If AMZN/WMT/Another big player says they will let people buy with BTC (and with avg transaction costs of $5-$10 and wait times of 30min-1 hour, I doubt they would do this), then I will rebuy. If BTC implodes 70% and then do a moving average cross over (100 over the 200 or something like that) then I will rebuy but at this point, it just doesnt seem to be making any sense to remain a bull
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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USDTether transfers are also not working out (because of the hack), this might only help fuel the panic when it starts. People wont be able to move around this pseudo USD, they will have to move BTC and other coins, with slower transaction times (the network will be overloaded in a crash). Assets that will be falling in value. I`m sure people wont like that, I certaintly dont. As much as I dont like USDTether, for quick transactions among exchanges, it works, because you know how much you will get. If BTC is crashing and you move it around (say from Polio to Kraken, with the idea of cashing out at kraken), you might be down 20% by the time the transaction is confirmed. We got many elements for a crash
Today I will sell out the rest of my coins. Price is accelerating to the upside, crash risks are rising. If I dont take profits now, then when would I? I rather be out and monitor the market with my head clear for a potential short. I do plan to increase my GBTC spread trade tomorrow. This week has been pretty bad for the GBTC premium, I bet next week it gets worse
It really looked like BTC was going to fall apart for a while today, after the GDAX price went full retarded ($4k above Bitfinex and Kraken). I tried to send BTC to Coinbase to sell it there but of course, they were down. I dont even know who was doing all that trading on GDAX/Coinbase, the site seemed totally down the whole day. The sell-off held up quite a bit, so at this point, it might have more juice in it. Heck, even a final run to $20k can't be ruled out, but im going to sit it out (on the long side). I took my gains and moved on, at this point I rather focus on trying to catch a short. If I lose a bunch on the long side, it will hurt my ability to trade on the down move (i think). hopefully I'm lucky and it happens during US trading hours (using an extra short on GBTC, without BTC hedges). I could short on Kraken and I might but its going to be hard as hell to get filled, heck even to login. When this market falls apart, I expect some huge vol and outages galore
The risk to longs now is that BTC will be in a 'taleb distribution' type payoff situation. The odds are in favor that it will appreciate further by some amount but the risk is that if it doesn't, it will drop by a giant amount
But it going parabolic, so its possible that it will produce big gains or big losses instead of small gains, but in that case those gains need to be taken, because this type of action will create its own downfall. I have seen this many times on small cap momo stocks that go completely nuts
The risk to longs now is that BTC will be in a 'taleb distribution' type payoff situation. The odds are in favor that it will appreciate further by some amount but the risk is that if it doesn't, it will drop by a giant amount
But it going parabolic, so its possible that it will produce big gains or big losses instead of small gains, but in that case those gains need to be taken, because this type of action will create its own downfall. I have seen this many times on small cap momo stocks that go completely nuts
Cryptos held up well the debut of futures, this could change fast but its a sign of strenght. I closed my spread trade (at a profit) because it widened today and that was surprising action. I also closed XNET. I will nibble long on certain cryptos on small size, testing waters and reassessing as time passes. Why? This is a convexity market, its not one to be too attached to bearish views (as they are anti-convexity), long should be the default. Being small and in prevents dumb market fighting for months/years as the market goes exponential. Being small is much closer to being medium sized or being big than being all out and complaining. Psychologically, it makes a HUGE difference
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Here is a fact that most articles dont talk about. 90%+ of cryptocharts look like this when priced in BTC
I look at dozens daily and they are very similar to this, sometimes they are in a channel, little downtrends, strong downtrends but its rare to see one that is trending up when priced in BTC.
What does that mean? I dont know, but I'm sure there is something to this that will lead to something significant soon
I look at dozens daily and they are very similar to this, sometimes they are in a channel, little downtrends, strong downtrends but its rare to see one that is trending up when priced in BTC.
What does that mean? I dont know, but I'm sure there is something to this that will lead to something significant soon
I've been watching the BTC/ETH ratio (but expressed as the inverse of what your chart shows). It went above 40 recently. So at some point people realized that they could remain in cryptocurrencies but avoid the crash risk by buying something else. Which possibly explains why ETH and Litecoin have done so well in the last 24-48 hours. Now the BTC/ETH ratio has declined to about 31.70.
https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/eth/charts/BTC
An even bigger move for the BTC/LTC ratio, from above 166 to 62.50
https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/ltc/charts/BTC
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