Arent a lot of these chinese tech companies great beneficiaries from Chinese barriers (like the Great Firewall) and thus they lack the innovation needed to compete globally against their US competitors? In China they can do great but what about the rest of the world?
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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I don't agree with you. I traveled China this February, and my friend showed me around.
I feel a big different comparing to the United States now.
I do not think that is called barriers, just we do not know about Chinese, if I knew Chinese, I think I also can do business there. The same thing, someone does not know about English, he or she will not take a risk to do business in the United States.
About innovation, I think I can see many different things there. If you have a chance, visit China, you will know something different from the United States.
I read Dalio's book a few months ago but I never mentioned in this journal. I liked the book, especially the concept of "believability-weighted decision making". This is something that I believed it but I never was able to articulate and make it a very concious part of my view of the world. My understanding of it is that some people are way more credible than others when it comes to certain topics. When credible people make predictions, put out ideas, etc, other people should consider those factors when making decisions.
The opposite of that is to believe in the "appeal to authority falacy", I put in quotes because I dont believe it is a fallacy at all, its actually a very rational behavior. When someone that is very credible in a topic debates someone else that isn't very credible (say Gary Kasparov and a random intermediate chess player), the ideas and arguments from the credible person should be weighted more heavily by observants then those of the other person. And that weighthing can be used to form quick opinions, make decisions, be used as a shortcut. Especially if deep research is not possible.
This is a main reason why I still feel comfortable when I read bearish statements about BTC from Bufffett, Munger, Roubini, Shiller, Tudor Jones and even Dalio himself. They simply have very little believability when it comes to new technology. Especially when compared to folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson and Marc Andressen.
Andressen gave out a great quote about Buffett in 2014 when he was told about his skepticism
"The Track record of old white men who don't understand tech crapping on tech they don't understand is still at 100%."(of failure)
The opposite of that is to believe in the "appeal to authority falacy", I put in quotes because I dont believe it is a fallacy at all, its actually a very rational behavior. When someone that is very credible in a topic debates someone else that isn't very credible (say Gary Kasparov and a random intermediate chess player), the ideas and arguments from the credible person should be weighted more heavily by observants then those of the other person. And that weighthing can be used to form quick opinions, make decisions, be used as a shortcut. Especially if deep research is not possible.
This is a main reason why I still feel comfortable when I read bearish statements about BTC from Bufffett, Munger, Roubini, Shiller, Tudor Jones and even Dalio himself. They simply have very little believability when it comes to new technology. Especially when compared to folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson and Marc Andressen.
Andressen gave out a great quote about Buffett in 2014 when he was told about his skepticism
"The Track record of old white men who don't understand tech crapping on tech they don't understand is still at 100%."(of failure)
And Roubini in particular is quite a character. I remember an interview he did with Maria Bartiromo back in 2008/2009 where he said something to the effect of "I dont try to time the market, I have all my savings in stocks, it will produce the highest return over the long-run". He was doing that despite the fact that he was all trashing the market everyday. One might call this the "Roubini barbell". You got the Taleb barbell where 90% of funds are in safe assets and 10% in highly risky assets. The Roubini barbell is 100% in risk assets but HEDGED by having a career where you trash that asset constantly and make bearish predictions on it. He has an advisor business after all. If he is right on the predictions, the consultancy business will do great, if he is wrong, his portfolio will do great.
He might even be long BTC while trashing it, who knows
He might even be long BTC while trashing it, who knows
The guy behind ZeroHedge also seems to have a Roubini Barbell portfolio. 90% of his commentary is bearish, yet it came out that he bought a piece of real estate worth over $2M, I'm sure that is not the only asset "inflated by QE" he has purchased. He might eveb consciounsly hedge his bearishness by buying stocks. One has to be very careful about roubini barbell folks, they harm the public (through bad advice) while doing opposite in their portfolio. What people do with their money tells you everything.
Soros is a great example, Soros the trader was great, probably the GOAT in trading. Soros the talker is awful, he will keep hammering the same opinions for years, even though they are totally wrong. But he doesnt mix the two, when the market moves against him, Soros the trader will take over and let the position go. I wish Soros the talker was the same as Soros the trader, because then you would be able to learn a lot more from his interviews
Soros is a great example, Soros the trader was great, probably the GOAT in trading. Soros the talker is awful, he will keep hammering the same opinions for years, even though they are totally wrong. But he doesnt mix the two, when the market moves against him, Soros the trader will take over and let the position go. I wish Soros the talker was the same as Soros the trader, because then you would be able to learn a lot more from his interviews
https://seekingalpha.com/article/126229-the-roubini-portfolio
"Roubini, as a professor at NYU, has a 401(k) -- and that is invested in a broad range of domestic and international equities. Whatever percentage of his NYU salary that Roubini puts into his 401(k), then, will indeed be allocated 100% to equities. But apart from that, Roubini is 100% in cash. "
So, it looks like other than his emergency funds, he just buys equities
"Roubini, as a professor at NYU, has a 401(k) -- and that is invested in a broad range of domestic and international equities. Whatever percentage of his NYU salary that Roubini puts into his 401(k), then, will indeed be allocated 100% to equities. But apart from that, Roubini is 100% in cash. "
So, it looks like other than his emergency funds, he just buys equities
Just wanted to add a little colour to the ICO thoughts here: All the action is in the pre ICO stage. Players with capital are forming pools to get in the earliest and negotiate the biggest discount.
