20 trillion,” said Novogratz.
I agree, I made the same point last year
“It won’t go there ($20 trillion) right away. What is going to happen is, one of these intrepid pension funds, somebody who is a market leader, is going to say, you know what? We’ve got custody, Goldman Sachs is involved, Bloomberg has an index I can track my performance against, and they’re going to buy. And all of the sudden, the second guy buys. The same FOMO that you saw in retail [will be demonstrated by institutional investors],” explained Novogratz.
https://www.ccn.com/cryptocurrency-will-become-a-20-trillion-market-billionaire-bull-mike-novogratz/
I like BTC as a speculative play even if that thesis will be right a small percentage of the time. I happen to think it should be right about 50% of the time
For the life of me, I can’t see any value in any of the cryto’s until volatility reaches that of ordinary currencies. No one is going to buy bread with a highly volatile crypto currency. And once the volatility drops to nothing, who is going to want to trade it? Be thankful you had a few years of trading it, because bitcoin (and etherium and all the other tradable cryptos) will probably end up worthless. Hodl on.
Were you at the event? I posted a pic on another thread. Novogratz is a very compelling speaker in person. Funny, quick on his feet.
So Brazil is in quite a bit of trouble since the panic fuels higher interest rates (and higher inflation) and that makes the fiscal problems worse, which leads to higher interest rates, etc. Its a Soros downward spiral. But its tricky to say that this means the stock market is a sell. I was fortunate to have reduced my position when I could (above $40s) but I still held 50-60% of it or so when the market tanked. I'm optimistic regarding the elections this year and that's why I havent sold it on the way down. See the tricky part is this, look at Argentine, they had to be bailed out by the IMF but since the proper reforms are in place, the returns to investors have been exponential
Some of that is inflation but there is still a lot of real gains as well.
Thats the tricky part when dealing with stock markets, especially in EMs. When things work put, they pay offf massively, when they dont, you lose a limited amount
Since my income is in USD, I'm naturally hedged against Brazil falling off a cliff but if Brazil does great and I dont own stocks, then I'm exposed to rising costs/real estate/lose a big opportunity, etc etc. I expect a market friendly person to be elected this year, and he will do what is right. If that doesnt happen, there will be an IMF bailout + higher tax burdens + reforms. In any event, if things work out, the market could pop 50-100% from here but if they dont, it will get ugly fast. At this point, I'm taking the risk (though I'm not adding to my position)
Some of that is inflation but there is still a lot of real gains as well.
Thats the tricky part when dealing with stock markets, especially in EMs. When things work put, they pay offf massively, when they dont, you lose a limited amount
Since my income is in USD, I'm naturally hedged against Brazil falling off a cliff but if Brazil does great and I dont own stocks, then I'm exposed to rising costs/real estate/lose a big opportunity, etc etc. I expect a market friendly person to be elected this year, and he will do what is right. If that doesnt happen, there will be an IMF bailout + higher tax burdens + reforms. In any event, if things work out, the market could pop 50-100% from here but if they dont, it will get ugly fast. At this point, I'm taking the risk (though I'm not adding to my position)
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