Are ICOs dead? IMO, you have to be picky. Follow a set of rules such as: Low hard cap, massive hype, no pre-ICO, etc. Credits was an example of one that 5x'ed from ICO price in March when crypto was getting killed.
Are ICOs dead? IMO, you have to be picky. Follow a set of rules such as: Low hard cap, massive hype, no pre-ICO, etc. Credits was an example of one that 5x'ed from ICO price in March when crypto was getting killed.
I just came back from a trip to Hong Kong and Macau. My impressions were
-The Chinese (HK Chinese but I assume it also applies to Mainland Chinese as well) have a really strong work ethic. I went to Paraguai a few years ago, on Sundays and holidays you couldn't find a place open to save your life. In HK, almost everything is open Sundays, its like night and day. I found a lot of places open even on the Budda birthday holiday. I was told by a local that they get 14 days a year of vacation and lot of people work 6-7 days a week. People are so busy working its unbelivable. Of course, that is all deeply mentally unhealhy and I can see a lot of that in the rudeness, bad moods and cold personalities of the people there (especially for a Brazilian used to warm people) as I get in the same state they are in when I'm overworked. But despite that, it does the question of how strong they can be economically and how well they can compete. I guess I respect them more now, if you everybody is working like a dog like that, they are probably tough competitors in a lot of areas (though they still probably lack in innovation). Maybe the 21st Century will really be the century of China
-Their degree of technological development is pretty high. A lot of places there will take apple/google/samsung pay along with other instant payment methods from Mastercard and VISA. They also have their subway card (Octopus) which can be used in so many places for instant payments (and in fact, it can even go negative so you dont fail a payment). So many people own smartphones its crazy. I even saw an old lady wearing an apple watch and one playing pokemon go on the street (and she was like 60)
-Real estate prices are crazy high but there are some workarounds for people there. I met a girl who lived quite far away from the Central, in fact, it was close to mainland China. But the benefit was the she paid around like 4K HKD in rent a month vs 10-20K HKD she would need to pay to live in a better location. She was an immigrant, in fact there are a lot of immigrants running this 'income arbitrage'. They live with their bosses (in the case of domestic helpers/nannies) or live really far away (or in tiny places) but earn HK level wages, this enables them to accumulate wealth a lot faster than they would in their home countries. Thats the great thing about living in an expensive but high income area, you can always compromise in certain expenses in order to accumulate wealth
-Being exposed to such a different culture and world helped me learn more about myself and what I want out of my life. Its something that people should do more, sometimes only by being in a completly different place you learn little things about you that you normally you would not
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Good points, but not very comprehensive, I think.
Can I ask did you visit Mainland China?
Mainland China is different from Hong Kong and Macau.
I would recommend you visit Shenzhen, which is beside Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai. I remember, when I visited Mainland China, everything in the big cities is modern, they called those big cities as the first level cities. If my friend did not show me the countryside, I would not believe that China is a developing country, but actually, it is.
Real estate prices are high in big cities in China. I think is normal in a city with a large population. Demand and supply is imbalance, because more and more people go to big cities to seek opportunities. For example, the real estate prices in San Francisco are much higher than that in Oregon.
I think people there can accept new things than people in the United States. No doubt, now many technologies are created in Silicon Valley, but most of them only can be popular in some cities with a large population. I believe larger population create higher level civilization.
I didnt visit Mainland China. I wasnt doing research or anything like that, just enjoying some free time without any plans. But I was told by HK Chinese people that Mainland Chinese are even more rude than HK people. I assume some of that is related to ridiculous work hours and no vacations. I know I become like that when my life is out of balance and I'm overworked. I bet there is some cultural tradition thing involved as well but I suspect a lot comes from lifestyle (deep down everybody wants to connect and be liked by others, but some things get in the way of people on their path there).
So Im assuming mainland chinese work as much or even harder than HK people. Which to me is insane. If there is one thing that I learned is how much more I need to work on my life-work balance. I will never be the best trader in the world, nor the richest. I bet those best in the world people are pretty miserable too, despite having achieved those things (cuz they sacrificed balance to get there). What I want to be is to be the most balanced trader in the world, or the happiest. Or, at least to be the one that tries to achieve that the most. To me, that is a better goal